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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

951–960 of 968 posts

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#951
post #929

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at this shows completely different story: https://www.euromomo.eu/ January 2017 was much worse overall in Europe, it's not even comparable.

That's interesting, it shows how misleading an average can be (the average 8000 dead for the flu that I quoted). Still, if you focus on Italy, which is the most ahead in Europe, by March 28th (the time that report was updated), the number of deaths was already matching the 2017 peak (and in about 2/3 of the time). Since then the death count went up 70%. edit: also note the caution about the uncertainty due to delayed…

It seems that the website was updated a few minutes ago with data for week 14. Italy is looking much worse than 2017. England is also very scary.

The data is still lagging by a few days, but it seems that the numbers are starting to trend down.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#952

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "both sides bad" mantra is really just lazy. The false equivalence between the validity of whatever DJT says and what critics say have let even basic decency be thrown out the window, let alone facts.

You must have a reasonably short memory, because people said exactly the same sort of sensational things about Obama, and Bush Jr, and Clinton, and Bush Sr, and Reagan... There’s not really any truth or insight in what you just said. It’s simply an impassioned judgement about a politician you don’t like/disagree with/don’t trust/whatever... The truth is that most politicians are corrupt on some level, most politician…

But DJT lies a lot more than any of his predecessors, and hires a lot more incompetents, and fires a lot more competents, than any of his predecessors.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#953

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is a lot more nuanced than your manichean view is making you see.

Yes it is, and that's exactly the problem I have with defending any news outlets. None of them have those complex conversations, and they prevent us from doing so. It's important we have them. Until that massive blinder is removed, they will be overjoyed for us to bicker about which news outlet is best, because it means we aren't looking square at them and everything we miss because they never talk about it. We are b…

You want complex conversations? Try listening to Ezra Klein's podcasts, Kara Swisher's podcasts, Lawfare's podcasts, PopeHat's podcasts, and there are many more.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#954
post #548

Do people appreciate that denial of the severity of this virus came from all political quarters? Here's one showing the mistakes of left-leaning media I found in 2 seconds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=36&v=wVDPVBZF2Xg It's just as easy to find supercuts of Pelosi, DeBlasio, and other prominent Democrats telling people that they didn't need to start social distancing or that the virus wasn't airborne c…

It's true, both were wrong.

It's also true that both sides presume the worst intentions when they say the other side was wrong.

I can't get over the fact, however, that only one side was (and still is) in a position to do something about it. Moreover that one side had access to better intelligence about the severity of the situation, and that one side sowed the seeds of their awful response over the past three years with the various cuts they made.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#955
post #936

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Models in general haven't overpredicted warming Yes, they have. We're obviously not going to agree on this point. > It looks like you're arguing that because something is changing over the course of several decades it's not as much as a problem. No, I'm arguing that the problem is not new, and it's not a climate problem. It's a problem of misgovernment and has been around for quite a while. But that doesn't stop ci…

> This is ludicrous. Nobody has the data to back this up, and there is plenty of data contradicting it. The data on this are so clear I don't really know where to start if you don't believe it. I feel your opposition on this issue is ideological, and there's no data that will change your mind. > If we're going to spend trillions of dollars on something, let's at least spend it on something that benefits everybody Giv…

> The data on this are so clear

No, they're not. The data are a mess. Temperature records have been "adjusted" and the original raw data thrown away all over the place. I understand you don't believe this; I'm simply stating what I believe for the record. As I said, we're clearly not going to agree.

> I feel your opposition on this issue is ideological, and there's no data that will change your mind.

I have spent two decades now closely following the global warming/climate change alarmism issue. What I'm basing my statements on here is not ideological opposition to anything: it's the result of two decades of watching a long con in operation. And note carefully that this does not mean that I don't think the climate is changing or that I don't think we will need to do things to deal with climate change. It simply means that I do not trust the people or the institutions that are clamoring about catastrophe if we don't spend trillions of dollars to stop CO2 emissions now. Those people and institutions have no credibility with me after what I've seen them do for the past two decades, and what I've gone back and found out about what they did further back than that.

> Switching from fossil fuels brings huge benefits.

Agreed. But we don't have to spend trillions of dollars on CO2 mitigation to do that. We just have to, you know, switch. Spending money on CO2 mitigation (unless by "CO2 mitigation" you just mean "build more non-CO2 emitting power plants") hinders that, it doesn't help it.

