361–370 of 620 posts
a) Quantum Computing b) Energy (storage/generation) c) BioTech
We will see an exciting application of Real Time Linux.
Cease-fire in UA. First negotiations about drawing new borders between UA and RU.
US enters recession in Q1 2025. There's no "soft landing". The correlation between federal interest rate cuts and recessions perfectly predicts this.
Suppose the correlation was this simple and reliable, why don’t the markets already reflect it?
Also, most Americans’ tax advantaged retirement accounts (via 401Ks) are locked in with consistent contributions to diversified index funds or ETFs containing primarily large market cap companies that make up a majority of the stock market.
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There's a second 2024 thread here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465 Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely. Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.
It reflects the mood, which tells me all I need to know about things like short term stock changes. In reality nobody can predict the future. My predictions have historically also been way off, but what is surprising to me is that people don't reflect on their misses. For the most part I've given up in predicting anything, at best I will look at trends and see if there's something there or not. But with that said I w…
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>> Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happen…
Only 4 data points. There are meaningful differences this time around: Trump support of Bitcoin lobby and mainstream ETFs.
-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…
> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…
The war will stop on the current lines, and Russia will use the 4 years of respite to re-arm and take the rest of Ukraine in 2028.
IQ will continue to decline driven by over-reliance on LLM output and the majority watching video shorts. Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population
Am I out of date on that? Is video the primary format for podcasts now?
> 1% of the population
Human population. I bet they are used for training a significant number of big AIs.
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> If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. The bigger harm Russia is putting onto itself is its inability to take part in the AI race. They've left the battle over to the US and China, while the EU at least isn't idling. If they wouldn't have started the war and have at least pretended to be good friends, they could have used their vast…
We’re discussing a literal war, with all the death and destruction that entails, and your claim is “the bigger harm” is not wasting more money on a power hungry subpar parrot that is accelerating the dissemination of disinformation and making it harder to fight climate change with its energy consumption. We’re all doomed. Anyone who believes AI will kill us is delusional, humans are greedy and stupid enough that we’l…
You may yet live to be bitten in the gluteus maximus by said parrot.
For those curious how well you did last years - I built a table with evaluated predictions some time ago: https://hn-predictions.eamag.me/
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> If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. The bigger harm Russia is putting onto itself is its inability to take part in the AI race. They've left the battle over to the US and China, while the EU at least isn't idling. If they wouldn't have started the war and have at least pretended to be good friends, they could have used their vast…
We’re discussing a literal war, with all the death and destruction that entails, and your claim is “the bigger harm” is not wasting more money on a power hungry subpar parrot that is accelerating the dissemination of disinformation and making it harder to fight climate change with its energy consumption. We’re all doomed. Anyone who believes AI will kill us is delusional, humans are greedy and stupid enough that we’l…
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The question becomes one of politics: how much does each EU member care? I'm reminded about the old joke about the difference between ham and eggs being that the chicken is involved but the pig is committed. Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are "committed" in that they regard the risk of a Russian invasion as real, and have seen occasional incursions by Russian flights and even missiles. If it comes to a fight…
The politics of Ukraine war is extremely complicate. After WW2 Ukraine got territories from Hungary (and they are still very mad because of this), Slovakia, Poland and Romania. Then Ukraine had very aggressive policies against the people from these territories and they mostly failed, these minorities speak Russian as the second language, not Ukrainian. This is not something that it is easily forgotten, people in the…
Let's call it for what it really was: Ukrainians commited genocide against Poles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia...