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Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

variety.com

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Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#41

Post by gleb »

This study should be an embarrassment to a company that cultivates a reputation of knowing something about statistics. It's like the last 500 years of statisticians working on survival analysis didn't happen.

Their conclusions are not supported by the data, the study methodology is flawed, and their "average of averages" metric would have gotten me an F from my 8th grade physics teacher.

The key methodology problem is this: "A hooked episode was defined when 70% of viewers who watched that episode went on to complete season one." What you are actually want to know is after which episode the retention curve flattens out. With their methodology they'd claim a "hooked episode" even in case show's retention followed exponential decay (constant % drop after each episode) - meaning there is no "hooked" episode at all, and retention curve never flattens out.

"Hooked episodes were first identified by country, then averaged to create the global hooked episode." This is just awful. Again, high-school physics - don't average averages. I understand what they are trying to do but this is not how you do it.

And to add insult to the injury they stuck a House of Cards spoiler in the first sentence.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#43

Post by izzydata »

abhv wrote: post #7

This is a press release from Netflix (no link to the underlying study). https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/getNewsSummary.do?newsId=26... Except they use the data to make stupid conclusions: "However, in our research of more than 20 shows across 16 markets, we found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot. This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made." I…

"incentive problem with binging"

The user may potentially watch everything they want within a couple weeks and then unsubscribe. They would make more money if they were forced to be subscribed for longer in order to finish shows.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#44

Post by chrisdbaldwin »

izzydata wrote: post #43
abhv wrote: post #7

This is a press release from Netflix (no link to the underlying study). https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/getNewsSummary.do?newsId=26... Except they use the data to make stupid conclusions: "However, in our research of more than 20 shows across 16 markets, we found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot. This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made." I…

"incentive problem with binging" The user may potentially watch everything they want within a couple weeks and then unsubscribe. They would make more money if they were forced to be subscribed for longer in order to finish shows.

>forced to be subscribed for longer in order to finish shows.

Which is exactly how HBO has been able to keep me subscribed for months on end. I thought I'd cancel it after Silicon Valley finished. HBO comes out with good content every week to keep me hooked.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#45

Post by sweezyjeezy »

zeckalpha wrote: post #24
sweezyjeezy wrote: post #10

Seems a bit weak - I don't think you can really drill down onto one episode as one that 'hooks' a viewer, rather than all the subsequent episodes being excellent. At least, this article didn't convince me.

Think of the season like a funnel. What's the drop off for each episode? What's the likelihood if they've made it this far they'll watch the rest of the season?

...right, but then I'd rather see the funnel than which episode gets you to 70%, because I don't think without that context you can really say anything about the episode.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#46

Post by jghn »

ssharp wrote: post #31
jghn wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is certainly true for me. If I have any inkling I'll like a show I don't even let it infect my opinion if I dislike the pilot, as that's normally he case. Heck, for shows that have been around a while sometimes I don't even care for the first season but keep watching - some of those have turned into my favorites The Wire is the only show coming to mind where I was completely sold by he first ep.

I usually watch shows in a similar way, which is also why I try to wait until all of the first season is available on-demand before starting a show. I'm also fairly cautious with shows and waiting until the full season has run allows a lot of critical opinion to have already surfaced. Regarding the Wire, I've watched the series three times now and I'm still not sure the first episode is a good hook, or I even started…

There are many shows that for whatever reason I don't start watching initially but then enough people I trust like them that I'll watch. Those are the ones that fit the pattern we're discussing.

There are many other shows which I don't have high hopes for but start watching just because they're on. For those I won't give it the full season but I also don't judge just by the first few eps either. These are the sorts of shows that often don't make it past a season or two anyways so it's a bit academic :)

I like OitNB but have the same issues you state. It's a fine show but not great by any means. The sort of show I put on while I'm reading blogs and such.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#47

Post by surge »

knodi123 wrote: post #40
surge wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I was hooked on Dare Devil, The IT Crowd, House of Cards and Firefly on the first episode, but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them. I'm sure there is a key point for most shows that most who watch up to that point end up watching the whole thing. BSG I remember took 10-12 episodes before I really got into it, and I only went that far because people wouldn…

> but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them. I can detect no commonalities between House of Cards and The IT Crowd!

That's why I qualified "for most of them".

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#48

Post by fluidcruft »

tfgg wrote: post #30
greatthanks wrote: post #27

I am absolutely not at all whatsoever impressed with Netflix' data science capabilities. They waste one row for: - watch it again ... - they suggest stuff based on what I added to my list, but didn't watch yet - they suggest movies based on what I started to watch but didn't finish - as if that wasn't an indicator for that I didn't like it - ... All those companies suggesting on varies channels how nifty and smart th…

Do you think that those design decisions are not backed by data demonstrating better engagement levels versus other interface layouts? I'm not saying that their interface is perfect, but I don't see how you can make sweeping claims about their data science capabilities based on your one data point of disliking their interface.

I think at some point people assume others are more competent than they actually are. I mean, honestly, here you are defending Netflix based on nothing more than stereotypes and projecting competence into them--when the linked PR story is so ridiculously methodologically flawed that a rational observer would seriously question their basic mathematical and psychological literacy.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#49

Post by justinlardinois »

> “This won’t have any direct effect on the creative process for our showrunners/creators,” a Netflix rep explained.

Even if Netflix doesn't force it on production teams, you know someone somewhere down the chain is going to have this in the back of their head.

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