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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#621

Post by ews »

kneebonian wrote: post #597
HDThoreaun wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than others. Large companies will continue to have enough political power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse globalization.

So I'd recommend checking out Peter Zeihan but he argues globalization isn't a natural economic result but rather globalization came about as the US agreed to allow other countries to participate in the first world market on the condition that they don't ally with the Soviets. Thus arguing globalization was only ever a security not economic policy and now that the security problem it is trying to solve is no longer t…

I came here to say the same and I really like your description of the core idea of his last book. After reading it (and with some caveats and small disagreements such as the cost of dealing with Climate Change) it is clear how the US has been the gluing force of globalization for around 70 years as securing mechanism against the Soviets.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#622

Post by lhl »

scrollaway wrote: post #604
lhl wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Nivenkos did a better job than most, but actually I think alkonaut did a bit better from a quick skim: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29747250 * Nivenkos predicted that Omicron would create natural immunity to COVID, but I think alkonaut's prediction was more nuanced/accurate: that organized responses end and there are new variants that we live with (although there has been a greater level of immune esc…

I like their prediction about NFTs too. Got damn close. I wouldn’t say they’re straight up toxic for everyone but… they’re close to it.

Well, game companies have backed away immensely due to backlash, and the PFP NFTs that were all the rage has cooled (but continues on...) but one only has to look at Reddit Collectibles (or the Trump Trading Cards) to see that NFTs aren't dead, just evolving/dropping the branding. Starbucks' Odyssey is another example of this new wave of utility NFTs.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#623

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #442
odiroot wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.

The inflation situation in the UK is getting out of hand. With Brexit and post Covid, companies are struggling for staff and the prices being charged for everything are eye watering. I’m not sure how that plays out, but hyperinflation can’t be good.

I've been expecting hyperinflation since the Brexit vote.

Not sure the UK is there yet, but at some point the situation will no longer be salvageable.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#624

Post by AlexCoventry »

infotogivenm wrote: post #593

Twitter will go bankrupt but will limp along ala Tumbler. Musk will pretend this was his plan all along, and dip into the fortune 200s. A replacement for journalist microblogging will emerge, I am not ruling out activitypub. Crypto (btc/eth) will continue its downtrend since the Matt Damon peak. Bitboy will end up under inditement. US housing market averages will bleed out slowly and be getting to point of stabilizat…

Absent some kind of disqualifying disaster, another Biden nomination seems likely at this point.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#625

Post by smsm42 »

nkko wrote: post #526
escapecharacter wrote: post #434

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

- Twitter will be then divided like a Roman empire and each CEO will reign different geo region.

Given how much local censorship is demanded and how different the rules are, may be not that far fetched.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#626

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

NoboruWataya wrote: post #567
btbuildem wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% lawyers have noticed. For example: they've been trying to automate discovery for a while now. I'm sure the new LLMs are making waves in those circles. But also: lawyering is good money, and they're adept at navigating the law. So breaking into that space with some sort of "tech disruption" has a high chance of getting you (metaphorically) dismembered.

Yes, my firm is investing loads into AI and other tech solutions to common legal problems. I first worked with eDiscovery software eight years ago. More recent trends including using machine learning to (partially) automate legal due diligence. Liability is the issue, as you say. If the software you use fails to flag an obvious issue that you consequently fail to flag to your client, you are in trouble, and the softw…

One of my predictions is that this will lead to an AI arms race. The front line won't be weird melty pictures and code that doesn't work but looks like it might, but increasingly expensive automated suits by legal AIs against other legal AIs.

This will - ironically - create the Singularity. And then we're all either in jail, bankrupt, or legally executed.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#627

Post by mrazomor »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #552
mrazomor wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MS has a limited amount of credit. It will expire eventually. If MS makes a bad move, it might kick off an avalanche. People leaving FAANG etc., might kick start new companies that help improving support, breaking the old relations, and building new ones. And ChatGPT won't take off, IMO. It's a nice piece of tech, but lacks what's needed for productionisation. I didn't even include it in 2023 prediction, as 2023 won'…

ChatGPT is immeasurably better than google assistant. Tons of people use that already, there’s no way they don’t upgrade it. Sure it won’t be the same, but it’ll follow the same idea of a massive transformer trained on the entire internet.

What's the ChatGPT traffic volume (requests per second), and what's Assistant's? Or any of the prominent search engines? What would be cost of running ChatGPT at that traffic volume & comparable (user friendly) latency or reliability?

How old is the data that ChatGPT is serving? How costly or feasible is to update it?

In short, the ChatGPT is frozen in all directions. Those are technical limitations.

ChatGPT is an amazing tech demo. It distrupted the Big Tech. That's great. But, we'll need to wait for the new generation. Not ChatGPT iterative improvement.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#628

Post by AlexCoventry »

orwin wrote: post #163
schappim wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re: - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. Has recent advances in the last month not made you more optimistic?

No, this does nothing for energy -generating reactors, but I agree that's interesting for future military nuclear tech.

What does the military application for the recent developments look like? More powerful bombs, somehow?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#629

Post by Semaphor »

I hope I'm just pessimistic, but

1. Nationalism and racism and fascism on the rise everywhere

2. A widening of the gap between poor and rich

3. More and more corruption

Obviously those are all based on recent (western) developments (though I'm not sure about 3. That might have been Germany local), but I hope, though not believe, that it won't stay like this.

I was never a huge fan of humanity, recent years seemed to try and tell me that i still was too much of one.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#630

Post by nine_k »

wokwokwok wrote: post #345
klntsky wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The market for stock photography and grunt level copy writing collapses entirely. You assume that with the new technology the total number of people needed in this sector will be reduced, but I think the industry will simply adjust, and the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people. This is a competitive market (your success is determined by the amount of money you…

> the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people That’s not what they predicted; the “we just get more content! People won’t lose their jobs…” argument aside, the market that is willing to spend money on content seems reasonably likely to drop off. People will continue to want content, yes. People will continue to buy content, yes. …however, it seems difficult to beli…

A stock photo agency can exist even if the cost of acquiring a particular picture is exactly zero.

Their paid service would be / always has been curation and selection. Customers rarely need a random picture (else they just use unsplash), they need a particular picture conveying a particular idea / mood / style.

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