How Cheap Can Solar Get? • Hacker News Board

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#71

Post by EwanToo » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 12:59 PM UTC

vilda wrote: post #41

RamezNaam wrote: post #7

Hi. I'm the author of this blog post. Happy to answer questions people have, as time allows, on Wednesday. Upcoming posts will look at the future of wind power, the future of energy storage, and what the missing pieces are. If you don't want to wait, you can read my thoughts on energy storage here: http://rameznaam.com/2015/04/14/energy-storage-about-to-get-...

The price of energy storage, an impact of energy storage technologies to environment, and costs of unpredictable energy distribution in the network does not seem to be calculated at all. They are not trivial. Germany claims one trillion EUR direct costs on network upgrades to cope with renewable energy. They do not take into account energy storage costs. Even now (at least in my country) 75% of energy costs are distr…

I believe almost 70% of that cost is in feed-in tarriff payments, not network upgrades, and is spread over the next 25 years?

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-Trillion-Euro_cost_of_G...

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#72

Post by watchdogtimer » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:00 PM UTC

mikekchar wrote: post #51

watchdogtimer wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you always use your MBP connected to a power outlet? If so, try running it until its battery is drained about 50%, then plug it into your inverter and see how much power it draws. My guess is it will draw about 50-60 W. I've been using a pedal-powered generator to power my computer, phone, tablet, and LED lights for the last 5 years and have tested several laptops and other devices using it. I've found that most l…

How much electricity can you generate? Just thinking off the top of my head, I'm a sucky cyclist so can only manage about 150W power output sustained, probably. I'm not sure I could handle more than an hour of stationary biking before I collapse in a puddle of sweat ;-) So that's about 150 WH... Is that about right (ballpark), or have I missed something? It would probably power my laptop for the day, anyway... It's s…

Most people seem to be able to comfortably produce 30 W over a sustained period of time.

If you're used to bicycling, dress appropriately, and work in a cool environment with a fan, you can produce 50-60 W.

Above that, it becomes difficult to maintain your concentration on your work while trying to pedal hard at the same time.

On most days, I maintain about 35-50 W, depending on the load.

So far this morning, I've ridden for 2 hrs, 5 minutes and produced 74 W-hr. The computer I'm using this morning is a Raspberry Pi2 with a 19" monitor. I'm also powering our DSL modem/router and a 12 V fan while recharging two tablets, four AA batteries, and my phone at the same time.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#73

Post by djb_hackernews » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:04 PM UTC

jeletonskelly wrote: post #57

redcalx wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you factored in the CO2 footprint of solar panels? Producing pure silicon is energy intensive, then there are various metals involved, so you've got mining, refinement, smelting, and bulk transport costs. The panels also have a limited lifetime so you need to think about the disposal or recycling cost in 15-20 years. Pretty sure I've missed a load of costs too.

Could it be said that in order to gain the technology and production methods of a cleaner, more efficient energy source we must expend energy from dirty and inferior sources first? It seems to be the case; we go after the low hanging fruit or the fruit that we know we can do something with. If that is the case, then can that be seen as a optimistic outlook for human kind in regards to climate change? That in order fo…

No. Eventually renewable energy becomes a lower hanging fruit.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#74

Post by watchdogtimer » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:05 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #67

watchdogtimer wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you always use your MBP connected to a power outlet? If so, try running it until its battery is drained about 50%, then plug it into your inverter and see how much power it draws. My guess is it will draw about 50-60 W. I've been using a pedal-powered generator to power my computer, phone, tablet, and LED lights for the last 5 years and have tested several laptops and other devices using it. I've found that most l…

I wonder how much inefficiency there is due to the inverter and the computer's wall transformer. Would it be better to run DC from the generator to power a dc-dc converter (which might have its own losses)?

Yes, it's definitely better to power everything using DC if possible. The best, reasonably-priced inverter I've found still draws 2 W whether it's powering anything or not. But it's difficult to get the right voltage and connector for every electronic device you might want to power.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#75

Post by Gravityloss » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:06 PM UTC

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

If you own the apartment, you can formally present to the building board that solar panels should be built on the roof. They would be owned by you, some group of people living there or the housing association.

If you're a tenant looking for an apartment you can keep asking it from landlords. Hopefully they start seeing that it's something that can be a distinct factor.

If you're a company doing real estate software, you can incorporate info about solar panels (and things like energy efficiency metrics) to the software.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#76

Post by Spooky23 » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:13 PM UTC

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

Being a good citizen now doesn't reduce my obligations in the future, so I'll be avoiding a solar retrofit as long as possible.

Personally, it would take something like a decade to recapture the capital costs associated with a solar installation. I don't have a 10-year commitment to my home, and don't have a capital gain tax liability to offset. So with solar I save a few bucks a month, and pick up alot of risk that my electric utility bears right now.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#77

Post by walshemj » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:13 PM UTC

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

Even in the UK with a massive government tax break our set of panels will take 8 or so years to break even - and we have an almost perfect south facing roof.

Makes sense if you own the property and have the spare cash to take the free money (8% yield tax free) - though the UK government is reducing the subsidy

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#78

Post by rm_-rf_slash » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:16 PM UTC

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

I used to think this way until I started dating a geologist. She brought down my optimism when she detailed the ways that the environment is ravaged to extract the materials necessary to create solar panels, wind turbines, and so on. Rare earths are great for handling high heat, but their resistance to reaction also means it takes a LOT of nasty chemicals to purify the ore. Not that we should keep on burning fossil fuels, but we shouldn't kid ourselves into thinking that renewables are a one-way street to environmental prosperity.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#79

Post by slxh » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:21 PM UTC

redcalx wrote: post #49

fpgaminer wrote: post #9

If I could install solar today I would, regardless of cost (apartment living prevents it). That may sound crazy, but I theorize that when you consider externalities the cost of grid electricity already far exceeds the cost of solar. It's going to cost humanity a whole lot of money to both survive and fix the damage we're dealing to the environment today. I'd rather pay more now for solar, than pay through the nose la…

Have you factored in the CO2 footprint of solar panels? Producing pure silicon is energy intensive, then there are various metals involved, so you've got mining, refinement, smelting, and bulk transport costs. The panels also have a limited lifetime so you need to think about the disposal or recycling cost in 15-20 years. Pretty sure I've missed a load of costs too.

You probably also should include the CO2 footprint of energy storage/batteries if you plan on going 100% solar.

Re: How Cheap Can Solar Get?

#80

Post by rm_-rf_slash » Wed, Aug 12, 2015, 1:31 PM UTC

slxh wrote: post #79

redcalx wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you factored in the CO2 footprint of solar panels? Producing pure silicon is energy intensive, then there are various metals involved, so you've got mining, refinement, smelting, and bulk transport costs. The panels also have a limited lifetime so you need to think about the disposal or recycling cost in 15-20 years. Pretty sure I've missed a load of costs too.

You probably also should include the CO2 footprint of energy storage/batteries if you plan on going 100% solar.

Wildly under-appreciated point. Many of those batteries die out quicker than you might think, and hold way less energy density than gasoline. Plus the environmental costs (much nastier stuff than CO2) of extracting rare earths and elements like lithium are huge. Since most of us on HN don't live in the global south or northwest China, we've never seen the breathtaking environmental devastation that brings us these "green" technologies.