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Show HN: Guess which government programs work

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Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#31

Post by tomjen3 »

jhundal wrote: post #26
NateLawson wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, this is really neat. It reminds me of the lesswrong.com community, where the goal is to figure out ways of offsetting cognitive biases. One thing I've always wanted to see is a mandatory A/B test built into any new legislation. That is, funding for a study after X years of the new law or program being in place would have to be part of the law. It could even including a threshold of the desired controlled effect…

Not sure how many folks are aware of this, but the ACA included funding for an 'Innovation Center' to run experiments on potential approaches to improve medical outcomes and cut costs: http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/01/14/37719262... I think that the A/B tests you propose would be great, though there will be plenty of ideologues still finding excuses not to accept the results. Also, hi Nate! You probab…

We shouldn't experiment with sick people, at least with their informed and voluntary consent.

Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#32

Post by asgard1024 »

tomjen3 wrote: post #30
asgard1024 wrote: post #12

This is great! One of the interesting things about social sciences (and engineering, although just like computer hacking, social engineering has unfortunately strong negative connotations) is that the real world is often counter-intuitive. In particular, people tend to believe in punishment a lot, while it commonly escalates the problem (I like the quip "emphasis on punishment is the sign of an obedience frame"). I a…

I hated this quiz, since it is propaganda to social science, which doesn't deserve to use the word science.

> which doesn't deserve to use the word science

Why not? You don't think the outcomes of the presented solutions were evaluated using scientific method? It would be nice if you could elaborate.

I understand your point, but if we were fair then software engineering shouldn't be called engineering either. Just like in social sciences, there is a lot of normative judgement and opinion compared to observation and experimentation. But I think both are getting better with time, and as we continue discourse, we employ empiricism more and more.

Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#33

Post by iopq »

It's really hard to tell "negative effect" and "no effect" apart, I got two of them switched.

Besides, I would consider both of those failed programs, not even sure if there's a point in distinguishing.

I got 7/10 right, only one successful program I got wrong.

Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#34

Post by asgard1024 »

Retric wrote: post #23
asgard1024 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One thing I've always wanted to see is a mandatory A/B test built into any new legislation This is what I find great about US and EU (I am from Czech Republic), that in a federal system, you can test the legislation in one state first, and then see the results and this lets the other states to perhaps adopt or avoid that approach. Unfortunately, strong moneyed interests break that model by lobbying strongly in Wash…

There are a lot of things which work better as federal programs vs state / local programs. Homeless populations spring to mind, if some city's treat there homeless population poorly they can 'export' the problem to another city / state. Where a state with overly generous benefits may see migration. Education is another with states that export there most educated population having little incentive to subsidize their h…

> Which likely has lead to the dismantling of state funded schools

I disagree this is a necessary outcome. It may as well happen that backward states will take notice and improve their higher education system in various ways.

But I think what you are saying is a fair point and I actually mentioned it. What I would add to my comment is the common solution to this is called "principle of subsidiarity" and it's used EU and Switzerland (which is another example of a federation that often tests different law variations in smaller scale first).

Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#35

Post by jhundal »

tomjen3 wrote: post #31
jhundal wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how many folks are aware of this, but the ACA included funding for an 'Innovation Center' to run experiments on potential approaches to improve medical outcomes and cut costs: http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/01/14/37719262... I think that the A/B tests you propose would be great, though there will be plenty of ideologues still finding excuses not to accept the results. Also, hi Nate! You probab…

We shouldn't experiment with sick people, at least with their informed and voluntary consent.

I certainly agree for trials for treatments for specific ailments. But insurers, hospital administrators, and others have always been making decisions that balance clinical outcomes and cost of care without patients knowing such a decision has been made. The experiments I refer to are similar to those choices and typically the funding will go testing choices that haven't been made because they are more costly in the short run.

Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#36

Post by alexandercrohde »

I was thinking about why this website triggered my skeptic alarms and came up with a few things.

1. The web interface makes it hard to go back. The first thing I want to do when I see a surprising answer is reread the question. I understand this is likely just bad engineering, but it makes the whole site feel less trustworthy.

2. Some questions get summarized poorly. For example, the mindfulness question asks "What effect does mindfulness based stress reduction have on self-reported mental health (rates of anxiety, stress, and depression)?" but then summarizes the choices to "reduction rates of mental health issues." You can't drop a word like self-reported from a question, after all physically disabled people self-report being happier after their disability (e.g. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21870935).

Also in the "Drug Substitution Programs" question the text indicates that the research is based off of cases where "Addicts were given heroin or substitutes such as methadone or buprenorphine, based on their needs," however the choices are formed "Positive effect - Prescribing heroin to addicts reduces crime rates," [note that it dropped the or substitutes]. This feels like going for shock value.

3. At the end the website is selling very hard about some newsletter. Apparently the website seems to be focused around a career guide? If you truly have no axe to grind then present high-quality information and I'll naturally explore the site more.

4. If your objective is really to help raise awareness about how often media publicity for social interventions doesn't reflect efficacy as measured in journals then I would think at the end you would propose a plan of action , such as "When hearing about a social program, you can use google scholar to tap into research findings..."

Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work

#40

Post by Asbostos »

ridgeguy wrote: post #18

I got way fewer of these right than I would have hoped. It's clear that I need to update my understanding of the questions presented. I owe a debt to those who put this together. Thanks very much.

If it helps, any time you choose "No effect", you're making a guess about how thorough the experiment was, not about the program itself. Every program will have some effect, but may be too small to have been detected. Similarly if the correct answer is "no effect" that just means the studies weren't accurate enough.
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