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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#951

Post by tallanvor »

b0rsuk wrote: post #925
ehnto wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me preface: I've abstained from going to the gym since we went into lockdown, and even now that we are out of it here. I am looking into equipment at home, and I can at least keep my fitness, if not my strength, by going mountain biking. That said, there are many types of training you can't do without the right equipment, so it's at least a bit more than just wanting to be with others. Strength training/powerlift…

Can't you do calisthenics ? There's a ton of possible exercise which uses only your body weight, or only minimal equipment like a pull-up bar. Can you do a one-legged squat? Pushup with a hand stand? Dragon flag? Many other exercises on youtube which make you sweat in minutes.

Body weight exercises can be great and useful in maintaining a certain level of fitness, but you're very limited in the ability to increase your muscle mass using them.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#952

Post by austhrow743 »

aflag wrote: post #457
bazzert wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> We're approaching the total death toll of World War II[3]. assuming you mean the US death toll also bear in mind the median age of WW II casualties was something like 26; while the median age for covid victims is 75+. Not to diminish the latter but they are very different.

Not sure if I follow your point? Are you saying this is less of a tragety because these people lived 50 years longer?

I don't know if they were saying it, but they would have been correct to do so if they were.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#953

Post by Cthulhu_ »

jdhn wrote: post #379
alistairSH wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...We are now on month 7... And if people had actually sheltered in place back in March, we might be opening back up (or opening with fewer COVID clusters).

I don't believe this for a second. The total number of people that managed to contract it in New Zealand within the last week was under 10, and they locked down an entire city because of it.

They locked down the city so that they wouldn't have to lock down the country and bury thousands.

The US death toll is over 170.000 now because both people and government alike did not take the measures needed to contain the disease.

But hey, 170.000 is just a number, right? Just like the trillions gained in the stock market. Fuck the people that died, they were weak. Right?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#954

Post by Cthulhu_ »

tallanvor wrote: post #951
b0rsuk wrote: post #925

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't you do calisthenics ? There's a ton of possible exercise which uses only your body weight, or only minimal equipment like a pull-up bar. Can you do a one-legged squat? Pushup with a hand stand? Dragon flag? Many other exercises on youtube which make you sweat in minutes.

Body weight exercises can be great and useful in maintaining a certain level of fitness, but you're very limited in the ability to increase your muscle mass using them.

Muscle mass gain is a weird luxury anyway; what's important now is to maintain your fitness level, moreso than looking swole.

Calisthenics moves on the other hand require an enormous amount of strength and muscle control, something you can't gain from "just" lifting weights.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#955

Post by didibus »

thekyle wrote: post #313
didibus wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, there's been 172k death in half a year for Covid. And if using the worst case data for flu season, it's 61k per year. So it's looking like for a full year, it'll be 344k death for Covid versus 61k death for the flu. That makes Covid 5.6 times more deadly than the flu. But, the Covid numbers here are from a complete lockdown, where people are social distancing, wearing masks, schools are closed, everyone is…

You can't just compare absolute death totals like that. We have a vaccine for the flu which reduces the infection rate. What if the reason COVID-19 has 5.6 times more deaths is because it has 5.6 times more infections.

That's fine, when we say it's estimated to be 10 times deadlier, it isn't in terms of you being 10 times more likely to die from it than the flu if you catch it, but that Covid let loose in our population will result in 10 times more deaths.

This does take into account infection rates, it's absolutely relevant and it's the big reason for Covid being deadlier, because it is more contagious.

So from the data, we see that with social distancing, lock down, and all that, it still infects and kills 5.6 times more people than the flu does every year given the measures taken for the flu, which is to have some amount of the population vaccinated. Thus assumed that without any protections, it would be even worse, possibly killing around 620k people per year. That would put it above cancer and up there with hearth disease as the number one cause of death per year.

And that's precisely why we're hoping for a vaccine. So that we can hopefully get the infections down and stop it's crazy contagion rate to manageable numbers that result on much less deaths per year, and doesn't force us to continue with the more challenging measures for limiting the spread of the virus.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#956

Post by imtringued »

JeremyNT wrote: post #536
ehnto wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me preface: I've abstained from going to the gym since we went into lockdown, and even now that we are out of it here. I am looking into equipment at home, and I can at least keep my fitness, if not my strength, by going mountain biking. That said, there are many types of training you can't do without the right equipment, so it's at least a bit more than just wanting to be with others. Strength training/powerlift…

> That said, there are many types of training you can't do without the right equipment, so it's at least a bit more than just wanting to be with others. Strength training/powerlifting/olympic lifting all come to mind. It's often really difficult to keep a rack, barbell and hundreds of kilos of weight at home, and obviously not something people had just lying around in case of an emergency. Yeah, this is pretty import…

>Yeah, this is pretty important. I used to lift and there's simply no way that I would make the investment to have all that equipment in my house. In normal times it's incredibly wasteful for each individual to stockpile their own redundant junk, rather than share a common pool with others.

