How Cheap Can Solar Get? • Hacker News Board

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#91

Post by ssmoot » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 2:13 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #87

542458 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A one-time dirty process If only it was. Neither solar panels nor wind turbines last for a very long time, and the recycling processes don't exist on an efficient or clean scale for either yet.

Most panels have a rated life of 25 years and deteriorate slowly. That provides plenty of time for the recycling to be built. It's also comparable to the design lifetime of most types of non-renewable power plant.

I'm not qualified to answer either way.

But my grandfather worked at a coal fired plant. I've been to the strip mine. I've seen the trains that run continuously to truck it in.

From a layman's perspective it seems like an incredibly efficient process. Is there any chemical refinement going on at all? All that I saw looked mechanical (but I was very young).

I would guess that it would take many years of Solar before it broke even, in an environmental impact sense, with "cleaner" coal.

I think ultimately solar probably wins. But the initial cost seems like it must be orders of magnitude higher.

That said, I'd get solar if I could. Just not my highest home-improvement priority and I'd have to do something about the trees shading the south side of my roof. I like my trees. :-(

OTOH it would be nice if there were a high power (~2KV), affordable (<$2,000?), silent wind turbine solution to supplement our grid power.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#92

Post by breischl » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 2:16 PM UTC

ssmoot wrote: post #91

pjc50 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most panels have a rated life of 25 years and deteriorate slowly. That provides plenty of time for the recycling to be built. It's also comparable to the design lifetime of most types of non-renewable power plant.

I'm not qualified to answer either way. But my grandfather worked at a coal fired plant. I've been to the strip mine. I've seen the trains that run continuously to truck it in. From a layman's perspective it seems like an incredibly efficient process. Is there any chemical refinement going on at all? All that I saw looked mechanical (but I was very young). I would guess that it would take many years of Solar before i…

Deciduous trees on the south side of your house are great for energy efficiency. The shade reduces summer cooling costs, and then the leaves drop so you get solar heat in the winter. You should definitely think about it carefully before cutting them down to install solar panels.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#93

Post by ZeroGravitas » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 2:34 PM UTC

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

In many places you can pay extra to get your electricity from less carbon intensive generation sources without actually changing anything in your home, it may be worth looking into if you feel strongly about the issue.

In the UK Co-operative energy and Ecotricity are two that I'm aware of.

The other thing you can do is invest in a "community solar garden" project, which basically means you pay for the panels, and get the benefit of their generation, but they don't sit on your roof.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#94

Post by ZeroGravitas » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 2:39 PM UTC

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #78

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil f…

Not all PV panels, wind turbines or EV car designs use rare earths e.g. Tesla doesn't use any in their motors.

Also, lots of other things that aren't good for the environment use rare earths. Kind of weird and illogical that people only care about it when you're trying to do good.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#95

Post by pjc50 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 2:45 PM UTC

ssmoot wrote: post #91

pjc50 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most panels have a rated life of 25 years and deteriorate slowly. That provides plenty of time for the recycling to be built. It's also comparable to the design lifetime of most types of non-renewable power plant.

I'm not qualified to answer either way. But my grandfather worked at a coal fired plant. I've been to the strip mine. I've seen the trains that run continuously to truck it in. From a layman's perspective it seems like an incredibly efficient process. Is there any chemical refinement going on at all? All that I saw looked mechanical (but I was very young). I would guess that it would take many years of Solar before i…

There isn't chemical refinement in the same way as there is with oil. But there are mine tailings, ash, a surprising amount of radioactive thorium in the ash(1), sulphur (usually neutralised by trucking in limestone and out gypsum (2)), and of course vast quantities of carbon dioxide. "Clean" coal does not and cannot really address the CO2 even if it has been cleaned up in the other ways.

There are various estimates of the breakeven time, but even the most conservative ones put it under ten years.

You don't have to get your own solar if it's not convenient, that's what the grid is for.

1: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-r...

2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flue-gas_desulfurization

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#96

Post by ridgeguy » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 2:54 PM UTC

RamezNaam wrote: post #20

Jedd wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your post focuses on PVC's - what's the impact of / where does thermal solar fit in with these projections?

It's difficult to say. Solar thermal is not dropping in cost the way that solar PV is. For now, at low penetrations, solar PV is a far better bet. But solar thermal has the advantage of integrated storage. When solar overall is at some reasonably high penetration (say, 10-15%) storage will become important. At that point, it depends on the cost curve of storage technologies. If batteries or other energy storage techn…

Somewhat OT, but I'd be interested in your thoughts.

How serious are grid stability issues presented by solar PV (without storage) at high penetration rates (say > ~ 20%)? Important? Not? Thanks.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#97

Post by danmaz74 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 3:05 PM UTC

joshuapants wrote: post #48

RamezNaam wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things have happened in this area recently. 1. The grams of rare earths required per watt of solar have been dropping steadily. And Solar PV panels with no rare earths at all have been developed, though they are not yet common. 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found.

> 2. "Rare earths" are not so rare. Their prices have tumbled substantially as new mines have opened up and substitutes have been found. Yes, but mining them is an environmental disaster.

Which is nothing compared to the environmental disasters that a 3 or 4 celsius degrees increase in the World temperature will bring us.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#98

Post by nell » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 3:18 PM UTC

If solar is really that viable of an option, India should be investing a lot in this research. Power is a huge problem there. 24 hours of power supply is a luxury even in top cities. Small industries in rural parts operate around availability of power. There are a lot of wins here. And guess what, there is a lot of sunlight in major parts of the country throughout the year.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#99

Post by mikeash » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 3:19 PM UTC

meragrin wrote: post #70

mtgx wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The very least the governments can do is eliminate all subsidies to coal, oil and natural gas. They've had them for decades. I don't think it's healthy for a society to prop up an industry that long with subsidies, especially when it's one of the most profitable.

Could you list the subsidies you're against? All I ever find is general business items or for non-conventional fuels.

This isn't what people normally mean when they refer to subsidies, but the fact that fossil fuel users are allowed to contaminate everyone's air is effectively a massive subsidy for their operations. If the cost of the CO2 and pollution were paid by those producing it, this stuff would be way more expensive.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#100

Post by Retric » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 3:20 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #94

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil f…

Not all PV panels, wind turbines or EV car designs use rare earths e.g. Tesla doesn't use any in their motors. Also, lots of other things that aren't good for the environment use rare earths. Kind of weird and illogical that people only care about it when you're trying to do good.

People are terrible when dealing with large scale diffuse issues. Coal might be 30 times as bad as solar, but that's not zero and most of coal’s harm is spread over a large area.

In 2003, China had 4,143 coal related accidents that killed 6,434 people. But, installing rooftop solar also kills some people so it must be the great evil.

PS: A report by the World Bank in cooperation with the Chinese government found that about 750,000 people die prematurely in China each year from air pollution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China#Accidents_and_de...