Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

npr.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

971–980 of 1001 posts

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#971

Post by nradov »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #960
nradov wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What specific long-term gain will we achieve with that short-term sacrifice? Sure we can keep most gyms closed for several more months, and that might marginally reduce the spread of the virus for a while. But the virus is now endemic and will be with us essentially forever. We have to reopen gyms eventually, and then we'll be right back where we started. As long as the curve has been flattened sufficiently and the h…

> What specific long-term gain will we achieve with that short-term sacrifice It's a collective action problem. If everyone keeps to mask mandate and social distancing for a month, there is no need to close gyms and schools after. Germany and Italy are fine now with maybe ten deaths a day. If 20% of the population keeps ignoring the recommendations because they don't give a flying fuck about the society they live in,…

It seems that not everyone in Germany is wearing masks and social distancing.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-protests-coronavirus/a-5445665...

Pandemic control measures can temporarily suppress R0, but as soon as those measures are lifted the contagion picks up again.

The average age of grandparents in the US is about 65. The actual infection fatality rate for that age group is 1.3%. That's bad, but nowhere near half the neighborhood.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#972

Post by nradov »

johnwalkr wrote: post #950
nradov wrote: post #879

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how long are you expecting people to avoid the more risky activities? What are the exit criteria? Obviously there is not going to be a total lockdown in the the US no matter what happens. Regardless of the potential benefits, that option isn't even remotely politically feasible. People simply won't comply, and there aren't enough police to enforce it.

Look at Asian cities, they generally set criteria, and open and close activities in stages based on the criteria. I live in Tokyo and without much of a lockdown (I’d argue for a bit more action myself), things are OK. Right now bars are supposed to close at 10pm and people are going out less. But they’re still going to work (with masks). Obviously the political situation and what’s feasible is different, but I hope r…

That's a low effort comment which doesn't address the issue. Which specific criteria do you think we ought to follow? Why are bars considered safe but gyms aren't? Are Tokyo residents wearing masks in bars?

Again there is no political possibility of a future strict lockdown in the US. So for better or worse it has already been avoided.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#973

Post by TeaDrunk »

donor20 wrote: post #548
ceejayoz wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe because nobody successfully proved to these people (me included) that this sacrifice is useful. > people who are at risk of dying can protect themselves even around sick people (wearing a mask, staying at home, washing hands, ...) This makes it clear "nobody successfully proved" really means "I didn't bother to listen". The messaging on masks has long been "they reduce transmission by infected people", not "t…

And you are the one not listening. In EVERY other country you can buy masks, and they were strongly encouraged, that prevented YOU from getting sick. South Koreas KF94 masks come to mind, very good coverage and fit (3 parts including one under chin). And despite the lies basically posted by you and plenty of others including health authorities (don't wear masks if you are "healthy", masks can't protect you from covid…

> In EVERY other country you can buy masks, and they were strongly encouraged, that prevented YOU from getting sick.

What? I’m East Asian from a country known for mask wearing and this is definitely not how mask wearing is treated. It’s definitely to protect other people from you!

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#974

Post by shmel »

reaperducer wrote: post #50
adolph wrote: post #14

Unlike actual prohibition, the social agreement behind "lockdowns" is subject to time contingencies. The activities considered "essential" grow as time passes. While there are nominal categories of "essential" defined by community/political leaders, that contract depends on agreement. Since each person's conception of "essential" is different, as time passes "essential" grows exponentially instead of linearly.

Since each person's conception of "essential" is different There was someone on WGN-TV a few weeks ago lamenting that it was insulting for all of the hairdressers and manicurists and yoga instructors to be called "non-essential." I thought it was more insulting for that person to value the work of hairdressers and manicurists and yoga instructors on an equal basis with firefighters, doctors, paramedics, and actual re…

Do you call a Walmart cashier to save a baby? Wine story employee? Cannabis dispensary staff? I felt insulted that in the country I live in luxury wine stores were essential and open throughout the lockdown while gyms were not. If I can forego gym for a few months, sure as hell you can survive without a bottle of Bordeaux. And this is with all the rhetorics about public health.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#975

Post by Wheaties466 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #565
donor20 wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you are the one not listening. In EVERY other country you can buy masks, and they were strongly encouraged, that prevented YOU from getting sick. South Koreas KF94 masks come to mind, very good coverage and fit (3 parts including one under chin). And despite the lies basically posted by you and plenty of others including health authorities (don't wear masks if you are "healthy", masks can't protect you from covid…

N95s are still quite difficult to find here in the US. Cloth and non-medical disposable masks are not considered protective (although it's likely they block some inbound particles, and there's evidence they may thus result in a gentler illness on average) but do reduce transmission. You're right that there are multiple kinds of masks; in the US, it's kinda pointless to talk about N95s. No one's wearing them, in part…

this website was spun up to combat price gouging, they have also always had n95 masks in stock for a reasonable price.

https://maskorlando.com/

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#976

Post by urza »

readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

>I would call the "proper authorities"

You must be a really nice person.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#977

Post by artursapek »

therealdrag0 wrote: post #890
artursapek wrote: post #858

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think we're going to get immunity like we have with the flu, if everyone is hiding in their basement?

You don't need immunity if you exterminate the virus, which some countries have done..

That's ridiculous. Maybe they're "exterminated" it temporarily. There's absolutely no way the entire world will be rid of it if we ever expect to get international travel back.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#978

Post by lkbm »

randomchars wrote: post #936
lkbm wrote: post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think vaccines are a miracle. They're not certain, but that doesn't make them miracles. The exit strategy should be to enough of a lock-down to get rates very low. This would likely have to be combined with quick-turnaround testing and contact tracing. The US largely failed with this. Other countries show what an exit strategy could have looked like. I'm not sure if it's still viable, but maybe. This is what…

> The exit strategy should be to enough of a lock-down to get rates very low But if you get the infection rates very low, and reopen, the infection rates will go up, unless something fundamental has changed.

The first fundamentally different thing should be the presence good testing and contact tracing. With high rates, I don't think that's a viable strategy, but if cases are few enough, it should work.

Different countries have done different things, but my understanding is that South Korea avoided a lock down for the most part by implementing this before cases were widespread. They occasionally add some temporary restrictions, but I think "sometimes we have to add some restrictions until there's a vaccine" is a livable long-term situation. What we're seeing in the US is that for a lot of people, our current situation isn't.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#979

Post by therealdrag0 »

artursapek wrote: post #977
therealdrag0 wrote: post #890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need immunity if you exterminate the virus, which some countries have done..

That's ridiculous. Maybe they're "exterminated" it temporarily. There's absolutely no way the entire world will be rid of it if we ever expect to get international travel back.

SARS-CoV-1 was exterminates wasn’t it? You been worried about Ebola or TB recently? We’ve gotten really far with some muscle. But for some reason lots is ppl gave up on Cov19 real fast.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#980

Post by tacocataco »

curryst wrote: post #703
JackFr wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On of the problems with the lockdown orders was that to a large extent they were arbitrary with respect to what was essential and open ended with respect to time. Such a prohibition could be effective if the public trusted the people or process which led to the lock downs, but the people showed themselves scarcely worthy of our trust and there really was no process. "We believe in science" is a fine mantra, though it…

I think some of the "essential" businesses were more essential to people maintaining their sanity than essential for people to survive. It was a "bread and circuses" play. Liquor stores and dispensaries are on that list; if you're going to lock everyone down for an extended period of time, they're going to get bored. Bored people get unhappy, and unrest increases. Letting people have their booze and weed increases th…

Severe alcoholics will die without booze, but you're still right.
Post reply on HN