I don't see a problem with lawnmowers but I think maker spaces should be in every city. I can easily buy high quality tools for myself but I have no space in my apartment and once I'm done with a tool it feels like a waste to let it collect dust in a drawer.

There is one big problem with communal resources. Not everyone is qualified to use a tool and communal resources make it easier for unqualified people to get tools and break them.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#957

Post by gvjddbnvdrbv »

polote wrote: post #278
readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

> I find it amazing we can not see short term sacrifice for long term gain. Maybe because nobody successfully proved to these people (me included) that this sacrifice is useful. You can't tell to people, you have no risk of dying (0.5% death rate for population, much much lower for healthy and young people), people who are at risk of dying can protect themselves even around sick people (wearing a mask, staying at hom…

Some of us think about other people than ourselves...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#958

Post by Funes- »

polote wrote: post #618
michaelmrose wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people like you wont wear a mask or social distance and the portion that are asymptomatic pass it around you will help it spread far and wide maximizing the chances that even careful people will become ill eventually. Wearing a mask is mostly about keeping the respiratory droplets of the ill, including the 40-50% which don't have obvious symptoms from spreading around. If only the vulnerable wear masks they wont b…

I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to sacrifice a lot of my freedom to prevent unhealthy or old people to die. You could tell me that I'm wrong, but as far as I know, I'm the only one able to know how I want to live my life

>I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to sacrifice a lot of my freedom to prevent unhealthy or old people to die. You could tell me that I'm wrong, but as far as I know, I'm the only one able to know how I want to live my life

The problem is that you are effectively deciding how others live their lives through your careless actions. Everyone should have a say on how they want to live their lives, not just you.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#959

Post by Khaine »

Cd00d wrote: post #889
Khaine wrote: post #735

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how many of those people would have died from the normal flu? I know this is a morbid topic, but it gets to a fundamental truth. How valuable is a human life? Is it worth significantly damaging the future of the young through economic depression and increased social isolation and mental illness to extend the life old old people by a year, 5 years? There is no easy solution. We can hibernate as much of the n…

I doubt your sincerity. This is obviously different from the seasonal flu. However, I do want to address the young and increased social isolation and mental illness. Took my toddler for an annual checkup recently and asked about all this as he's been out of daycare since March and had concerns about development. The pediatrician's answer, which I found compelling was: this is a big deal, and it's going to have an imp…

No shit. I was being a bit flippant. No doubt it is different from a regular flu. My point was, there are no good options, only the least bad option. All choices we make have negative effects for different groups. Is death for someone who has lived a full life really the worst option?

I am remarkably lucky. I am fairly resilient and being stuck working from home hasn't negatively impacted my mental health. I've been promoted during the crisis. I am financially secure.

Not everyone is like me. Many people have suffered horribly due to the crisis, becoming unemployed, unable to see friends, they don't have their usual coping mechanisms. My point was, how we choose to deal with this is a choice, each choice has consequences. Currently we are saving older lives, at the expense of damaging the futures of younger generations. Is this the right balance? I don't know. I don't claim to know. But as a society, this is what we need to answer, how valuable is each human life.

Should we choose harsh lockdowns to extend the lives of older people by x years on average? What is the cost in economic and mental health harm to younger generations? How do we balance these needs?

These are the discussions we should be having, instead of decrying anyone who disagrees with the harshest of measures as a witch.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#960

Post by MagnumOpus »

nradov wrote: post #488
readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

What specific long-term gain will we achieve with that short-term sacrifice? Sure we can keep most gyms closed for several more months, and that might marginally reduce the spread of the virus for a while. But the virus is now endemic and will be with us essentially forever. We have to reopen gyms eventually, and then we'll be right back where we started. As long as the curve has been flattened sufficiently and the h…

> What specific long-term gain will we achieve with that short-term sacrifice

It's a collective action problem. If everyone keeps to mask mandate and social distancing for a month, there is no need to close gyms and schools after. Germany and Italy are fine now with maybe ten deaths a day.

If 20% of the population keeps ignoring the recommendations because they don't give a flying fuck about the society they live in, R0 will stay above 1 forever and half of your neighbourhood will see their grandparents die in the next year.

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