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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#981

Post by dragontamer »

stouset wrote: post #652
ziofill wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this. A metaphor I like is that the reason why humans say the night sky is beautiful is because they see that it is, whereas an LLM says it because it’s been said enough times in its training data.

To play devil’s advocate, you have never seen the night sky. Photoreceptors in your eye have been excited in the presence of photons. Those photoreceptors have relayed this information across a nerve to neurons in your brain which receive this encoded information and splay it out to an array of other neurons. Each cell in this chain can rightfully claim to be a living organism in and of itself. “You” haven’t directly…

Why do you reject your own body? Your eyes are as much a part of you (and part of your brains network) as anything else connected to you.

Indeed, the entire field of neurobiology is about figuring out which hormones (and possibly which imbalances) cause different behaviors. Your various endocrine glands, very far away from your brain, might have more effects on your emotions than anything happening in the neural pathways.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#982

Post by LarsDu88 »

danans wrote: post #930
LarsDu88 wrote: post #880

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is actually a pretty good point, but quite honestly isn't this just an implementation detail? We can wire up a squirrel robot, give it a wifi connection to a Cerebras inference engine with a big context window, then let it run about during the day collecting a video feed while directing it to do "squirrel stuff". Then during the night, we make it go to sleep and use the data collected during the day to continue…

> then let it run about during the day collecting a video feed while directing it to do "squirrel stuff". Your phrase "squirrel stuff" is doing a lot of work. What are the robo-squirrels "goals" and how does it relate to the physical robot? Is it going around trying to find spare electronic parts to repair itself and reproduce? How does the video feed data relate to its goals? Where do these goals come from? Despite…

The question is about sensory experience, not goals. Goals in the robot could be prompted in. Goals in the squirrel can be easily hacked using strong doses of opiates.

Go to any American metropolitan downtown, and you can see humans who have hacked their evolved reward system to seek heroin rather than reproduction.

Following Dawkin's the Selfish Gene, the idea that organisms consciously seek self-survival or the survival of their "race or species" is a complete fallacy. The higher order "goal" of the squirrel is to simply propagate fragments of its DNA. This type of "goal" is completely tangential to "intelligence"

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#983

Post by sosodev »

dang wrote: post #631
sosodev wrote: post #77

I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.

It takes time for more reflective comments to appear, because reflection is a slower mental operation. Reflexive responses are much faster and tend to be generic and shallow. ( https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... ) I believe this distinction is pretty fundamental to humans, so we're not likely to escape it, but the good news is that reflective comments do show up eventually if the article…

Thank you. Reflexive vs reflective is a good way to frame it. You're right that the reflective comments do show up eventually so I suppose I need to be more patient too.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#984

Post by RivieraKid »

haspok wrote: post #957
RivieraKid wrote: post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo's self-driving cars are scaling quickly. With some inaccuracy it can be said that the problem is solved, we have the technology for a full-scale deployment, we just need to do the boring work to deploy it everywhere.

> Also, when you look at these cars and there’s no one driving, I actually think it’s a little bit deceiving because there are very elaborate teleoperation centers of people kind of in a loop with these cars. I don’t have the full extent of it, but there’s more human-in-the-loop than you might expect. There are people somewhere out there beaming in from the sky. I don’t know if they’re fully in the loop with the driv…

The car can ask for remote assistance, which doesn't happen often.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#985

Post by auntienomen »

stack_framer wrote: post #259

Just like fusion. It will revolutionize the world, but it's always just ... one more decade away.

Fusion is a lot closer than it used to be. In the last decade, research uncovered a relatively large regime that seems like it could be commercializable. I know a couple researchers who've recently exited academia / national labs to start commercial fusion power companies. Maybe they fail, but they're optimistic enough to make the bet.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#986

Post by danielmarkbruce »

vasco wrote: post #943
sashank_1509 wrote: post #856

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo has promised to launch In London and Tokyo next year. New York, London, Tokyo probably covers the entire spectrum of difficulty for self driving cars, maybe we need to include Mumbai as the final boss but I would be happy saying self driving is solved if the above 3 cities have a working 24/7 self driving fleet

The final boss could be something like Scottland mountain roads, or some of the million beaches on a cliff in Greece where this "you have to first reverse" kinda situation happens every 30 seconds.

No no, the final boss is a dozen of them have to race around such roads, no crashes allowed, and they must all finish at exactly the same time. Blindfolded.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#987

Post by davesque »

K0balt wrote: post #457

We will never achieve AGI, because we keep moving the goalposts. SOTA models are already capable of outperforming any human on earth in a dizzying array of ways, especially when you consider scale. Humans also produce nonsensical, useless output. Lots of it. Yes, LLMs have many limitations that humans easily transcend. But few if any humans on earth can demonstrate the breadth and depth of competence that a SOTA mode…

> But few if any humans on earth can demonstrate the breadth and depth of competence that a SOTA model possesses.

Most humans can count the occurrence of letters in a word. The word competence here is doing quite a bit of work. I think most people understand competence to mean more than just encyclopedic knowledge, with very limited reasoning capability.

> AGI never meant human level intelligence until the LLM age. It just meant that a system could generalize one domain from knowledge gained in other domains without supervision or programming.

I think it's probably correct to say that many people who seriously studied the problem had a larger notion of AGI than the layperson who only ever talked about the Turing test in the most basic terms. Also, I don't think LLMs have even convincingly demonstrated a great ability to generalize.

They're basically really great natural language search engines but for the fact that they give incorrect but plausible answers about 5-10% of the time.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#988

Post by Sateeshm »

tim333 wrote: post #508
hax0ron3 wrote: post #355

If the transcript is accurate, Karpathy does not actually ever, in this interview, say that AGI is a decade away, or make any concrete claims about how far away AGI is. Patel's title is misleading.

He says re agents: >They don't have enough intelligence, they're not multimodal enough, they can't do computer use and all this stuff. They don't do a lot of the things you've alluded to earlier. They don't have continual learning. You can't just tell them something and they'll remember it. They're cognitively lacking and it's just not working. >It will take about a decade to work through all of those issues. (2:20)

And the decade timeframe is mostly based on his intuition and previous experience with such leaps.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#989

Post by spjt »

rhetocj23 wrote: post #833
spjt wrote: post #553

The thing about AGI is that if it's even possible, it's not coming before the money runs out of the current AI hype cycle. At least we'll all be able to pick up a rack of secondhand H100's for a tenner and a pack of smokes to run uncensored diffusion models on in a couple years. The real devastation will be in the porn industry.

"The real devastation will be in the porn industry." The UK govt has started to crack down on this. AI generated porn will lead to a war from govts on nailing this economic activity shut.

Good luck cracking down when local inference gets cheap.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#990

Post by jakeydus »

Yoric wrote: post #187
jakeydus wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what they say, a Silicon Valley 9 is a 10 anywhere else. Or something like that.

I assume you're describing the fact that Silicon Valley culture keeps pushing out products before they're fully baked?

It was a half-baked joke along the lines of "A New York 6 is a Utah 10" or something like that, one of those that crops up in a sitcom every once in a while. Like a silicon valley product, I should have let it develop further before pushing it out for public consumption.
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