71–80 of 433 posts
I think it's a bad sign when they can write an article and get it out in under 25 minutes...but by the time they release the article, the market has gone up by half the amount it fell on opening. This market is severely flawed.
I think it's a bad sign when they can write an article and get it out in under 25 minutes...but by the time they release the article, the market has gone up by half the amount it fell on opening. This market is severely flawed.
I'm not rich enough to be an investor but I agree, some kind of cool down system should be required.
The global panic might have a good reason, this is probably the first time China goes through a true financial crisis. Their ability to deal with such situation is by and large unknown to anyone.
China (as we know it) can't suffering economic down turn. The Communists largely maintain power though the threat of Its us or chaos . Which before and during the communist rise China was pretty bad off. This is more or less the social contract we make your life better , you give up your rights . If it becomes clear the central government can't control the economy. We'll likely see a rise in anti-government protests.
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Interested to know which statistics you based this opinion of the US economy being "quite healthy" on. Anything deeper than top level unemployment rate?
Debt to income ratios, capitalization of companies, worker productivity, oil prices, savings rates, more healthy housing prices (in most areas), foreclosure rates, industrial orders, housing starts, .... This isn't 2007-08.
Debt to Income- yes everyone and their dog walker is not out there buying condos hoping to flip them in 3 years, so we are less leveraged than we were. Hard to tell how much of this is because people have more money coming in or are more responsible having just gotten burned 7 years ago.
Capitalization of Companies-- well we've had significant monetary inflation, have you accounted for that? Ok, now have you accounted for that using the real money supply?
Productiivty- this is the result of technology, should continue to increase.
Oil Prices- Oil prices are shockingly low, especially when you account for inflation. This is good as energy drives the economy... but it hasn't been this way long enough to see real economic effects that are lasting, yet.
Savings Rates-- well, compared to 2006 when everyone was leveraged to the hilt to buy just one more condo, sure they are better. But are they actually good?
Housing Prices-- "healthy" is also what they said in 2006. The monetary inflation that drove the housing bubble in 2000-2008 was only amped up after 2008. The spigot is open even wider now, and while we're clearly not in the mania we were in 2006, it's not obvious that these prices aren't also.... quite artificial.
I'd like a stat that was EBIDTA of the S&P 500, inflation adjusted against the real money supply, over the past 30 years. I think that would be a good indicator.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interested to know which statistics you based this opinion of the US economy being "quite healthy" on. Anything deeper than top level unemployment rate?
Corporate profits have been good, GDP has been rising at a decent rate, consumer confidence has been looking OK. Statistically, the economy has been looking alright, although the distribution of benefits continues to be unequal.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interested to know which statistics you based this opinion of the US economy being "quite healthy" on. Anything deeper than top level unemployment rate?
PS... I don't deny that a subset of the US economy/workforce got hit really hard in 2008 and never recovered. But when you look at the US economy as a whole things are doing quite well.
The median PE ratio of S&P 500 stocks at the moment is $14. That's certainly not "bubble" territory. The current market correction is surprising nobody, but I don't think many people consider this a bubble (at least for the US markets).
Now there are certainly subsectors within the US that could be in bubble territory and could get hit really hard... unrealistically valued tech stocks being one of them. But again, across the whole US economy things are alright.
It's hard for me to tell whether this is just a "correction" (massive deflation after exuberance) or an actual meltdown. I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all. "The New York Stock Exchange said it will halt trading for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drops 7 percent." [0] How is it fair that the marke…
"I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all." If you predicted it, then it should at least make you rich? :)
Besides, it wasn't just this commenter who predicted it. Many have before. In fact, even the laypress TV news like 60-Minutes have pointed out issues that will cause major growing pains to China. Run a Google search, click "Search Tools", and query the date range from the beginning of last year to end of Spring this year.
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Thank you. This cognitive fallacy of "I knew" and "I was saying it long ago" etc... really irks me. Especially in something like stocks you are 100% right, put your money where your mouth is and spare us the story of your grand predictive prowesses.
I predicted the 2008 crisis in 2001. (Well an article on http://mises.org made it clear it would happen.) This was before the housing bubble started to inflate, and was easy to expect due to the changes in the CRA and the artificially low interest rates. I profited from the bubble quite well, decided the top had been hit when things got really wonky and got out of the market in 2007. I was a year early, but I'm not c…
a) what would have happened had you stayed in for an extra month? An extra 6 months? The full year?
b) what would have happened if you hadn't gotten out at all?
The only reason I ask, is that most of the studies I've seen show that being able to predict macro level shifts in the market up to and including within 1 year time frames are largely less valuable than people would think. Especially for people doing long horizon investing.
Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy and people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time. Within tech, it will have some negative impact on the plans of some companies as it will be harder to get lofty valuations based on 'fluff'... during such times investors want to see hard facts and real results to back-up value--but that's a broader trend thats been slowly developing for some tim…
> Broadly speaking the US economy is quite healthy In reality, it's the exact opposite of "quite healthy". Here's a good overview of what's up: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug15/bear8-15.html
(And they won't even perceive the sarcasm).