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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

931–940 of 968 posts

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#931

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't appear to have read the things you linked. The argument Ebi is making is that we shouldn't give up if we don't hit that 12 year deadline, because it's continuous, and things keep getting even worse . She's trying to communicate that there are worse things than 1.5C that we could still prevent.

There are worse things than 1.5C that we could still prevent because 1.5C isn't the "end of the world".

If your quibble is with the precise definition of "the end of the world" and not with the rest of the statement then I think we're well outside of what concrete facts can resolve. The impacts of 1.5C are going to be horrific. The fact that the impacts of 2, 3, 5, 5C are more horrific doesn't change that.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#932

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The "both sides bad" mantra is really just lazy. "Fox News is TEH EVILZZ AND CNN/CBS/NBC/MY HOLY LOVE ARE TEH ANGELZZ" is really lazy. Refusing to recognize how the other news outlets aren't bastions of honorable reporting is really lazy. Refusing to recognize that none of them -- any of them, not one -- have the public's (e.g. YOUR) best interest in mind, is really lazy. Somewhere deep down you know that but there…

> "Fox News is TEH EVILZZ AND CNN/CBS/NBC/MY HOLY LOVE ARE TEH ANGELZZ" is really lazy. Now you are being downright dishonest. Nobody said either of these things but it's demonstrably true that Fox News often publishes unverified propaganda while CNN routinely has scientists and solid source surveys to support their points.

It's interesting how you refuse to answer anything I'm saying. You're simply proving my point.

And you know full well what it is. You don't need any of them. They're all dishonest. We'd be better off having honest conversations with each other rather than tribally organizing behind ANY mainstream media (colloquially called news, but they aren't).

And yet the only thing you can focus on is attacking your perceived enemy, ignoring the enemy you choose not to see.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#933

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Fox News is TEH EVILZZ AND CNN/CBS/NBC/MY HOLY LOVE ARE TEH ANGELZZ" is really lazy. Now you are being downright dishonest. Nobody said either of these things but it's demonstrably true that Fox News often publishes unverified propaganda while CNN routinely has scientists and solid source surveys to support their points.

It's interesting how you refuse to answer anything I'm saying. You're simply proving my point. And you know full well what it is. You don't need any of them. They're all dishonest. We'd be better off having honest conversations with each other rather than tribally organizing behind ANY mainstream media (colloquially called news, but they aren't). And yet the only thing you can focus on is attacking your perceived ene…

The world is a lot more nuanced than your manichean view is making you see.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#934

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Science isn’t consensus! Proof isn’t determined by “very nearly 100% of scientists agree”. Just ask Copernicus. We don’t vote on scientific proof. Yes evidence leads us to believe climate change is happening, but why and predicting it’s trajectory and effect should be met with scientific standards not scaremongering and “CLIMATE DENIER” hyperbole. If the pursuit of scientific rigour and fact has taught us anything ov…

You are right. It is decided because not only do almost 100% of climate scientists agree, but there in indisputable proof of the basic method of action (CO2, CH4, H20 greenhouse effects) and we can measure that effect in the lab and then correlated it to measured climate change that normalized for various known climate cycles. The consensus in the fields is driven by the overwhelming evidence of the multidisciplinary…

You just completely prove my point.

First there’s the “almost 100%” of scientists agree argument again. Sorry, that’s not a valid argument for saying something is true!

Second. Models aren’t proof. They’re models. Yes we can measure gas quantities and determine correlations. But we haven’t scientifically proven it. We’re dealing with chaotic systems. Until we can, we need to remain skeptical and open to other ideas. That’s my point. Not that it isn’t happening.

Third. Then you bring politics into it. Oh the 1% are funded by Big Oil. Oh and the 99% aren’t funded by politically motivated players either? See point (1), scientific fact isn’t determined by who agrees with it or not. Until it’s proven, it may be unproven.

And fourth. Flat earth, again, the relationship to climate deniers...you don’t need scientists to agree the world isn’t flat. It’s proven. Scientifically. See the difference?

