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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#971

Post by Pay08 »

margalabargala wrote: post #754
alephnerd wrote: post #744

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. > Strong regulation and legal consequences... Functionally, you are correct. But the crux of the issue is Polymarket and Kalshi (YC W19) have successfully argued that they are technically a platform that is democratizing "futures", and thus falls under the CFTC - not gambling. Nothing…

Which is of course a blatant abuse of our legal system, since they are doing nothing different than a casino's roulette or blackjack tables. "Red futures pay out at 2:1!" "Get your future here on whether the dealer's cards are higher than your own!"

I'd agree with the blackjack comparison, but not roulette. Both "futures betting" and blackjack need skill to be able to win even if luck plays a significant part, as opposed to roulette, which is just pure luck.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#972

Post by Pay08 »

hattmall wrote: post #944
awakeasleep wrote: post #389

I’m surprised no one has mentioned that there was no safe course of action for the journalist because there was money on both sides of this outcome. No matter what he reported, he would have the other side threatening him.

Defer to an actual authority. Where is the official report on whether or not it was an interception? Even with a large explosion the fact that it landed in a wooded area implies it was intercepted. Those are targeted missiles, an acceptable result of an interception is to bring it down in an undeveloped area. So I would think there should be some sort of authority with official capacity to state what happened, not ju…

Iranians primarily use rockets, not missiles. It's perfectly possible, even likely, that said rocket just missed. If you read the article, the journalist did actually say he had a military source...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#973

Post by Pay08 »

OutOfHere wrote: post #968
inerte wrote: post #775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also hard to have 3 independent outlets report on all the thing.s This seems like a small story that only some people in Polymarket cared about I guess? It's not like 3 different news outlets were calling authorities to confirm what really happened here. It wasn't big enough to deserve more than 1 journalist going to the source and doing all this work.

Israel doesn't have a free press, so it stays largely suppressed. If it did, surely more local news outlets would cover it. Israel strongly censors domestic war news.

This always seems like such a lazy way of thinking. How do you know more local news outlets didn't report it? More to the point, do you even speak Hebrew? If not, how would you be able to tell whether or not it was reported on, or what the local outlets are in the first place?

Also, how does a large, national newspaper reporting on it indicate a lack of free press?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#974

Post by Pay08 »

senderista wrote: post #954
TurdF3rguson wrote: post #780

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because translation is so very hard?

Yes, for colloquial speech to be plausible to a native speaker.

I assume the strange English translations of some of the Hebrew messages are because the messages were badly translated to Hebrew. It certainly sounds like the kind of result you'd get out of Google Translate.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#975

Post by Pay08 »

Uptrenda wrote: post #782

It seems strange to me that a single source would be used to resolve a bet any way. You have all this crap to make a platform "decentralized" and then it all collapses down to: "bruh, it happened, I swear." It really makes me realize how often blockchain / decentralization / "cryptography" projects are nothing more than pseudo-technical theater. Peak hype-driven development.

Apparently resolving bets requires at least 3 sources. At the same time, ToI is the largest news outlet in Israel (that reports in English), so I imagine it'd get a lot of the focus.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#976

Post by Pay08 »

tptacek wrote: post #358
GolfPopper wrote: post #341

Why is everyone assuming at face value that the threats are actually coming from gamblers, and not from the Israeli government trying to downplay the domestic impact of the war?

Probably because it's 100% par for the course for online betting, unless you think it's Israel sending death threats to French tennis players for blowing people's prop bets.

I've seen crazier conspiracy theories...

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#977

Post by Pay08 »

fsckboy wrote: post #963
worldsavior wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What censorship does Israel do?

Israel does military censorship, same as any other country, you can't communicate information that would harm the defense of the country or aid its enemies. Israel is in a hostile and armed neighborhood with frequent hot conflicts, both regular military and irregular forces, so the issue is fairly everpresent compared to other Western style democracies such as in Europe where their neighbors are peaceful.

The EU does quite a lot of military and non-military censorship as well, such as banning RT and its ilk.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#978

Post by Pay08 »

litoE wrote: post #499
GolfPopper wrote: post #341

Why is everyone assuming at face value that the threats are actually coming from gamblers, and not from the Israeli government trying to downplay the domestic impact of the war?

Because it's in the Israeli government's interest to make the threat from Iran look bigger, rather than smaller?

You could reasonably argue that both are in their interest, and which one they choose to push is down to a decision. The war already has popular support in Israel (last time I checked, the quoted number was 86% in support) so the government wouldn't gain all that much from extra fearmongering, especially with the messaging coming from the Iranian government.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#979

Post by maeglin »

culi wrote: post #641
varjag wrote: post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're welcome to find a piece of their writing where they unequivocally support Ukraine without ifs, buts, and NATO-didits.

In their own words: > We categorically condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and support U.S. assistance for Ukraine’s self-defense. https://quincyinst.org/2022/07/12/quincy-institutes-position... Also, having nuance and historical context does not mean they are "pro-Russia". We should be celebrating institutions that challenge propaganda narratives with context not hunting down anyone that doesn't fall in li…

> Russian concessions would permit the establishment of a secure, sovereign, Western–aligned Ukrainian state on approximately 80 percent of its pre-2014 territory.

https://quincyinst.org/research/frequently-asked-questions-a...

Saying we categorically condemn is not a position. Saying Russia is entitled to 20% of Ukraine's pre-2022 territory is a position.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#980

Post by margalabargala »

Pay08 wrote: post #971
margalabargala wrote: post #754

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is of course a blatant abuse of our legal system, since they are doing nothing different than a casino's roulette or blackjack tables. "Red futures pay out at 2:1!" "Get your future here on whether the dealer's cards are higher than your own!"

I'd agree with the blackjack comparison, but not roulette. Both "futures betting" and blackjack need skill to be able to win even if luck plays a significant part, as opposed to roulette, which is just pure luck.

Roulette is not pure luck, the amount of skill needed is just significantly higher.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-how-to-beat-roulette...

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