I mostly agree with your points on energy security, decentralization, removing government distortions of the market (I think this is a good idea in every sphere, not just energy), and air pollution. Kudos to you for including small nuclear plants, btw; most people don't. The only caveats I would make are:

Decentralized power from solar or wind won't provide reliable base load power in many places, at least not without a solution to the energy storage problem that currently doesn't exist except for very small loads. You need small nuclear plants. Hydro by itself can't really be decentralized, since there are only a limited number of good locations for it and basically all of them are already developed. (Hydro in the form of pumped storage powered by solar or wind is a different matter; for many small scale needs that might be a viable solution to the energy storage problem.)

Electric transport is great, except for one mode: airplanes. I just don't see a viable alternative to liquid chemical fuels for airplanes any time soon. But that can be dealt with by using other energy sources to make liquid fuels, either by directly powering chemical reactions or by using living organisms like algae.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#956
post #548

Do people appreciate that denial of the severity of this virus came from all political quarters? Here's one showing the mistakes of left-leaning media I found in 2 seconds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=36&v=wVDPVBZF2Xg It's just as easy to find supercuts of Pelosi, DeBlasio, and other prominent Democrats telling people that they didn't need to start social distancing or that the virus wasn't airborne c…

I had this same thought. Here's Pelosi encouraging people to come to Chinatown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFCzoXhNM6c Also, we should be careful about how much we eviscerate people on both sides politically during this time. If our leaders are too afraid of repercussions to make difficult decisions, they may make bad decisions instead. I'm calling for moratorium on partisan finger-pointing. I think we're all in…

Not sure what that has to do with denial of the severity of the virus. Not to mention NYT just published a report confirming that the virus strain in the US mostly came from European sources, instead of Asian ones. Are you equating "avoiding Chinatown" with "preventing the spread of the virus"? That sounds extremely worrisome, to be polite.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#957
post #943
post #548

Do people appreciate that denial of the severity of this virus came from all political quarters? Here's one showing the mistakes of left-leaning media I found in 2 seconds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=36&v=wVDPVBZF2Xg It's just as easy to find supercuts of Pelosi, DeBlasio, and other prominent Democrats telling people that they didn't need to start social distancing or that the virus wasn't airborne c…

Here is a video of horrendous New York situation with "overrun" Queens hospital https://video.fprg2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/l/t42.9040-2/92262469_... Here a similar one from Begamo, Italy https://youtu.be/lcK2mzuO6MU And now, where is the truth? I would like not to be infected. I try to avoid being infected by flu as well. But maybe we really are overreacting. We don't have immune system trained for this - that is problema…

I don't think the point is about an apocalyptic image of people cogging up and dying in the corridors or whatnot. It's the lack of equipments like ventilators. Also it's confirmed from many sources that the medical workers are all stretched to their limits and some of them even died from overexertion. That's probably much more convincing than some random videos.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#958

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must have a reasonably short memory, because people said exactly the same sort of sensational things about Obama, and Bush Jr, and Clinton, and Bush Sr, and Reagan... There’s not really any truth or insight in what you just said. It’s simply an impassioned judgement about a politician you don’t like/disagree with/don’t trust/whatever... The truth is that most politicians are corrupt on some level, most politician…

But DJT lies a lot more than any of his predecessors, and hires a lot more incompetents, and fires a lot more competents, than any of his predecessors.

You must have a reasonably short memory, because people said exactly the same sort of sensational things about Obama, and Bush Jr, and Clinton, and Bush Sr, and Reagan...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#959

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it is, and that's exactly the problem I have with defending any news outlets. None of them have those complex conversations, and they prevent us from doing so. It's important we have them. Until that massive blinder is removed, they will be overjoyed for us to bicker about which news outlet is best, because it means we aren't looking square at them and everything we miss because they never talk about it. We are b…

You want complex conversations? Try listening to Ezra Klein's podcasts, Kara Swisher's podcasts, Lawfare's podcasts, PopeHat's podcasts, and there are many more.

The founder of Vox, the editor of a Vox subsidiary, and two law blogs that have become devoted almost entirely to trying to impeach Trump. That sure is a diverse group of perspectives you’re exposing yourself to. You can be glad you don’t exist in some sort of echo chamber.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#960

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how you refuse to answer anything I'm saying. You're simply proving my point. And you know full well what it is. You don't need any of them. They're all dishonest. We'd be better off having honest conversations with each other rather than tribally organizing behind ANY mainstream media (colloquially called news, but they aren't). And yet the only thing you can focus on is attacking your perceived ene…

The world is a lot more nuanced than your manichean view is making you see.

Perhaps even more nuanced than the comment you made immediately preceding this one.
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