Nice that you allowed readers to customize the parameters! I personally thought the demand demand elasticity was too low and I was able to adjust it.
Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
41–50 of 136 posts
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#42An interesting fact to consider is that the US stockpile (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is reported as the total of sour (high sulfur) and sweet (low sulfur) crude oil. The sweet stock makes up about 1/3 of the reserve and hardly varies at all. This is because US refineries are virtually all configured for sour crude: due to a mistaken belief in the 1990s that sweet crude was running out, the industry bet the farm…
> virtually all configured for sour crude
They have retooled them in the past 40 years for the actually accessible inputs and desired distillates.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#43This is very interesting, and it shows why the Strait is urgently in need of a back up. I don't know what that would be or what would be feasible, but I've seen a lot of people talk about an underground pipe.
The saudis built a pipeline across their nation, and are exporting over 5million barrels (a large increase).
There is a great bit of coverage on this by "what's going on with shipping" here: https://youtu.be/r0EvQgLcjMw?t=172
It does not look like this data is part of the paper above.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#44I really do appreciate the effort but the data doesn’t reflect current conditions, and it’s falsified given it’s been virtually closed for months, certainly the same as 30% throughout that is the models default parameter, and we didn’t see ex. prices at $150/barrel 3 weeks in, or a host of other things it predicts. EDIT: I’m not saying it doesn’t matter the strait is closed - it does! - it’s just, what are we to do w…
The thing I've heard now in several places is that China is drawing down its massive secret stockpile (its _greatly_ reduced imports) which counterbalances a huge amount of this
I do generally agree that the theoretical model being _this_ misaligned with the reality in front of us feels a bit hard to use
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#45An interesting fact to consider is that the US stockpile (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is reported as the total of sour (high sulfur) and sweet (low sulfur) crude oil. The sweet stock makes up about 1/3 of the reserve and hardly varies at all. This is because US refineries are virtually all configured for sour crude: due to a mistaken belief in the 1990s that sweet crude was running out, the industry bet the farm…
Well that's also election time so the timing could not be better
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#46What concrete predictions does your model make? What developments in pricing/other would indicate that your model is wrong or incomplete? Nice website regardless, but I'm a bit skeptical that the dynamics of the global oil/energy market can be accurately predicted.
It's making crude predictions.
Ba dum bum... Tssss
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#47An interesting fact to consider is that the US stockpile (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is reported as the total of sour (high sulfur) and sweet (low sulfur) crude oil. The sweet stock makes up about 1/3 of the reserve and hardly varies at all. This is because US refineries are virtually all configured for sour crude: due to a mistaken belief in the 1990s that sweet crude was running out, the industry bet the farm…
Random internet person says something that nobody is talking about. Gemini says random internet person is exaggerating the severity on most points.
I guess I’ll wait and see if someone provides citations because this feels like a nothing burger.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#48Tangentially related but just watched this pretty interesting youtube mini-doc-thing about the recent moves China has been making regarding oil (and its bigger picture): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#49This is very interesting, and it shows why the Strait is urgently in need of a back up. I don't know what that would be or what would be feasible, but I've seen a lot of people talk about an underground pipe.
The saudis built a pipeline across their nation, and are exporting over 5million barrels (a large increase). There is a great bit of coverage on this by "what's going on with shipping" here: https://youtu.be/r0EvQgLcjMw?t=172 It does not look like this data is part of the paper above.
Exporting oil from the west side of Saudi Arabia works until some armed group like the Houthis with drones/missiles places a credible enough threat at another chokepoint that the ships won't go.
The choices are then to find a way to get the Houthis to chill out, or use enough military force to cut off the Iranian support for the houthis, or use military force to be confident you have destroyed the houthis' ship attacking capability.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#50Tangentially related but just watched this pretty interesting youtube mini-doc-thing about the recent moves China has been making regarding oil (and its bigger picture): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0
That video was masterfully done, and it’s shocking how quiet the mainstream and financial media has been about this topic. Everything is an AI chip story, and the looming oil crisis is completely under discussed because we have goldfish memories and can’t appreciate what a massive move China made.