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Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

nytimes.com

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Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#91

Post by happyscrappy »

cryoshon wrote: post #76
topkai22 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporate profits have been good, GDP has been rising at a decent rate, consumer confidence has been looking OK. Statistically, the economy has been looking alright, although the distribution of benefits continues to be unequal.

Staggeringly unequal benefits distribution makes for an unhealthy economy. We don't describe the economy of Mexico or Brazil to be healthy even when they are at high employment and growing GDP mostly because the burgeoning economy doesn't produce a similar ripple in their societies.

Basket case economies are reflected in bond yields. The US pays little to borrow money because it is a safe haven. That may not jive with your world view but people that invest on their ideological dogma are quickly separated from their money.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#92

Post by peteretep »

MCRed wrote: post #58
ramblerman wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. This cognitive fallacy of "I knew" and "I was saying it long ago" etc... really irks me. Especially in something like stocks you are 100% right, put your money where your mouth is and spare us the story of your grand predictive prowesses.

I predicted the 2008 crisis in 2001. (Well an article on http://mises.org made it clear it would happen.) This was before the housing bubble started to inflate, and was easy to expect due to the changes in the CRA and the artificially low interest rates. I profited from the bubble quite well, decided the top had been hit when things got really wonky and got out of the market in 2007. I was a year early, but I'm not c…

The problem with a sample size of 1 is that you could well have just gotten lucky

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#93

Post by valarauca1 »

th0waway wrote: post #65
valarauca1 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China (as we know it) can't suffering economic down turn. The Communists largely maintain power though the threat of Its us or chaos . Which before and during the communist rise China was pretty bad off. This is more or less the social contract we make your life better , you give up your rights . If it becomes clear the central government can't control the economy. We'll likely see a rise in anti-government protests.

more like "obey or die"

That's more or less US anti-communist propaganda.

I've been to china once, lived with Chinese Nationals for several years, and currently telecommute with partners in China. There is wide spread support for the party. People do understand that the chinese system is unique, and not necessarily the only government system. They simply believe it is better.

Which from a socio-economic outlook it kind of has been for the past ~30 years in terms of industrialization and infrastructure construction. People have lived their entire lives where the idea of questioning the party seemed stupid simply because the party was, and has been right for their whole life. Not because of life or death punishment. Simply looking around and seeing the cities and lights were the only proof needed.

The party ties its sucess to the sucess of the nation. Which is really what all political parties do, lest we forget Bill Clinton's, Its the Economy Stupid. Economic downturn is a crack in that armor. Proof the Party isn't by itself responsible for the economy, proof the party doesn't have absolute control of the up turn. If the party is wrong on the economy, what else could they be wrong on?

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#94

Post by cryoshon »

branchless wrote: post #42
cryoshon wrote: post #19

It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…

Sorry but how do you know enough to "predict" a September 2015 meltdown and then um and ah about whether this might be a correction? It's 6 days short of September and you are not sure? Pardon my skepticism.

Hey man, I have an amateur's knowledge of the market, but I keep up with geopolitics.

I didn't make this call based off of technical knowledge, more of an unscientific gut feeling based off a ton of factors I probably can't even name in detail.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#95

Post by peteretep »

FilterSweep wrote: post #78
andrelaszlo wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all." If you predicted it, then it should at least make you rich? :)

I'm guessing most HN commenters don't have the liquidity to become rich off a crash, unless they had knowledge in specific industries and companies that were set to get hit hardest. Not all Chinese sectors of industry are equally hurt by this collapse. Besides, it wasn't just this commenter who predicted it. Many have before. In fact, even the laypress TV news like 60-Minutes have pointed out issues that will cause m…

People have been saying the Chinese economy will crash for well over a decade. Wish I'd gone all in ten years ago...

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#96

Post by coldtea »

cryoshon wrote: post #76
topkai22 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corporate profits have been good, GDP has been rising at a decent rate, consumer confidence has been looking OK. Statistically, the economy has been looking alright, although the distribution of benefits continues to be unequal.

Staggeringly unequal benefits distribution makes for an unhealthy economy. We don't describe the economy of Mexico or Brazil to be healthy even when they are at high employment and growing GDP mostly because the burgeoning economy doesn't produce a similar ripple in their societies.

>Basket case economies are reflected in bond yields. The US pays little to borrow money because it is a safe haven.

Or because it uses its huge military might to make sure it is so.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#97

Post by dragontamer »

sillygeese wrote: post #46
code4tee wrote: post #7

Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…

> Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy In reality, it's the exact opposite of "quite healthy". Here's a good overview of what's up: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug15/bear8-15.html

If a 2008-style credit crunch takes out the likes of AGI in the next few weeks, causing rippling effects to spread throughout the economy in ways that no one understands... then we've reached a 2008 level crisis.

We don't have record numbers of people flocking to mobile homes as their subprime mortages jack up the rest of the economy.

Your article is crap because it ignores everything that was bad about 2008. Record layoffs, hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes and jobs. Major manufacturers (the _entirety_ of the "big three" car companies) almost went bankrupt.

Financial controls are arguably in a worse state than they were in 2008. But beyond that, the core economy is doing much better than back then. Furthermore, financial controls in 2007 prevented us from seeing any issues. The subprime mortgages getting wrapped up in CDOs and all that stuff was occurring in a non-regulated "shadow economy" manner.

Is there a shadow economy that is about to crash today? I don't think so. But that was the conditions of 2007/2008 financial crisis.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#98

Post by coldtea »

rorykoehler wrote: post #66
cryoshon wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages are shit for workers and thus consumption/demand are weak... this undermines the Chinese economy, which in turn undermines the US economy. Labor force participation is also garbage. Savings rates are a bit moot when tons of people are living paycheck to paycheck, also. It's not 2007-2008, but it's not quite 1998 either.

Capitalism at it's finest. The race to the bottom will eventually force someones (possibly everyones) hand. The mechanism that will drive change (either violent/non-violent) is just a matter of who blinks first.

>What are you going on about? If capitalism is a race to the bottom, we would have reached it a long time ago.

Only for a long time it had internal pressure (workers demands) and external pressure (the Cold war etc). Else we'd be still with child labor, 14 hours work day and such...

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#100

Post by cbr »

cryoshon wrote: post #68
ramblerman wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. This cognitive fallacy of "I knew" and "I was saying it long ago" etc... really irks me. Especially in something like stocks you are 100% right, put your money where your mouth is and spare us the story of your grand predictive prowesses.

I mean, if you want, you can hunt through my comments on this site and reddit/voat around 6 months ago and find me saying then that there would be a crash around this time. I'm not going to claim that I have any deep technical knowledge of the stock market, but the writing has been on the wall for quite a while.

I just skimmed your comments here between 118 and 250 days ago, and I don't see anything predicting a crash to come in September or any other time.
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