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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#361

Post by carlosjobim »

kibwen wrote: post #322
empath75 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, a fun historical fact is that insurance markets started with people in coffee houses betting on whether or not ships would sink for fun. Eventually ship owners realized that if they bet on their own ship sinking, that it reduced the financial risk of travel, then betters realized that ship owners were doing that and decided to research before taking the other side of the bet, and so on until you end up with ship…

> insurance markets started with people in coffee houses Regardless of whether or not that anecdote is true, insurance is one of the oldest human institutions. We have records of Hammurabi's code from ancient Babylon that pertain to insurance (including ship insurance).

Referenced here: https://risk-engineering.org/concept/history-of-insurance

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#362

Post by virgil_disgr4ce »

Balgair wrote: post #212
Waterluvian wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…

Friend of a friend does announcing online. Like, you pay him a little ( So, he got a gig to announce the opening of loot boxes at some show. I think it was Fortnite loot boxes. I guess it gives you the total value of the loot box spree you opened. So, 2 people buy a bunch of loot boxes, then open them up, then whoever has the higher value wins and takes both of the people's total haul. Sounds like a strange thing to…

Reminds me of the cheap bets casino from National Lampoons Vegas Vacation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byfewcZsug4

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#363

Post by eknkc »

I believe this is the bet in question: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-strikes-israel-on

This caught my attention today as it was in dispute and there were a lot of comments (moslty angry). I like browsing polymarket (never placed a bet myself but it is fun to see the prices). Always thought this would kill someone someday..

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#364

Post by andrewflnr »

GolfPopper wrote: post #341

Why is everyone assuming at face value that the threats are actually coming from gamblers, and not from the Israeli government trying to downplay the domestic impact of the war?

Because that's a silly idea. When missiles are flying over people's heads and everyone is running into bomb shelters, Israel would get approximately no benefit from nitpicking a single story, certainly not enough to justify a harassment campaign involving lots of people with cover stories. On the other hand, gamblers have a very concrete motivation and a long history of doing unhinged things to get it. There's no reason to look for depth.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#366

Post by carlosjobim »

xvector wrote: post #82
laurentiurad wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yea just throw the CEO of microsoft in jail too because illegal transactions are set via Xbox live.

Betting markets are legally required to have KYC. If you or I operated a casino illegally we would ABSOLUTELY be thrown in jail. Do you seriously think fraudulent Xbox live transactions are on the same level of the heinous insider trading going on in betting markets? Or do you just think C-suite should be legally immune from accountability overall? Polymarket's decentralized and anonymous nature was an intentional ch…

From where has it entered your mind that they don't do KYC?

Anybody can send anonymous threats, that has nothing to do with any betting company, unless they are sent through that platform.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#367

Post by fwipsy »

Zigurd wrote: post #348
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

You will no doubt find some rational sounding arguments in favor of prediction markets here. Lots of useless and harmful things are fascinating. The math behind cryptocurrency, and things like the difference between proof of work and proof of stake are fascinating. But that doesn't make cryptocurrencies good. The genetics of tulip bulbs must be fascinating too.

Prediction markets are a separate concept from cryptocurrency. You can run one on cash within the typical KYC regime. If the arguments in favor of prediction markets sound rational, maybe they are rational?

I'd argue that prediction markets are more like stock markets. Very useful, but they also create opportunities for abuse which will need to be addressed. If they are eliminated later because the current administration refuses to regulate them, that would be a huge shame.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#368

Post by thrance »

bagacrap wrote: post #309
pindab0ter wrote: post #210

I think time and time again that incentives are most important in determining how a market and by extension a society behaves. These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity. These markets allow you to bet on when the invasion of a foreign country or the demise of a person happens. There comes a point where one bets against someone to die and you will see themselves incentivized to make that happ…

Technically you can't bet on the demise of a person, at least in the US, as participants recently discovered when the previous supreme leader of Iran was killed and their "leadership change" bet did not pay out.

There are bets like "X out of function by april" which are functionally equivalent to betting on their demise.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#369

Post by worldsavior »

bhouston wrote: post #94

An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the…

What censorship does Israel do?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#370

Post by postexitus »

alkonaut wrote: post #290

So Polymarket would settle the bet based on reporting from a single source? That seems to be very open to manipulation. In fact, for something as inconsequential as this, I'd just bet heavily myself if I were the reporter.

Not even that. It is settling a bet on voting. But you are taking a bet on voting on the right side of the outcome. This is independent on the actual bet - this is outcome voting. You make very little money if you vote on correct outcome, and lose a lot if you vote on wrong outcome. So there is an incentive on voting on correct outcome.

https://rocknblock.io/blog/how-prediction-markets-resolution...

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