Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 433 posts

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#251

Post by duderific »

cryoshon wrote: post #222
acjohnson55 wrote: post #152

A whole lot of aphorisms in this commentary about falling knives and dead cats, but very little actual information. If you're trying to time the bottom you may as well take your money to the blackjack table. The quants are probably going to make a bunch of money, but if you're just a regular person, you should probably just continue making your regularly scheduled 401k contributions and diversified investments. Histo…

So the assumption is that stock prices increase on an infinite time scale? Seems a bit naive...

Probably as measured with fiat currency, which can be created out of thin air, yes, stock prices will "increase" infinitely.

Measured against an actual real-world asset such as gold, oil etc., probably not. http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-h...

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#253

Post by yc1010 »

acconrad wrote: post #202
rsmckinney wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Historically speaking" Historically speaking, when has the Fed kept interest rates at ZERO for 7 years? After pumping QE full throttle at $80B/mo? The economy has been in continuous "recovery" mode since '08, but not much has actually recovered. The market is going to collapse my friend because, historically speaking, we are in dark, uncharted territory and have lost our way back.

We were also in uncharted territory when the stock market collapsed in 1929. The market had never crashed like that before. The market had also never crashed like 2000 because the internet tech sector had never existed like that before. The market had also never crashed like in 2008 because home loans had never been so lax in terms of lending such highly-leveraged loans to such low quality lenders. Every new crash li…

So whats the cause now? China being a big bubble??

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#254

Post by rdtsc »

anonu wrote: post #212
dave_sullivan wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but those quants are going to make a bunch of money... There's a cottage industry forming around finding market distortions caused by bad algos. You'd think that there wouldn't be a bunch of bots running around making stupid decisions, but there are a lot of bots that haven't been updated in some time and were put in place according to some idealized rule-based model in some esoteric area of finance that one guy…

Someone really bit the dust this morning in ETF land. Lots of US ETFs were down 10,20,30% and were halted due to circuit breakers. There is some quant/market-making firm out there that is really paying for this today.

Could one make a bot to make money off crashes like these (like gp post suggested). It would seem circuit breakers would limit that possibility, and also, didn't they revert trades in the past during such flash crashes as well?

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#255

Post by bunderbunder »

6stringmerc wrote: post #224
bunderbunder wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically we've always been in dark, uncharted territory. There are only two things you can guarantee about the market: First, it will fluctuate. Second, those fluctuations will be unwittingly used as a Rorschach test by everyone with a political axe to grind.

Actually, I think it's fair to point out that the sophistication of the financial markets, vis-a-vis fiat currency, drastically outstrips the capabilities of regulators and financial decision makers to comprehend and/or manage with any believable outcome.

It's less fair, though, to say, "Nobody knows with what will happen next, therefore X will happen next," as the grandparent did. Surrounding the argument from uncertainty with a few popular talking points doesn't make it any less fallacious.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#256

Post by ArkyBeagle »

6stringmerc wrote: post #221
rsmckinney wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On earth, a zero interest rate indicates a sick or at least stalled economy. The rate cannot be held at zero for much longer without risking a deeper debt via evermore unhealthy credit expansion, yet the consequences of raising it, even a little, will likely crush global markets as investors react etc. There is no question this economy is quite sick and has been breathing with aid of the Fed's iron lung so long that…

Also of note: US worker demographics do not substantiate the narrative that a recovery is going on. Jobs added are typically in the service industry, and a large percentage of those are part-time situations. Also the only age group that has added jobs since 2008 is the 55 and up cohort, which only further punishes the under-employed youth with significant student loan / other debt burdens and stalls the general progr…

We will retire and the Fed will end up bailing out the IOUs on the SS trust fund.

This is not a problem so long as it's done once. All SS money ends up strengthening the metric formerly known as M3, so it'll work out just fine.

The problem is the closely-held belief that There Must Be Suffering or we're not being responsible adults. The economy has been liquidity constrained ( outside of bubbles ) since 1980, with the odd 24 or 12 month period off.

http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/3212.html

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#257

Post by ef4 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #216
rsmckinney wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Historically speaking" Historically speaking, when has the Fed kept interest rates at ZERO for 7 years? After pumping QE full throttle at $80B/mo? The economy has been in continuous "recovery" mode since '08, but not much has actually recovered. The market is going to collapse my friend because, historically speaking, we are in dark, uncharted territory and have lost our way back.

> After pumping QE full throttle at $80B/mo? They did for a while. That part's over, though.

As those bonds mature, the Fed is continually buying more to keep their balance relatively constant. Nothing is "over" until they manage to withdraw all that extra liquidity.

Which is the tricky part.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#259

Post by ArkyBeagle »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #216
rsmckinney wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Historically speaking" Historically speaking, when has the Fed kept interest rates at ZERO for 7 years? After pumping QE full throttle at $80B/mo? The economy has been in continuous "recovery" mode since '08, but not much has actually recovered. The market is going to collapse my friend because, historically speaking, we are in dark, uncharted territory and have lost our way back.

> After pumping QE full throttle at $80B/mo? They did for a while. That part's over, though.

The $xxxxB sat in banks as excess reserves that the Fed paid interest on. None of it hit the real economy.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#260

Post by PaulHoule »

pbreit wrote: post #248
grellas wrote: post #238

People's investment philosophy will vary and tolerance for risk will play a major role in it all. My own view is this, and it is based on a lifetime of having made all the typical mistakes. Steady is the best way to go for your investable funds. That means, go with stocks for a decent segment of your investments but temper this with investments that will help preserve capital when things get rocky. Keep a ratio betwe…

Better: make a core position in Vanguard LifeStrategy.

best: buy $XIV today
Post reply on HN