This here reminds me a bubble in the making. Like South Sea Bubble to be precise.
Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
981–990 of 1001 posts
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#982I'm confused and a bit disturbed; honestly having a very difficult time internalizing and processing this information. This announcement is making me wonder if I'm poorly calibrated on the current progress of AI development and the potential path forward. Is the key idea here that current AI development has figured out enough to brute force a path towards AGI? Or I guess the alternative is that they expect to figure…
> I don't know how to make sense of this level of investment. The thing about investments, specifically in the world of tech startups and VC money, is that speculation is not something you merely capitalize on as an investor, it's also something you capitalize on as a business. Investors desperately want to speculate (gamble) on AI to scratch that itch, to the tune of $500 billion, apparently. So this says less about…
note that the $500 Billion number is bravado / aspirational. MSFT Nadella said he has $80B to contribute? It is a live auction horse race in some ways, it seems.
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#983Tangential, but this has gotten me thinking... I used to wonder how the hundreds of thousands of employees that work in Big Oil or Big Pharma could tolerate all the terrible things their company does... e.g. the opioid epidemic. The naive optimist in me never thought that the tech industry would ever be that bad. Now, as someone thats been in the industry for 10+ years and working adjacent to LLMs, this is all so dep…
Thank you for being the voice of reason.
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#984This is so much money with which we could actually solve problems in the world. maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues. maybe i am getting to old or to friendly to humans, but it's staggering to me how the priorities are for such things.
I am surprised at the negativity from HN. Their clear goal is to build superintelligence. Listen to any of the interviews with Altman, Demis Hassabis, or Dario Amodei (Anthropic) on the purpose of this. They discuss the roadmaps to unlimited energy, curing disease, farming innovations to feed billions, permanent solutions to climate change, and more. Does no one on HN believe in this anymore? Isn't this tech startup…
Unlimited energy? No, I don't believe in this. I thought people on HN generally accepted science and not nonsense. A "superintelligence" that would ... what? Destroy the middle, destroy the economy, cause riots and civil wars? If its even possible. Sounds great.
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#985Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am surprised at the negativity from HN. Their clear goal is to build superintelligence. Listen to any of the interviews with Altman, Demis Hassabis, or Dario Amodei (Anthropic) on the purpose of this. They discuss the roadmaps to unlimited energy, curing disease, farming innovations to feed billions, permanent solutions to climate change, and more. Does no one on HN believe in this anymore? Isn't this tech startup…
All of those things would put them out of business if realized and are just a PR smokescreen. Have we not seen enough of these people to know their character? They're predators who, from all accounts, sacrifice every potentially meaningful personal relationship for money, long after they have more than most people could ever dream of. If we legalized gladiatorial blood sport and it became a billion-dollar business, t…
That's the crazy thing about this "super AI" business is that at some point no one would buy it because no one could afford because no one has a job (spare me the UBI magic money fantasy). I love the body positivity line. But if such a thing came to pass, I think something different would probably happen to the rich.
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#986This is so much money with which we could actually solve problems in the world. maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues. maybe i am getting to old or to friendly to humans, but it's staggering to me how the priorities are for such things.
cant bribe an exponential curve for peace through linear surplus redistribution .
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#987Earlier quoted context omitted.
"There are maybe a few hundred people in the world who viscerally understand what's coming. Most are at DeepMind / OpenAI / Anthropic / X but some are on the outside. You have to be able to forecast the aggregate effect of rapid algorithmic improvement, aggressive investment in building RL environments for iterative self-improvement, and many tens of billions already committed to building data centers. Either we're a…
I am not qualified to make any assumptions but I do wonder if a massive investment into computing infrastructure serves national security purposes beyond AI. Like building subway stations that also happen to serve as bomb shelters. Are there computing and cryptography problems that the infrastructure could be (publicly or quietly) reallocated to address if the United States found itself in a conflict? Any cryptograph…
I'm not a cryptographer, nor am I good with math (actually I suck badly; consider yourself warned...), but am I curious about how threatened password hashes should feel if the 'AI juggernauts' suddenly fancy themselves playing on the red team, so I quickly did some (likely poor) back-of-the-napkin calculations.
'Well known' password notwithstanding, let's use the following as a password:
correct-horse-battery-staple
This password is 28 characters long, and whilst it could be stronger with uppercase letters, numbers, and special characters, it still shirtfronts a respectable ~1,397,958,111 decillion (1.39 × 10^42) combinations for an unsuspecting AI-turned-hashcat cluster to crack. Let's say this password was protected by SHA2-256 (assuming no cryptographic weaknesses exist (I haven't checked, purely for academic purposes)), and that at least 50% of hashes would need to be tested before 'success' flourishes (lets try to make things a bit exciting...).
I looked up a random benchmark for hashcat, and found an average of 20 gigahashs/second (GH/s) for a single RTX 4090.
If we throw 100 RTX 4090s at this hashed password, assuming a uniform 20 GH/s (combined firepower of 2,000 GH/s) and absolutely perfect running conditions, it would take at least eleven-nonillion-fifty octillion (1.105 x 10^31) years to crack. Earth will be long gone by the time that rolls around.
Turning up the heat (perhaps literally) by throwing 1,000,000 RTX 4090s at this hashed password, assuming the same conditions, doesn't help much (in terms of Earth's lifespan): two-octillion-two-hundred-ten septillion (2.21 x 10^27) years.
Using some recommended password specifications from NIST - 15 characters comprised of upper and lower-case letters, numbers, and special characters - lets try:
dXIl5p*Vn6Gt#BH
Despite the higher complexity, this password only just eeks out a paltry ~ 41 sextillion (4.11 × 10^22) possible combinations. Throwing 100 RTX 4090s at this password would, rather worryingly, only take around three hundred twenty-six billion seven hundred thirteen million two hundred seventeen thousand (326,713,217,000) years to have a 50% chance of success. My calculator didn't even turn my answer into a scientific number!
More alarming still, is when 1,000,000 RTX 4090s get sic'ed on the shorter hashed password: around thirty-two million six hundred seventy-one thousand (32,671,000) years to knock down half of this hashed password's strength.
I read a report that suggested Microsoft aimed to have 1.8 million GPUs by the end of 2024. We'll probably be safe for at least the next six months or so. All bets are off after that.
All I dream about is the tital wave of cheap high-performance GPUs flooding the market when the AI bubble bursts, so I can finally run Farcry at 25 frames per second for less than a grand.
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#988This is so much money with which we could actually solve problems in the world. maybe even stop wars which break out because of scarcity issues. maybe i am getting to old or to friendly to humans, but it's staggering to me how the priorities are for such things.
For less than this same price tag, we could’ve eliminated student loan debt for ~20 million Americans. It would in turn open a myriad number of opportunities, like owning a home and/or feeling more comfortable starting a family. It would stimulate the economy in predictable ways. Instead we gave a small number of people all of this money for a moonshot in a state where they squabble over who’s allowed to use which ba…
You are forgetting the fact that this is a private investment, whereas the student loans problem should be solved by the government. No private institutions will have any interests in paying off student loans.
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#989Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ellison should be nowhere near this: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/09/omnip... The man has the moral system of a private prison and the money to build one.
> "Citizens will be on their best behavior because we are constantly recording and reporting everything that's going on," Let's be honest. He isn't wrong. I'd rather live in a society with zero crime than what we have now.
Who will supervise the gate keepers?
Re: Stargate Project: SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX to build data centers
#990While OpenAI and the rest of the industry is reaching AGI, Apple is out here shipping features with ChatGPT 3.5 technology.
let's be serious no one is reaching any AGI