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Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

latimes.com

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Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#101

Post by avn2109 »

kpil wrote: post #76
beat wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is a growth company that could be a giant. BMW is a stable old blue chip. Different market values entirely. At the individual car level, Tesla S is priced to match mid/high end sedans from BMW, Mercedes, and Audi, so that's the quality level they need to hit. And such quality isn't about reliability so much as fit and finish. Tesla is doing extremely well against very established competition in that regard.

Tesla is showing what a car can be - Excellent UX, a nontraditional but really nice drivetrain, a good UI for the secondary systems with frequent software upgrades, etc. It's not hard to see the trend - it's been coming for the last 15 years at least. All drivetrains will be electric, and connected to a battery and optionally a range extender of some sort. The control panel will be all big screens and apps. Meanwhile…

>> "The control panel will be all big screens and apps."

Noooo - tactile feedback is so important in vehicle subsystem control! [0] Please do not take away my knobs and dials.

[0] http://www.ecnmag.com/article/2014/01/keeping-feel-automotiv...

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#102

Post by blisterpeanuts »

crabasa wrote: post #85

Comparing Tesla to existing car companies misses the point entirely. Telsa is an energy platform company that is investing in delivering (Supercharger network) and storing (Gigafactory) energy. Cars are certainly the current "killer app" today, but are likely to be followed by many other applications in the future.

Yes, it's starting to look as though the cars are merely a shell for the very profitable batteries they're going to be cranking out in Nevada. Perhaps the whole Tesla car idea was a buyout play -- get established, build a name, then sell the whole thing to GM for $30 billion.

Once the battery plant has economies of scale, they'll be fueling a whole new generation of electric vehicles by other makers, perhaps including the upcoming Apple and Google auto-pilot offerings (the Nexus car? the iCar?).

Then there is the home and small office market for backup power, storage of daytime solar energy, off-grid and remote locations e.g. ranger stations in national parks. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#103

Post by toddmorey »

bri3d wrote: post #42
pkorzeniewski wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't take the owner satisfaction ratings too seriously, people who buy Tesla cars are mostly rich enthusiasts of new technologies and will quietly deal with a lot of issues before starting to criticize the car. If someone doesn't care about the electric engine, there's really no reason to buy a Tesla - for the same price you can get a much more luxurious german car with proven technology. It's similar to people…

From watching a few friends own Teslas, it seems that they offer a superior repair and maintenance experience to many German car dealers, which helps with owner satisfaction in the face of reliability issues. It certainly doesn't bode well for Tesla's attempt to move to high-volume, lower-margin production, though.

I think they are doing the right thing and exerting a lot of effort and eating a lot of cost to make right for their customers. Which makes me feel better about the ownership experience but nervous about the company's path to profit.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#104

Post by makomk »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #39
encoderer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out the PEG ratio, which factors in growth. Rapid and sustained growth is not guaranteed and bad press can inhibit it. But you need that growth to justify the valuation. Priced for perfection.

Priced to be the supplier for every other vehicle company that needs batteries, every utility that needs utility scale battery storage, and possibly even an Uber competitor. Properly priced.

When it comes to batteries, Tesla are more of an integrator than a manufacturer - they package up commercially available, off-the-shelf cells into batteries with some cooling and a mostly off-the-shelf battery management solution (based around a Texas Instruments IC marketed specifically for battery management in electric cars, the BQ76PL536A). That's not a high-margin business to be in because there's not much of a barrier to entry for new competitors.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#105

Post by thewopr »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #98

Oddly, I was just thinking the other day about how Tesla had a reputation for being a bit prototype-y but I hadn't heard anything about it recently, so I concluded they'd massively improved. Based on this they're better, but still not great. Was it not Consumer Reports that had a string of issues with their first model S, or was that another car magazine?

Are you thinking about the NY times article? http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the...

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#106

Post by petersellers »

brianstorms wrote: post #82

My 2013 Model S has had its share of issues. My car is on its third drivetrain. Am I unhappy about it? Nope. Was it a hassle? A little. Was it a show-stopper? Nope. Did Tesla always take care of the issues to my satisfaction? Absolutely. Would I buy another Tesla? Not only YES but I cannot imagine ever buying anything else ever again. Tesla's huge weakness continues to be communication between company and customer. T…

As someone who typically drives cars outside of their warranty period, I don't understand the lack of concern about reliability after your 3rd drivetrain. I suppose if you are leasing the car that is one thing, but with that kind of warranty work I would be extremely hesitant to buy a used Tesla.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#108

Post by oldmanjay »

avn2109 wrote: post #101
kpil wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is showing what a car can be - Excellent UX, a nontraditional but really nice drivetrain, a good UI for the secondary systems with frequent software upgrades, etc. It's not hard to see the trend - it's been coming for the last 15 years at least. All drivetrains will be electric, and connected to a battery and optionally a range extender of some sort. The control panel will be all big screens and apps. Meanwhile…

>> "The control panel will be all big screens and apps." Noooo - tactile feedback is so important in vehicle subsystem control! [0] Please do not take away my knobs and dials. [0] http://www.ecnmag.com/article/2014/01/keeping-feel-automotiv...

Not to ruin your day, but they're taking away your knobs, dials, and control of the vehicle.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#109

Post by joosters »

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #90
joosters wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually, yes. But internal combustion engines have a head start spanning decades of fixes and reliability improvements.

Isn't one of the Tesla's (and other EVs') advantages that the electric drive train is mechanically simpler, not to mention smaller, than an ICE? No cylinders, starters, water pump, oxygen-fuel mix gauge, and dozens of other things that can and do go wrong. On the other hand, it sounds like Tesla's software and firmware are pretty complicated, meaning bugs in the 1.0 release, updates that may need to be rolled back if…

This reminded me of a reddit comment about Australian(?) army vehicles: they deliberately use older car technology like distributers and carburetors because modern electrical systems are far too complicated to repair out in the middle of nowhere. They might be OK against lightning strikes.

Then again, with any luck the charge will travel through the metal chassis and avoid ruining any components. You're definitely protected from lightning sitting inside the car. The engine? Maybe. Could be a fun experiment with high voltage :)

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#110

Post by VLM »

briandear wrote: post #36

I wonder how many CR editors shorter Tesla stock before this was published. It wouldn't even be considered insider trading. I don't really put much stock in CR, unfortunately, the markets did -- quite unfairly actually since most folks buying Teslas aren't doing comparison shopping using CR.

There is likely some confusion here. Look at this quote from the article:

"Just last month, the magazine awarded one version of the car — the all-wheel-drive Tesla Model S P85D — 103 points, a tally so high it broke the Consumer Reports road-test ratings system."

So last month's issue is published, hmm, where do you go from here, up or down? That's the time you buy into a short because you know the next news can't possibly be as good.

Its not insider trading if you get your short position the week after last month's magazine comes out, yet its almost guaranteed profit.

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