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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#461

Post by gwbas1c »

Ok, I'll bite. Some of these are a little far-fetched:

A nuclear bomb is exploded in combat.

The bitcoin/cryptocurrency bubble finally bursts (But if I'm wrong, I think it'll happen by 2030)

While self-driving cars aren't commonplace, geofenced robotaxis will start to become a lot more common, shifting public attitude towards self-driving cars. Excitement will start to grow around "when does my city get robotaxis?" (I don't think we'll get to the "sleep on a road trip" car until the 2030s, nor do I think we'll get "sleep while driving in a blizzard" until the 2040s.)

The US hits its inflection point with electric cars as the NCAS standardization makes things easier, and Elon Musk gets non-Tesla stations to work by having the government drop incentives for OCPP. (If you ever show up to a charging station and it doesn't work, or is wonky, it's because of OCPP. (Superchargers do not use OCPP.) I should write a blog entry some time.)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#463

Post by doku »

feznyng wrote: post #393
dartos wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could just as well be a typo. I’ve never heard anyone call diagnosing “sniffing”

It’s an idiom, like the detective sniffed out some clues.

lol, I do mean a sniff with a nose. The technology I'm referring to can work by taking air sample. This technology exist, the prediction is that cheap version will be available. My assumption is robots will want a digital nose, for example nanny bots will want to smell smoke and react. An example I read for this technology is that grocery store robot will want to detect spoiled food. It will be mass produced and gets cheaper. But we don't have a robot industry yet, so my confidence level on this prediction is low. The AI part of this is just data analysis of spectral lines.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#464

Post by Riseed »

dartos wrote: post #383
0-_-0 wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sniffs out, meaning diagnoses

Could just as well be a typo. I’ve never heard anyone call diagnosing “sniffing”

Disease can change body odor, and dogs have been trained to "sniff out disease" [0][1] (i.e. detect via smell) for years. Various researchers have been working on robot noses that would be able to do the same.[2] Presumably a widespread and/or less expensive version of this "robot nose" is what doku means by "AI nose sniffs out many common diseases".

[0] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01629-8

[1] https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/how-do-dogs-sn...

[2] https://bigthink.com/the-future/robotic-nose-smartphone-dete...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#465

Post by doku »

dartos wrote: post #347
doku wrote: post #271

90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…

Really bullish on AI, huh? Designing an engine? “[snuffs] out common diseases”? Solving SEO? Idk cotton, let’s see how this plays out.

"Solving" is a bad choice of word. SEO does not have a solved state.

Digital design of engines can already happen now. AI chip design is already a thing, I think they help lay out more efficient trace lines. Since digital design and simulation can all happen digially. The whole cycle is digital. A system like Claude's computer use can take control and produce 100s or thousands of small modification of existing design to be simulated and if it has testable performance critiera. I think it can be done now. Maybe some finetuning the model for specific UI control.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#466

Post by HDThoreaun »

paul7986 wrote: post #168
bmcahren wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll bandwagon on chat.com getting 10% or higher marketshare. Look back at Google search's 800 number; https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/12/google-kills-sms-search/ (the only article I could find). We're at that stage of chat.com going mainstream. Already chat.com is a better experience for finding local shops and restaurants. ChatGPT voice mode was surgically amazing while driving. I had a personal assistant refining c…

I think Open AI will release a GPT phone and the UX is built around your phone being your personal AI assistant. When you pick it up it's like you are always on a Facetime call with your AI personal assistant. You can skin your AI personal assistant how they look .. to look like a celebrity to a deceased friend or relative whose always there to help & guide you through your day (get things done for you, your knowlegd…

I dont think openAI has the staffing required to release a phone anytime soon. As far as I know there arent any hardware people there.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#467

Post by HDThoreaun »

Hilift wrote: post #416
IAmGraydon wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth. And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?

> And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things? Gold is obviously more common in some cultures, and could be used for trade if paper money swings wildly. For example, a kilo of gold (32.15 troy ounces/$86k) is not an uncommon incentive gift from real estate developers in China when purchasing properties, to offset variations in costs and pricing. However, in the US, my obse…

China's lack of highly liquid equity markets makes it an extremely potent breeding ground for bubbles. Combined with their cultural propensity to save instead of consuming and its easy to see how their real estate bubble happened. Chinese government is going to have to pay very close attention to any speculation possibilities if they dont start selling equity in state owned companies or at least make it much easier and safer to invest in foreign equities.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#468

Post by ac29 »

criddell wrote: post #366
drcwpl wrote: post #354

IQ will continue to decline driven by over-reliance on LLM output and the majority watching video shorts. Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population

It’s interesting to me that you talk about watching podcasts. To me, they are still mostly a feed of audio files with some outlier video podcasts gathering big audiences. Am I out of date on that? Is video the primary format for podcasts now? > 1% of the population Human population. I bet they are used for training a significant number of big AIs.

> Am I out of date on that? Is video the primary format for podcasts now?

No, but many podcasts are recorded and released on video as well. Its not that much extra work if you are already set up to record audio and it gives you another monetizable product from the same content.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#469

Post by pragmatic »

Trump starts a trade war that impacts a small but vital part of the economy that is already struggling like agriculture. The MAGA hat crowd still supports him while scratching their heads about what they could possibly do besides wait for more govt checks (see 2017)

Elon and Trump break up in Taylor Swift style. Messy and dramatic.

Epic coin hacks.

Americans get even madder at their healthcare. Republicans respond with some Hillsdale style “market reforms” but mostly blame Obama.

AI hype peaks. Massive losses are taken as 75% off the players in the space implode. (Winners are really going to win, perplexity, etc)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#470

Post by vyasaveda »

Despite all the technical advancements, hedge funds are holding cash, or liquid. China is old, Europe has stagnated economy, america is expensive and tough to compete on, Russia is in war, Capitalist fear middle east, Korean peninsula is in chaos, japan is stagnated, Australia lacks technical advancements, low popular for manufacturing. Short term stocks in holding in India and Asia, a bit in Nordic population, and America. Manufacturing in Mexico and changed Argentina.
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