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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#741

Post by jaybna »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #667
kneebonian wrote: post #597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I'd recommend checking out Peter Zeihan but he argues globalization isn't a natural economic result but rather globalization came about as the US agreed to allow other countries to participate in the first world market on the condition that they don't ally with the Soviets. Thus arguing globalization was only ever a security not economic policy and now that the security problem it is trying to solve is no longer t…

Zeihan is a quack who is blinded by nationalism. Capital will always chase cheap labor since shipping is cheap.

Zeihan is as critical of the United States as anyone. He’s just more critical of China and Russia. While capital may always chase cheap labor, his point is that it may not be able to in a fractured economic and security environment. It’s gonna be a hell of a decade.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#743

Post by pnt12 »

cleandreams wrote: post #546

- The flaws in AI become more evident even as models become more powerful. Basically AI algorithms learn patterns, not abstraction, limiting reasoning in fundamental ways. - Understanding why AI makes mistakes continues to be a black box. - AI, despite fears, will enliven culture through DALL-e etc . - We will be in a golden age of science and tech, not so much in fundamental discoveries but in successfully moving aw…

> Basically AI algorithms learn patterns, not abstraction

I've been playing around with chat GPT and trying to find useful cases.

I asked it to come up with python assignments, such that I could train for a certification, and I provided the syllabus, which includes the datetime and calendar module. Among the many syggestions, one stood out to me: creating a CLI which accepts a date and uses those modules to calculate the following full moon and print it.

Sounded cool, but there's a catch: those modules don't have any information about moon cycles!

I guess it matched some pattern regarding dates and moon cycles to produce this bad answer. It's a creative suggestion, but quite unfeasible!

We cannot use these models as experts who provided answers, but instead as creative, sometimes nonsense assistants, who can give their input but we can clearly filter the good ideas from the nonsense.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#744

Post by enos_feedler »

smugma wrote: post #464
sweezyjeezy wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are lower. I think this is a definite possibility too. I understand the reasons why US tech comp is higher than the rest of the world, but I don't see why it is _that_ much higher - I'm not sure it's sustainable in the new remote-work world.

Americans work 15-20% more hours, at least compared to Europeans ( In almost all fields, Americans make more money. The tech 2X is that historically hiring was done for the Bay Area, where cost of living is crazy, and also just basic supply and demand. If a few dozen engineers can build $100M-1B+ of value, it makes sense to pay them a lot (of investors’ money).

If i took a random sampling of a few dozen engineers in silicon valley they could build $0 of value most likely.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#746

Post by enos_feedler »

testplzignore wrote: post #280

Going with some completely random things this year so that I look like a time traveler. - Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November. - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. - JWST breaks. - Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury. - TCU wins the CFP. - Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near Memphis. - Coinbase collapses. Cryp…

> Amazon forks Chromium and releases their own browser. Requires Prime subscription

Allows click to buy anything you see on any page?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#747

Post by rvz »

abetusk wrote: post #542

Here's one that I think might actually have a chance of happening: - Stable diffusion but for music. That is, give a text prompt and get a 2-5 minute song out. So people can say things like "give me a song in the style of Siouxsie and the Banshee's first album, lamenting lost love" and get something reasonable back. It would also be nice to do a retrospective of what actually was predicted correctly from past predict…

> - Stable diffusion but for music. That is, give a text prompt and get a 2-5 minute song out.

It already exists and it is called Dance Diffusion. [0]

[0] https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/07/ai-music-generator-dance-d...

[1] https://www.harmonai.org/

[2] https://colab.research.google.com/github/Harmonai-org/sample...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#748

Post by rvz »

pfoof wrote: post #525

* there will be another hype for a technology on HN that doesn't introduce anything revolutionary but will have 20 posts on the front page per day (seen this with: SQLite, Postrgres, Rust, Zig; downvotes incoming) * Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) like there was exodus from Tumblr to Twitter, and this social network will change ToS to allow NSFW (my bets are Ins…

> * Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) like there was exodus from Tumblr to Twitter, and this social network will change ToS to allow NSFW (my bets are Instagram or TikTok)

Or Bluesky.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#749

Post by rvz »

pnt12 wrote: post #736

- ChatGPT will get more popular, even among non techies, until OpenAI asks for payment. - The AI hype will be revived, with lots of businesses trying to make money from it. Many will fail. Most likely to succeed is tech support, replacing half the jobs with AI, and human support serving as a backup. - No big news in autonomous driving: the best AI advancements last year don't seem to help this at all.

> - ChatGPT will get more popular, even among non techies, until OpenAI asks for payment.

This will certainly happen and most companies built on top of ChatGPT will not survive.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#750

Post by testplzignore »

smileysteve wrote: post #287
testplzignore wrote: post #280

Going with some completely random things this year so that I look like a time traveler. - Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November. - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. - JWST breaks. - Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury. - TCU wins the CFP. - Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near Memphis. - Coinbase collapses. Cryp…

Amazon has forked Chrome for "Silk Browser" on fire devices. Prime not required.

At Amazon, always two there are, a master and an apprentice.
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