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Show HN: Guess which government programs work
11–20 of 60 posts
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#12This is great! One of the interesting things about social sciences (and engineering, although just like computer hacking, social engineering has unfortunately strong negative connotations) is that the real world is often counter-intuitive. In particular, people tend to believe in punishment a lot, while it commonly escalates the problem (I like the quip "emphasis on punishment is the sign of an obedience frame").
I am dismayed that I didn't do better than random chance, even though I like to read about social issues. I think this really shows the importance of empiricism in social sciences and engineering.
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#13I'm one of the creators of the quiz! Note that the projects were not chosen based on their results, and certainly not because the results are counterintuitive. Rather they are the ten best understood social programs we could find. You can read about the findings of our research into whether people can guess what works and what doesn't ahead of time: http://www.vox.com/2015/8/13/9148123/quiz-which-programs-wor...
Hey, this is really neat. It reminds me of the lesswrong.com community, where the goal is to figure out ways of offsetting cognitive biases. One thing I've always wanted to see is a mandatory A/B test built into any new legislation. That is, funding for a study after X years of the new law or program being in place would have to be part of the law. It could even including a threshold of the desired controlled effect…
> One thing I've always wanted to see is a mandatory A/B test built into any new legislation
This is what I find great about US and EU (I am from Czech Republic), that in a federal system, you can test the legislation in one state first, and then see the results and this lets the other states to perhaps adopt or avoid that approach.
Unfortunately, strong moneyed interests break that model by lobbying strongly in Washington and Brussels from the start, which I think is a bad trend, but I have no idea how to prevent it. The effect of having more cultural diversity is very hard to quantify economically. (There is also other side of the coin though, which is too much state competition can lead to polarization and war.)
Although sometimes there are things where you have to be careful about this approach - for example, if one state engages in lower taxes or pro-export policies, it may gain, but the same policy enacted by everybody will make everyone lose.
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#14I'm one of the creators of the quiz! Note that the projects were not chosen based on their results, and certainly not because the results are counterintuitive. Rather they are the ten best understood social programs we could find. You can read about the findings of our research into whether people can guess what works and what doesn't ahead of time: http://www.vox.com/2015/8/13/9148123/quiz-which-programs-wor...
Hey, this is really neat. It reminds me of the lesswrong.com community, where the goal is to figure out ways of offsetting cognitive biases. One thing I've always wanted to see is a mandatory A/B test built into any new legislation. That is, funding for a study after X years of the new law or program being in place would have to be part of the law. It could even including a threshold of the desired controlled effect…
What if robberies decreased by 20% for some unrelated reason and the legislation increased robberies by 10%? It would still look like a 10% decrease overall.
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#15Having conclusive evidence that a program doesn't work (or even is harmful) is significant. How effective is it for actually getting such programs stopped? Have any been?
Some have, but many persist for years (e.g. Scared Straight).
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#16I'm one of the creators of the quiz! Note that the projects were not chosen based on their results, and certainly not because the results are counterintuitive. Rather they are the ten best understood social programs we could find. You can read about the findings of our research into whether people can guess what works and what doesn't ahead of time: http://www.vox.com/2015/8/13/9148123/quiz-which-programs-wor...
Maybe you can link to that at the end of the quiz?
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#17Having conclusive evidence that a program doesn't work (or even is harmful) is significant. How effective is it for actually getting such programs stopped? Have any been?
Some have, but many persist for years (e.g. Scared Straight).
Scared straight is highly effective PR. Hood looking young people getting yelled at by scary men? Possibly crying? It's like schadenfreude for "civilized" society.
I don't understand how policy leaders can look at hard numbers and say, "fuck it, let's keep funding it."
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#18I got way fewer of these right than I would have hoped. It's clear that I need to update my understanding of the questions presented. I owe a debt to those who put this together. Thanks very much.
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#19This is great! One of the interesting things about social sciences (and engineering, although just like computer hacking, social engineering has unfortunately strong negative connotations) is that the real world is often counter-intuitive. In particular, people tend to believe in punishment a lot, while it commonly escalates the problem (I like the quip "emphasis on punishment is the sign of an obedience frame"). I a…
My cue was to vote against strategies that seemed built on a rewards and punishments foundation.
Re: Show HN: Guess which government programs work
#20I'm one of the creators of the quiz! Note that the projects were not chosen based on their results, and certainly not because the results are counterintuitive. Rather they are the ten best understood social programs we could find. You can read about the findings of our research into whether people can guess what works and what doesn't ahead of time: http://www.vox.com/2015/8/13/9148123/quiz-which-programs-wor...
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