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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#571

Post by iamthemonster »

soupfordummies wrote: post #487
iamthemonster wrote: post #43

1. There will be a renaming of "social media" as people note that there is nothing social about being served endless ads, ragebait and distracting videos with no actual social interaction happening. 2. The "social media" giants will invest more in public affairs to improve their image as public resistance grows. Expect lots of research papers getting funded that sow doubt and fear about banning children from social m…

I like this. Got any ideas for the rename? Something like “Mini TV Scroll”, IDK

"Manipulative Slot Machines (MSM)" maybe? "Zucktube", "Antisocial Media", "Ragescrolling"

I'm not sure any of those are quite perfect though. I fear that I'm sounding a bit like an old fart that calls it InstaFaceSnap.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#573

Post by oakejp12 »

Lordarminius wrote: post #157
Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know right , I think he might be too bullish on bitcoin for it to double , though I may be wrong but it just feels like there would be swings because I still believe that there is no use of bitcoin , Its just that its the one which started these coins and there could be better one for use cases , maybe like IDK monero for real anonymous transactions , but even then these are more of a sidekick thing which I don't t…

>I like index funds so much , that everything else feels a time / effort waste even though I am aspiring to be a programmer , maybe that's partially why I don't see much reason in crypto. Crypto is the future of money and finance. If you are aspiring to become a programmer you should internalize this and get in.

No one in the financial industry seriously considers crypto except for the fact that they can use it to siphon money from the unfortunately disillusioned and the idiotic.

As a financier and a programmer, I'm happy people keep pouring money into it because I can win more games. As a human, it's really sad to witness.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#574

Post by rcarr »

abetusk wrote: post #108

* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, e…

"The Monoverse" might meet the AI video criteria: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RF5iwsUef9o&list=PL14oiCokyI...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#575

Post by gigatree »

OccamsMirror wrote: post #98
gigatree wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Look everyone, a brave antivaxer here to spread misinformation.

It’s completely factual to say that newborns are being injected with aluminum & pharmaceutical companies are legally invulnerable to what happens as a result of that. But I’m sure this comment will be flagged regardless because this is a community of free thinkers.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#576

Post by gigatree »

reshlo wrote: post #269
diptera911 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a difference between injected aluminium/formaldehyde and ingested aluminium/formaldehyde?

Not in a way that matters here. As alluded to by the source in my last comment, formaldehyde is produced in a variety of ways inside the human body, including literally inside our cells, in the mitochondria. It is also used as an input in other biological processes. These processes collectively result in formaldehyde being continually present in the bloodstream in quantities more than a thousand times higher than the…

You have an argument for formaldehyde, but “over your life more aluminum ends up in your stomach than you get injected into your bloodstream as a newborn” is pretty weak logic

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#577

Post by shadowerm »

uncomplexity_ wrote: post #132
andy_ppp wrote: post #7

Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.

haha this is gonna be an interesting one for sure. it's crazy how us humans yearn for magic pills for the highs and the lows just to get ourselves in a healthy baseline and as bryan johnson's experiments look like, it all comes down to our consistency in eating healthy, exercising regularly, and resting enough - those three alone will net you better health than most people - and it's hard to get into habit of doing t…

Or read Sapolsky on how this line of though is simply stupid and ignorant.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#578

Post by shadowerm »

ptero wrote: post #138
stackghost wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not American but would like to read more about this "debt storm", since your politics move world markets. Can you provide some jumping-off points for the financially-literate?

"Broken Money" by Lyn Alden is a good engineering background. Then, for example, read one of many macro articles on fiscal dominance. You do not have to read Lyn first, but without reading it on modern financial systems I personally would not understand most technical points in the current macro discussions.

Even then though, there is a giant global debit maturity wall from covid that needs refinancing at much higher interest rates that starts coming due in 2026 and 2027.

That is much sooner than fiscal dominance in the US. I suspect we can go to 100 trillion in debt at least without fiscal dominance. I suspect everyone will understand what fiscal dominance is in the 2030s though.

This liquidity problem from debt refinancing is much nearer.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#579

Post by Leptonmaniac »

snapplebobapple wrote: post #545
bobro wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crazy how wrong people were in the top 2024 comments.

I was eeading an article on this a while ago tgat i sadly cant find but you should expect these threads to be wildly incorrect because people can read everyone elses predictiobs and be swayed by them. The wisdom of the crowd only appears to work when nobody gets to see otger results first and then the median position is wgat is usually most accurate.

I think I recently (few days ago, that is in the last few days of 2024) saw a Vsauce video/short about this regarding a trial trying to use the wisdom of the crowd to get an accurate number for the amount of jelly beans in a large jar. The trial was similarly skewed by "open" predictions, concretely people being allowed to give their predictions while in the presence of their group (friends/family/etc). Unfortunately I cannot seem to find it, but your comment reminded me of that.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#580

Post by shadowerm »

klysm wrote: post #279
kingnothing wrote: post #59

US enters recession in Q1 2025. There's no "soft landing". The correlation between federal interest rate cuts and recessions perfectly predicts this.

Suppose the correlation was this simple and reliable, why don’t the markets already reflect it?

Not saying I agree with the parent comment but the reason would be because the concept of the efficient market is overly simplistic nonsense?

It is really a great example of how much human knowledge is really just the repeating of a standardized, agreed upon orthodoxy that has little to do with reality. In the 21st century the "expert" in various forms reinforces the orthodoxy far beyond the 20th century.

Economics can't even catch up to the 1980s and dynamic systems.

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