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Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

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Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#31

Post by ssharp »

jghn wrote: post #21
abhv wrote: post #7

This is a press release from Netflix (no link to the underlying study). https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/getNewsSummary.do?newsId=26... Except they use the data to make stupid conclusions: "However, in our research of more than 20 shows across 16 markets, we found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot. This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made." I…

This is certainly true for me. If I have any inkling I'll like a show I don't even let it infect my opinion if I dislike the pilot, as that's normally he case. Heck, for shows that have been around a while sometimes I don't even care for the first season but keep watching - some of those have turned into my favorites The Wire is the only show coming to mind where I was completely sold by he first ep.

I usually watch shows in a similar way, which is also why I try to wait until all of the first season is available on-demand before starting a show. I'm also fairly cautious with shows and waiting until the full season has run allows a lot of critical opinion to have already surfaced.

Regarding the Wire, I've watched the series three times now and I'm still not sure the first episode is a good hook, or I even started to get hooked. What was a big surprise to me the third time through is how I still get transfixed on season 4.

One case where I was hooked by the third episode but ultimately gave up on is Orange is the New Black. I found most of the first season fairly compelling, but by the end, it was apparent the show was going down a road that I wasn't interested in. I would have preferred to keep the series relatively realistic, run a season or two in prison and then focus the end on the transition back. Instead, they kept the main character in prison, seemingly indefinitely, and started putting a lot more focus on the other characters. I skipped around season three a little bit and was deeply disappointed at how it treated meaty topics like private prison profiteering so flippantly. I suppose The Wire did set the bar unreasonably high for dealing with those sorts of topics.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#32

Post by fitzwatermellow »

I wonder if there had ever been a show in the history of television in which 70% of viewers who watched the pilot made it to the finale. Fortunately, the article states Netflix has no plans to "rejigger" (i like that word, plan on using it more) its method of greenlighting shows. Which probably, despite the enormous quantity of data they collect, still resembles something akin to that scene in "Network," where they consider doing a docu-drama about the Symbionese Liberation Army.

You can count me as one of the 30% that never makes it past the first ten minutes of even the most acclaimed serial content. I just like movies. But out of curiosity I did watch the extended trailer of the 500 Startups reality show "Bazillion Dollar Club." There is a scene where a team is finalizing a prototype with its sourced design consultants. Its all dudes and they select a shape that is, well, let's just say suggestively masculine in its proportion. They decide they need to counterbalance their opinion with the female perspective and invite the ladies on staff to give their opinion. The women choose a completely different design. Soft, with rounded curves. But most importantly they have a visceral negative reaction to the men's choice. But the startup leadership completely ignores what I would consider a very important data point in favour of an arbitrary metric. That "70% of men make electronic purchasing decisions for their households." Completely ignoring the fact that generally, men don't really care about the appearance of their gadgets, just that they function properly. And that women generally tend to make the design choices at home. Obviously a very broad generalization but still.

The lesson here is about letting stats influence faulty reasoning while ignoring intuition. It doesn't appear that Netflix is allowing data to dictate programming. Yet.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#33

Post by SyneRyder »

greatthanks wrote: post #27

I am absolutely not at all whatsoever impressed with Netflix' data science capabilities. They waste one row for: - watch it again ... - they suggest stuff based on what I added to my list, but didn't watch yet - they suggest movies based on what I started to watch but didn't finish - as if that wasn't an indicator for that I didn't like it - ... All those companies suggesting on varies channels how nifty and smart th…

If you don't like Netflix's ratings recommendations, you might like to try MovieLens.org. They let you choose between different algorithms & provide some additional stats (eg your average rating per genre, unusual likes & dislikes, distribution of ratings by decade).

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#34

Post by JoeAltmaier »

SyneRyder wrote: post #33
greatthanks wrote: post #27

I am absolutely not at all whatsoever impressed with Netflix' data science capabilities. They waste one row for: - watch it again ... - they suggest stuff based on what I added to my list, but didn't watch yet - they suggest movies based on what I started to watch but didn't finish - as if that wasn't an indicator for that I didn't like it - ... All those companies suggesting on varies channels how nifty and smart th…

If you don't like Netflix's ratings recommendations, you might like to try MovieLens.org. They let you choose between different algorithms & provide some additional stats (eg your average rating per genre, unusual likes & dislikes, distribution of ratings by decade).

