951–960 of 1001 posts
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One major utility of prediction markets is to get good estimates of probabilities of future events.
That's an interesting idea, though of course while we've done that with crop or livestock futures, we seem to have coped pretty well without betting on absolutely everything until now.
I don't know if prediction markets will be an important improvement, but it might be, so we should let them run.
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Not sure why you're being downvoted, you're absolutely correct. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/russia-ukraine-war-isw/
They are being downvoted because Nuland is an utterly insignificant diplomat, but serves well as a dog whistle for people who subscribe to the belief that the Maidan revolution in Ukraine was really some Obama organized coup. This is a story peddled by the Russian government, which of course is where Yanukovych promptly fled after having protestors shot. At the same time Russia was busy staging troops and material fo…
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Followed by the sentence "A cursory search of our writings and our website shows this to be false." Would you honestly genuinely describe this as "a thoroughly pro-Russian think tank"? Dishonesty
It is clear that the opinion it's pro-Russian is widespread enough they need to make advance disclaimers. You wanted "a single example backing up the claim", you got one - from the horse's mouth.
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Was I a sucker for believing that Kalshi was going to [e.g.] help farmers hedge against drought years or is the problem just morally bankrupt selection of events?
We already have an extremely complicated system of farm insurance and commodity futures for that.
I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…
This doesn't make any sense… If you want to bet on a binary outcome without knowing how much other participants are betting on the 2 possible outcomes, that's a bookie, not a prediction market. The entire rationale for claiming that prediction markets "aren't just gambling" and have a legitimate social value is that they surface sentiment and valuation in a transparent and credible way. (And that's even before we get…
I personally think that entire social value rationale is actually what makes prediction markets dangerous / socially bad
Seeing the total liquidity, fine, seeing the odds in real time, really really bad, will shape real-world outcomes vs if the market didn't exist once liquidity is high enough
I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here --- prediction markets as they are now where the odds are public really shouldn't be called prediction markets, they should be called "outcome-shaping markets" because largely that is what they do, they let people shape real-world outcomes with massive amounts of liquidity. If instead these were privacy protocols where you can see how much liquidity is…
> but no one can decrypt how much liquidity is on each side until the outcome executes This would remove the supposed purpose of prediction markets, where you can get information about the probability of an event based on how much people are betting on it.
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> Obviously this is a horrible use case, and I'm not sure if such websites actually exist or are just rumors. polymarket has an @died tag, which I assume is for betting on people's deaths (I never used the site, and it's currently inaccessible) given apparently someone recently made half a mil betting on Khamenei's death, and a cool billion was traded on bets on the timing of the bombing of iran https://www.npr.org/2…
nit: The article you linked says half a billion, not a billion. Death markets are banned in the US. Personally, I tend to think of this as a crypto problem, not a prediction market problem.
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What would that difference be?
Well, one involves two teams of consenting players involved in a game. The other involves the brutal deaths and suffering of exponentially more innocent people than those who want to be involved.
The question was, what if any is the fundamental difference between betting on a sports event vs a war?