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Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

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Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#101

Post by throw310822 »

pohl wrote: post #97
jml7c5 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the two interventions are unrelated. Every indication is that they thought Iran would be a quick war with minimal impact on oil markets. Even if they did think the Strait of Hormuz would be closed for a long time, controlling Venezuela's oil does not help — it takes much longer than two months for Venezuela to meaningfully increase oil production. (And oil is ~fungible, so it doesn't really matter if the US is in…

Not completely unrelated. Both were likely entered to distract from the same news story dogging him every 24hr cycle.

No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years.

Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and just the other day offered Saudi Arabia a civilian nuclear program if they do just this one favour to Israel (again the Abraham accords). His son in law Kushner is a personal friend of Netanyahu, like his father (who was nominated ambassador to France). Basically Trump has always been Netanyahu's tool.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#102

Post by tclancy »

cheschire wrote: post #90
anigbrowl wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are talking about this, because we're discussing a model of oil price vs availability which includes modeling of national oil reserves. I'm pointing out that the popularly understood amount of US reserve levels somewhat overestimates the available cushion, and provided two different and easily verifiable reasons for considering it to be smaller than the headline number. I also specified that I was oversimplifying…

What you also provided was conjecture based on… oh right you didn’t provide what it’s based on. Citation needed. What I meant with nobody talking about it was that outside of your post your bullet points aren’t being brought up in any reliable sources.

I get what you’re getting at, but do you honestly expect mainstream press to have a story on the technical details of oil production?

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#103

Post by tclancy »

neom wrote: post #48

Tangentially related but just watched this pretty interesting youtube mini-doc-thing about the recent moves China has been making regarding oil (and its bigger picture): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0

Clicked it and was greeted by a YouTube ad opening “How the fuck am I going to get a big dick from eating gelatin?” And then the woman in scrubs on the cowboy’s front porch explained it all to him.

It’s nice because it ensures I’m never going to get over-smart from watching YouTube. Plus I gotta go get some Jell-O.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#104

Post by eliotho »

cout wrote: post #89
eliotho wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What concrete predictions does your model make? Well, the model is less of a prediction and more of a stress testing tool. But under the hypothetical closure scenarios it shows the timing the oil reserves of distant countries exhaust, as well as the systemic effects on pricing (the France paradox). >What developments in pricing/other would indicate that your model is wrong or incomplete? The model has a stylized way…

Can you explain the France paradox?

France imports 0 oil directly through Hormuz, but when the Strait closes, all other countries start raising their safety stock which increases oil prices. This makes France's stockouts very expensive mostly due to price (not flows). Which is contagion without direct connection.

Think of the 2008 crisis where companies that had nothing to do with Credit Default Swaps were exposed to the crash due to network effects, potentially crashing the whole economy.

Then, the government intervened by bailing the banks out. Here, it's not really clear if there is even an effective intervention.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#105

Post by eliotho »

a3w wrote: post #87

Something seems to be wrong with the simulation: some countries run on reserves, and out of them, even with 100 % delivery. OP blames "Market elasticity parameters" for that, but they should offer a reasonable reset, or shouldn't they even oversteer towards filling up tanks, not clearing them out of no supply shock is seen?

[dead]

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#106

Post by neilellis »

kccqzy wrote: post #39
anigbrowl wrote: post #35

An interesting fact to consider is that the US stockpile (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is reported as the total of sour (high sulfur) and sweet (low sulfur) crude oil. The sweet stock makes up about 1/3 of the reserve and hardly varies at all. This is because US refineries are virtually all configured for sour crude: due to a mistaken belief in the 1990s that sweet crude was running out, the industry bet the farm…

> would be sometime around October/November, right in the middle of harvest season Right in the middle of election season.

You guys still having elections?

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#107

Post by eliotho »

molticrystal wrote: post #93

Maybe I missed it looking over the paper, or maybe they are implicit, but are you taking into account Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) , I believe it does about ~7m bpd and Habshan-Fujairah (Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline / ADCOP) about ~1.5m bpd? If not you might be underestimating things, though they do take a bit of a warmup to get into capacity, and can't match completely Hormuz's flow.

This pipeline predates the data but its oil is routed to Bab-el-Mandeb which is in the network. That being said, the numbers are more of a sensible baseline as the actual flows for many countries are unknown/sanctioned.

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#108

Post by eliotho »

mhh__ wrote: post #99

How much of the paper was written with AI?

the models, proofs and writing are mine (with some AI assistance for proofreading/formatting). AI was mostly used in the visualization and the rerunning of multiple scenarios of the numerical examples

Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data

#109

Post by eliotho »

larsien wrote: post #94

This is really interesting. Investment firms could incorporate this kind of simulation into their products.

Yes, and the network setting is flexible enough to allow smaller supply chains where nodes don't have price setting power
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