Cool! But at some point, providing stats yourself is just fudging the algorithm. Why not just browse those categories yourself, instead of diddle an algorithm and seeing if it predicted correctly? Except maybe that's fun too.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#35

Post by zaphar »

Here's what I'd like to know. Do they have any data on the optimum length of a plot arc for a shows? There are a number of shows I've gotten hooked and then around about season 5-7 I've dropped because it became obvious they were just milking it and inventing gratuitous plot extensions instead of ending it cleanly.

Some shows can go for really long runs because the plot arcs tend to be 1-3 episodes in length. The Law and Order style of show. Anything that goes multiple seasons in length just seems to lose me after at most 2 plot arcs. Maybe I just get burnt out?

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#36

Post by surge »

abhv wrote: post #7

This is a press release from Netflix (no link to the underlying study). https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/getNewsSummary.do?newsId=26... Except they use the data to make stupid conclusions: "However, in our research of more than 20 shows across 16 markets, we found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot. This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made." I…

Well I was hooked on Dare Devil, The IT Crowd, House of Cards and Firefly on the first episode, but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them. I'm sure there is a key point for most shows that most who watch up to that point end up watching the whole thing. BSG I remember took 10-12 episodes before I really got into it, and I only went that far because people wouldn't shut up about how good it was. There are also shows I really liked but either dragged on or I just lost interest in or was just frustrated by the characters (The Killing, Buffy, etc)

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#37

Post by pinaceae »

fitzwatermellow wrote: post #32

I wonder if there had ever been a show in the history of television in which 70% of viewers who watched the pilot made it to the finale. Fortunately, the article states Netflix has no plans to "rejigger" (i like that word, plan on using it more) its method of greenlighting shows. Which probably, despite the enormous quantity of data they collect, still resembles something akin to that scene in "Network," where they c…

any stats to backup your claim that men generally don't care about the appearance of a gadget?

Seems there are whole industries begging to differ, starting with cars.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#38

Post by ttkeil »

zaphar wrote: post #35

Here's what I'd like to know. Do they have any data on the optimum length of a plot arc for a shows? There are a number of shows I've gotten hooked and then around about season 5-7 I've dropped because it became obvious they were just milking it and inventing gratuitous plot extensions instead of ending it cleanly. Some shows can go for really long runs because the plot arcs tend to be 1-3 episodes in length. The Law…

> There are a number of shows I've gotten hooked and then around about season 5-7 I've dropped because it became obvious they were just milking it and inventing gratuitous plot extensions instead of ending it cleanly.

This is what I'm worried about with 'House of Cards.' It feels like they might have 1-2 good seasons left, but unless Frank suddenly decides to deceive his way into becoming world dictator, I'm convinced that they need to end the show in fewer seasons than it already has.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#39

Post by JoeAltmaier »

greatthanks wrote: post #27

I am absolutely not at all whatsoever impressed with Netflix' data science capabilities. They waste one row for: - watch it again ... - they suggest stuff based on what I added to my list, but didn't watch yet - they suggest movies based on what I started to watch but didn't finish - as if that wasn't an indicator for that I didn't like it - ... All those companies suggesting on varies channels how nifty and smart th…

They list movies I've watched and rated! In every category. Some categories consist almost entirely of movies I've watched and rated.

Its not only unimpressive; its actually incompetent.

Re: Netflix Data Reveals When TV Shows Hook Viewers

#40

Post by knodi123 »

surge wrote: post #36
abhv wrote: post #7

This is a press release from Netflix (no link to the underlying study). https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/getNewsSummary.do?newsId=26... Except they use the data to make stupid conclusions: "However, in our research of more than 20 shows across 16 markets, we found that no one was ever hooked on the pilot. This gives us confidence that giving our members all episodes at once is more aligned with how fans are made." I…

Well I was hooked on Dare Devil, The IT Crowd, House of Cards and Firefly on the first episode, but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them. I'm sure there is a key point for most shows that most who watch up to that point end up watching the whole thing. BSG I remember took 10-12 episodes before I really got into it, and I only went that far because people wouldn…

> but these shows pander to me beyond just plot, I'm sure you can detect the theme for most of them.

I can detect no commonalities between House of Cards and The IT Crowd!

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