Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

1–10 of 29 posts

If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#1

Post by daragao »

So there has been some noise around if there is a tech bubble or not. I am not arguing if there is one or not, nor interested in that discussion anymore.

If there is a tech bubble, how can I protect myself? That is the question. I am developer who has worked mostly in small businesses and startups, with a master in computer engineering. I am not the best developer there is, but not a terrible one either. Should I move to a larger company? Start my own company away from investment? Just save money and hope for the best?

Thanks!

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#2

Post by mooreds »

Save money. 6 months expenses is a good rule of thumb.

Network (which really means just keep in touch with folks you have worked with or met).

At your current employment situation, keep your ear to the ground. You don't need to move to a big company (they have layoffs too) but you want to be aware of what is happening.

Ask your boss questions about the business, and do your own research too. If your company is "default dead" then ask how you can help make it "default alive".

Cut your unneeded expenses.

Start a company if you have the drive to so, don't worry about the macroeconomic climate.

Source: reading, living through the 2000 and 2008 recessions as a developer.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#3

Post by daragao »

mooreds wrote: post #2

Save money. 6 months expenses is a good rule of thumb. Network (which really means just keep in touch with folks you have worked with or met). At your current employment situation, keep your ear to the ground. You don't need to move to a big company (they have layoffs too) but you want to be aware of what is happening. Ask your boss questions about the business, and do your own research too. If your company is "defau…

Surviving through the 2000 one must have been a hard one, although it picked up fast ;) What were the signs? What could you see at the time that made sense to you that was something wrong? Or at the time you never felt anything was wrong, business was just really good. After the disaster happens everyone has good theories about the causes, but before no one really remembers to look to obvious signs which transcend how the economics are going, like why there is so much people getting so much money although their knowledge doesn't support their business. How can a tech business be built by someone that is non tech (or even averse to it), to make a business do you only need a good talk and gut, or do you actually need to know about the business.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#4

Post by Avalaxy »

Probably by getting out of the silicon valley bubble. Work for 'normal' companies that are actually trying to make the world better instead of building the millionth useless social media platform. Choose companies that aren't overvalued 100 times their actual worth (so don't work for Uber, Snapchat or any of those companies with valuations in the higher Billions range, without actually making any substantial profit).

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#5

Post by fratlas »

Avalaxy wrote: post #4

Probably by getting out of the silicon valley bubble. Work for 'normal' companies that are actually trying to make the world better instead of building the millionth useless social media platform. Choose companies that aren't overvalued 100 times their actual worth (so don't work for Uber, Snapchat or any of those companies with valuations in the higher Billions range, without actually making any substantial profit).

Well, Uber in particular has a huge profit. But other than that, I agree.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#6

Post by jjoe »

It's almost always too late to protect yourself when the bubble has popped. So prepare for the next pop. The only way to protect yourself is to build your own business. But not just any kind of business; a business that can absorb the chocks of cyclical troughs in an economy.

What do people always need?

* Drinking water

* Food

* Health

* Shelter

Pick one or two.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#7

Post by tariqali34 »

fratlas wrote: post #5
Avalaxy wrote: post #4

Probably by getting out of the silicon valley bubble. Work for 'normal' companies that are actually trying to make the world better instead of building the millionth useless social media platform. Choose companies that aren't overvalued 100 times their actual worth (so don't work for Uber, Snapchat or any of those companies with valuations in the higher Billions range, without actually making any substantial profit).

Well, Uber in particular has a huge profit. But other than that, I agree.

Uber has huge revenue. They have failed to generate a single cent of profit though.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#8

Post by ulfw »

fratlas wrote: post #5
Avalaxy wrote: post #4

Probably by getting out of the silicon valley bubble. Work for 'normal' companies that are actually trying to make the world better instead of building the millionth useless social media platform. Choose companies that aren't overvalued 100 times their actual worth (so don't work for Uber, Snapchat or any of those companies with valuations in the higher Billions range, without actually making any substantial profit).

Well, Uber in particular has a huge profit. But other than that, I agree.

Where is that huge "profit" exactly?

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#9

Post by csixty4 »

daragao wrote: post #3
mooreds wrote: post #2

Save money. 6 months expenses is a good rule of thumb. Network (which really means just keep in touch with folks you have worked with or met). At your current employment situation, keep your ear to the ground. You don't need to move to a big company (they have layoffs too) but you want to be aware of what is happening. Ask your boss questions about the business, and do your own research too. If your company is "defau…

Surviving through the 2000 one must have been a hard one, although it picked up fast ;) What were the signs? What could you see at the time that made sense to you that was something wrong? Or at the time you never felt anything was wrong, business was just really good. After the disaster happens everyone has good theories about the causes, but before no one really remembers to look to obvious signs which transcend ho…

Not the OP, but the big one for me was everybody's rush to IPO. You weren't a real tech company if you weren't publicly traded and offering your employees stock options. In 2000, I was working for a twenty year old, privately owned, profitable software company at the top of a growing vertical that decided they needed to rebrand as a dot-com, buy their next biggest competitor, and IPO. They got as far as the first two before the bubble burst completely.

Seeing infrastructure brands like Cisco, Java, and RedHat all over the mainstream financial press made me worry the tech would suffer for the sake of marketing. Indeed, I saw companies investing in tech from those brands before their use cases justified it, because they could show investors their name brand hardware in the data center and cash in on that brand recognition. But the cost doesn't matter because you'll get rich when you IPO next year, right?

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#10

Post by mooreds »

daragao wrote: post #3
mooreds wrote: post #2

Save money. 6 months expenses is a good rule of thumb. Network (which really means just keep in touch with folks you have worked with or met). At your current employment situation, keep your ear to the ground. You don't need to move to a big company (they have layoffs too) but you want to be aware of what is happening. Ask your boss questions about the business, and do your own research too. If your company is "defau…

Surviving through the 2000 one must have been a hard one, although it picked up fast ;) What were the signs? What could you see at the time that made sense to you that was something wrong? Or at the time you never felt anything was wrong, business was just really good. After the disaster happens everyone has good theories about the causes, but before no one really remembers to look to obvious signs which transcend ho…

Ha, hindsight is 20/20, as they say. I guess I would say that the voracious hiring, the dependency on other startups for revenue, the grand plans(an office in Londow and one in Singapore!), the hiring of high level executives that didn't seem to add value, the grand renovation (we had a custom built climbing wall in our building... was just got show), and later, the hamhandedness of the layoffs were all signs.

Of course it was a different world back then because the hardware and software were a much larger portion of spend for internet companies. Signs may be different now.

That said, "History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:History

Post reply on HN