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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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211–220 of 620 posts

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you mention geopolitics and a potential WW3 without mentioning the Middle East and Israel?

Gaza was heartbreaking, but the story was amplified in the US to suppress progressive turnout. I think I saw the same fingerprints on both sides. Either way, the Battle of Oil is mostly over. The ME is increasingly irrelevant. Arab leaders predicted this long ago [1]. [1] https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/978019...

Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#213
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaza was heartbreaking, but the story was amplified in the US to suppress progressive turnout. I think I saw the same fingerprints on both sides. Either way, the Battle of Oil is mostly over. The ME is increasingly irrelevant. Arab leaders predicted this long ago [1]. [1] https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/978019...

Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html . You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum.…

OK, will do. I was just imitating others that seem to be doing the same.

Is there such a thing as an acceptable number of accounts per year? (Not fond of the karma system.)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#215

* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and…

1. I don't know

2. I think this is probably right-ish. From what I hear LLMs are nearing what they do and I have never found any interesting use other than just laughing at them (which I could do with markov chains). AI-generated images are hideous and I have no opinion on AI-generated music as I just choose not to expose myself to it

3. Again, don't know

4. God I hope so. That would be such a funny trend. Plan9 comeback??????? #define nil (void*)0 in common parlance???

5. I feel like this is exclusively a novelty but what do I know

6. No it will not???

7. This will probably happen, but it won't be many games. It will not be a new class of games. AI--big shock--isn't fun. Mario but the levels are incomprehensible. BALATRO but I CONVINCE the GAME to give me INFINITE MULTIPLIER? (Part 3). The Beginners Guide but no one cared enough to tell a story. AI so far has been a hindrance where high quality work is concerned. Why will that change? The paint bucket tool has been slowly improved over time, but it was helpful when it first came out.

How many people do you know that have played the AI-generated Minecraft thing more than once or twice? It's interesting but utterly bland and bizarre. You're constantly having to tell the program over and over again what it means to be a person when you're in a world which doesn't even know what bird is in the sky. It gets infuriating.

The idea comes back again and again, though. "What if we made a game with infinite content so it could appeal to everyone? And then what if we added multiplayer?" I've thought it, you've thought it--everyone has. The important part is realizing that you're wrong. If everyone's had this thought, why don't we have this game? Well, we do.

Dwarf Fortress is perhaps the best example of a reality simulator standing at simulating a whopping 42% of everything ever. But if you asked someone to describe Dwarf Fortress they wouldn't just say "it's a pretty good reality simulator"--well, they might. Assume here you asked them to give a /good/ description--they would tell you it's a tough, slow game about minion dwarves going around and doing your bidding in order to build a civilization which will eventually fall. And they'd tell you that it's fun because of its deep interactions. But now we've lost the plot. It's not a game for everyone anymore, because now it's only for people who like slow games with deep interactions. And it's not a game where you can do anything because you can only do so much as your dwarves can do. But Dwarf Fortress is a fun game. And the fun of it comes from its rules. And rules are what AI is famously bad at.

Minecraft is another famous game and the same thing applies to it. "You can only interact with what your player can see," "one block at a time," and "everything is a full block" are all rules which bend it away from that "ideal" game, but they're all the things that make Minecraft fun. They're all the rules.

Games aren't fun when you can say "well I have better armor" and get out of a tricky situation. Games are REALLY FUN when you can say "wait, I have a bag of holding, don't I?" and then look around as everyone starts smirking at the implication.

That's what AI is bad at. There will not be a new class of AI games.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.

>Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth. And you believe that in an economic crisis, people are going to want to buy these things?

I have a family member who holds onto gold and silver currency because he believes the USD is going to collapse someday. I've raised the argument you made with him, and he admits that such currency won't be useful in the midst of the crisis. He believes it'll be useful in the rebuilding period afterwards, though. I guess time will tell.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#219

Nation adopts AI generated national anthem. Self-driving truck cross country without human approval. Extreme heat warps bridges in mid-west. North Korea claims successful moon landing. 'Self-aware' AI chatbot sues it's creator. AI incorrectly labels school children as criminals.

> AI incorrectly labels school children as criminals.

I thought this would have already happened

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#220

A significant portion of the US population will lose nearly everything. Their investments will collapse, their benefits will be stripped away, and they will fall victim to countless scams, or be outright robbed. Much of this will happen through official channels, as restrictions and oversight on corporations and government organizations are reduced or eliminated entirely.

I agree with the rest, but not necessarily investments collapsing. It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business, gutting consumer and environmental protections. Assuming tarrifs happen, there will be price hikes. And if there are general price hikes it's easy (and sometimes necessary) to hike your own prices even if you're not directly affected. This will improve profits (at least in t…

> It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business

Friendly to some businesses.

Stocks aren't the only investments people make. Their own small businesses, homes and other property, crypto, etc.

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