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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#981

Post by colesantiago »

mpalmer wrote: post #949
colesantiago wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you send in an article that was completely irrelevant that has nothing to do with prediction markets? What you're showing me is a death threat, which has existed for time in humans. Betting markets of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on particular betting market prediction markets altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.

What you're showing me is a [war crime], which has existed for time in humans. [Wars] of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on [particular tactics in war] altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse. Do you see the problem with your logic?

All you're showing are death threats that humans have made. This has happened for all of time, prediction markets or not.

There is a difference.

Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says:

"Date on which this journalist will die"?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#982

Post by colesantiago »

tasuki wrote: post #61
colesantiago wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is 1000%+ far worse to be fair. Cryptocurrency (although I hate it) you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. With AI, you're participating whether you like it or not. Layoffs, Job displacement, etc. There is no opt out here. Once you're replaced with AI, that is it. At least with cryptocurrency and prediction markets you can make money but i…

> Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. What if there's a prediction market on your life? Would you say you're still "not participating, so no harm done" ?

Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says:

"Date on which this journalist will die"?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#983

Post by colesantiago »

mpalmer wrote: post #42
colesantiago wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you think banning it would 100% work? and where did I say I liked it?

I'm not responding to your gish gallop BS. Why do you (obviously) think betting markets are good?

Are you able to point to where I explicitly said I liked it rather than putting words in my mouth to fit your narrative?

Maybe you should calm down re-read the thread before you turn red hot with anger.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#984

Post by tasuki »

colesantiago wrote: post #982
tasuki wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. What if there's a prediction market on your life? Would you say you're still "not participating, so no harm done" ?

Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says: "Date on which this journalist will die"?

I'm not saying there is. I'm saying prediction markets aren't opt-in.

Similar with war in general: the moment the decision makers can earn $$$ by betting on something unlikely and then doing it, we have a problem...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#985

Post by mpalmer »

colesantiago wrote: post #981
mpalmer wrote: post #949

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're showing me is a [war crime], which has existed for time in humans. [Wars] of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on [particular tactics in war] altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse. Do you see the problem with your logic?

All you're showing are death threats that humans have made. This has happened for all of time, prediction markets or not. There is a difference. Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says: "Date on which this journalist will die"?

Sorry you are clearly not engaging in good faith, I'm done

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#986

Post by sharp_runner_84 »

jacquesm wrote: post #844
sharp_runner_84 wrote: post #249

this was kind of inevitable once prediction markets got large enough. when traders have millions in open positions on geopolitical events, they have direct financial incentive to suppress or promote specific narratives. same dynamic as short sellers attacking companies, but applied to real-world events instead of stocks. the whole prediction market thesis assumes information flows freely into prices — breaks down whe…

> the whole prediction market thesis assumes information flows freely into prices — breaks down when participants start trying to influence the information itself How naive can you possibly be...

lol fair enough, naive is a strong word but yeah i get your point. i didnt mean nobody tries to manipulate markets — obviously they do. my point was more that the original thesis behind prediction markets assumed this would be a minor problem because the financial incentive to correct misinformation would outweigh the incentive to create it. turns out thats not always true when you can make more money threatening a journalist than trading the actual contract

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#987

Post by quantified »

onion2k wrote: post #894
quantified wrote: post #892

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, the old "let's not have gun control, criminals can always find a gun" again. Except that when there are fewer guns around it is manifestly harder for more criminals to find. In a very strict sense, you are right. But people influence other people, and people who wouldn't act this aggressively otherwise find themselves inspired to after taking a bet.

Ah, the old "let's not have gun control, criminals can always find a gun" again. Except that when there are fewer guns around it is manifestly harder for more criminals to find. That's not my argument though. Gambling is not the equivalent of a gun in this situation. Gambling is the catalyst, sure, but the crime is making death threats. Removing all the reasons why people might make death threats in order to stop the…

Removing the reason you have to make death threats is the key. You don't go around looking for reasons to make death threats, making them somewhere else if you can't for a bet.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#988

Post by mpalmer »

colesantiago wrote: post #983
mpalmer wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not responding to your gish gallop BS. Why do you (obviously) think betting markets are good?

Are you able to point to where I explicitly said I liked it rather than putting words in my mouth to fit your narrative? Maybe you should calm down re-read the thread before you turn red hot with anger.

You are either an unthinking contrarian, or you care deeply about the continued legality of Polymarket specifically, because your responses to the points being made against you are inane.

"you're talking about death threats, those have happened before"

I am talking about THESE death threats. THESE death threats would not have happened if it wasn't possible for any sociopath to stake a million bucks on an arbitrary event of journalist interest.

that is why I am extremely comfortable never replying to you again. good luck on the next bridge burning.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#989

Post by xXSLAYERXx »

1024core wrote: post #472
xXSLAYERXx wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The marketing is what bothers me the most. These books market very aggressively in app: Take Daves 5 leg parlay; Share your picks! 30% profit boost if you do a 4 leg parlay that'll never hit. Its constant engagement. Contrast this to a real bookie: Open app. Place bet. Meet once a week in parking lot. Small chatter. Pass envelope.

Reminds me of this wild story: https://www.si.com/betting/2023/09/15/fake-indian-cricket-le... Basically, a fake "Cricket league" was setup up in rural India, complete with online streaming, play by play commentary, etc. just to fool gamblers in Russia. Worth the read.

Great article, thanks for sharing. Reminds me of here in the states during early covid. Betting on darts in some Eastern European league knowing full well the fix could be in.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#990

Post by basisword »

gzread wrote: post #463
basisword wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to stop with the "prediction markets" bs naming. They're gambling websites with a larger variety of things you can gamble on.

They don't call themselves that, because online gambling is illegal. It's a bit like all the piracy websites being "an archive of Nintendo content to preserve it for future generations"

Yes but we should call them what they are. They can call themselves what they like.
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