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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#951

Post by rsynnott »

modeless wrote: post #648
phoenixreader wrote: post #604

A decade is nothing. If issues will be worked through a decade from now, that means the best time to think about opportunities/coonsequences related to that is now.

Yeah, I see people pooh-poohing the idea of humanoid robots being useful this decade, saying it will take at least 20 years. Oh yeah? Instead of 5 years to render all human labor obsolete, it will take 20? The magnitude of that change is so large that the implications of it happening anytime in our lifetimes are too big to ignore. The important thing is that this is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future…

> The important thing is that this is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like fusion. This is something that will happen.

Meanwhile, in 1950: "the important thing is that fusion is not going to be perpetually 20 years in the future like the eradication of all disease [there was a time in the 40s and 50s where people, a bit over-excited about then-new antibiotics and chemotherapy, often did believe this]. This is something that _will happen."

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#952

Post by judahmeek »

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #938
judahmeek wrote: post #907

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was that all intelligence is based on an individual's experiences, therefore an individual's intelligence is specific to those experiences. Even when we "generalize" our intelligence, we can only extend it within the realm of human senses & concepts, so it's still intelligence specific to human concerns.

So if you encounter an unknown intelligence, like I dunno some kind of extra dimensional pen pal with a wildly different biology and environment than our own... Would you be open to the possibilities: - despite our difference we have the same kind of intelligence - our intelligences intersect, but there are capacities that each has that the other doesn't ? It seems like for either to be true there would have to be so…

It's certainly possible that we may encounter other alien lifeforms whose intelligence intersects our own.

It's just not guaranteed.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#953

Post by judahmeek »

walkabout wrote: post #948
judahmeek wrote: post #908

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are your sources for that claim?

Ontology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontology Or: just try, then try your best to find ways your definition fails. You should find it challenging , to put it mildly, to create a bulletproof definition, if you’re really looking for angles to attack each definition you can think of. They’ll end up being too broad, or too narrow. Or coming up short on defining when exactly a non-chair becomes a chair, and vice-versa,…

How would I know when my definition is too broad?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#955

Post by 3abiton »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #443
ekjhgkejhgk wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interview which I've watched recently with Rich Sutton left me with the impression that AGI is not just a matter of adding more 9s. The interviewer had an idea that he took for granted: that to understand language you have to have a model of the world. LLMs seem to udnerstand language therefore they've trained a model of the world. Sutton rejected the premise immediately. He might be right in being skeptical here…

This world model talk is interesting, and Yann Lecunn has broached on the same topic, but the fact is there are video diffusion models that are quite good at representing the "video world" and even counterfactually and temporally coherently generating a representation of that "world" under different perturbations. In fact you can go to a SOTA LLM today, and it will do quite well at predicting the outcomes of basic co…

It seems to me the whole AGI problem is ill posed and barely well formalized. And thus you can always move the goal post.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#956

Post by lqstuart »

The biggest problem with “agents” as originally described is that they don’t exist, will most likely not exist in our lifetimes if ever, and meanwhile the bullshit peddlers keep quietly changing their separate definition of “agent” to the point where now it literally just means “an LLM.”

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#957

Post by haspok »

RivieraKid wrote: post #697
dlcarrier wrote: post #241

Redefinitions aside, fully capable AI is right up there with commercially viable fusion power, cost effective quantum completing, and fully capable self-driving cars, as a technology that is quickly advancing yet always a decade or two away.

Waymo's self-driving cars are scaling quickly. With some inaccuracy it can be said that the problem is solved, we have the technology for a full-scale deployment, we just need to do the boring work to deploy it everywhere.

> Also, when you look at these cars and there’s no one driving, I actually think it’s a little bit deceiving because there are very elaborate teleoperation centers of people kind of in a loop with these cars. I don’t have the full extent of it, but there’s more human-in-the-loop than you might expect. There are people somewhere out there beaming in from the sky. I don’t know if they’re fully in the loop with the driving. Some of the time they are, but they’re certainly involved and there are people. In some sense, we haven’t actually removed the person, we’ve moved them to somewhere where you can’t see them.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#958

Post by kordlessagain »

Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

So when you say first 9, you mean like Anthropic's uptime on models, right?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#960

Post by kordlessagain »

Veserv wrote: post #346
somanyphotons wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an amazing quote that really applies to all software development

Drawn from Karpathy killing a bunch of people by knowingly delivering defective autonomous driving software instead of applying basic engineering ethics and refusing to deploy the dangerous product he was in charge of.

In Texas, it's a $5K a day fine to call yourself an engineer, even in a job title on LinkedIn, and actually not be a certified engineer.
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