Thanks for eloquently providing examples to exactly what I was saying

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#935
post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In hindsight, it is obvious that COVID19 was worse than SARS or MERS. But at the time, especially given China's clampdown on information outflow, it didn't appear to be significantly different from SARS, which didn't effect the West much, or MERS, which had almost no impact outside of the Middle East. But as another commenter noted, the timing matters a lot. Everyone except Fox News thought back in January that COVID…

> but based on prior coronaviruses not something that would significantly impact the West. If we talk about a lot of media, they simply had the priority of making Chinese look bad in any possible way, including blaming them for "misinterpreting numbers" and ridiculing them for implementing lockdowns or wearing masks. Which just shows how stupid some global agendas are. Media don't do that in vaccuum, but they are the…

If we talk about a lot of media, they simply had the priority of making Chinese look bad in any possible way, including blaming them for "misinterpreting numbers" and ridiculing them for implementing lockdowns or wearing masks.

Amazing how apparently all of the media around the world was united in a conspiracy to make China look bad, especially when much of the reporting was commenting on how much worse the situation must actually be compared to what was being reported by China, given the severity of China's response.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#936
post #842

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Several studies have demonstrated that it is cheaper to avert climate change than to deal with the effects. Studies based on climate models that are overpredicting warming, plus economic and sociological models that have even less predictive power. > moving coastal cities or engineering mega-projects to combat flooding If your coastal city has a problem with sea level rising a couple of feet, your coastal city has…

> Studies based on climate models that are overpredicting warming Models in general haven't overpredicted warming, as several people in this discussion have tried to educate you. > If your coastal city has a problem with sea level rising a couple of feet, your coastal city has already had a problem for a century or more, and you ignored it. I'm not at all clear what your point is here. It looks like you're arguing th…

> Models in general haven't overpredicted warming

Yes, they have. We're obviously not going to agree on this point.

> It looks like you're arguing that because something is changing over the course of several decades it's not as much as a problem.

No, I'm arguing that the problem is not new, and it's not a climate problem. It's a problem of misgovernment and has been around for quite a while. But that doesn't stop cities and countries to try to get the rest of us to pay for fixing it by trying to claim that it's a cimate problem.

> The climate is changing faster by far than it has in all human history, and probably in the history of our planet.

This is ludicrous. Nobody has the data to back this up, and there is plenty of data contradicting it.

> When you have 7 or 8 billion people living on the planet, largely in huge cities, it's far more challenging.

When the "problem" you're talking about is a degree of so of temperature rise and a foot or two of sea level rise over the course of a century, to call dealing with it "challenging" is an egregious misuse of language. This is simply not that big a deal compared to all the other things we humans have to deal with. And the things we will need to do anyway to deal with those far more challenging problems--like how to bring billions of people out of poverty and how to make our infrastructure more robust--will end up adapting us to the change anyway. If we're going to spend trillions of dollars on something, let's at least spend it on something that benefits everybody regardless of what happens with the climate, instead of on a huge CO2 mitigation boondoggle that will transfer a lot of money from your and my pockets to the pockets of politicians and "green" business executives, but won't actually help much of anything.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#937

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In hindsight, it is obvious that COVID19 was worse than SARS or MERS. But at the time, especially given China's clampdown on information outflow, it didn't appear to be significantly different from SARS, which didn't effect the West much, or MERS, which had almost no impact outside of the Middle East. But as another commenter noted, the timing matters a lot. Everyone except Fox News thought back in January that COVID…

"especially given China's clampdown on information outflow" Come on. By late December, China's response was so drastic (including when measured against all previous coronavirus outbreaks) that the question of "suppressing" information about it was completely moot. The CDC completely dropped the ball on this. Yes, in part because Trump slashed their pandemic response budget, but they did a piss-poor job even for the r…

Your memory is highly selective and simply wrong.

On Dec 31, China informed WHO about a mysterious cluster of respiratory ailments clustered around a seafood market in Wuhan. China didn't even close the seafood restaurant until 2020. The first confirmed death wasn't reported until January 11. China didn't begin a lockdown of Wuhan until January 23.

Yes, the CDC dropped the ball, but evidence coming out in March indicates that China knew about COVID19 in early December and didn't bother to tell the rest of the world about it for another month, and even then downplayed the seriousness of the virus until the end of January.

To this day China is still blocking the release of information about the severity of COVID19. WaPo reported last week that there may have been more than 40,000 COVID19 fatalities in Wuhan alone (based on manually counting the number of urns distributed by morticians) which is at more than 13x the official number of deaths reported for the entire country.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timelin...

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#938

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how you refuse to answer anything I'm saying. You're simply proving my point. And you know full well what it is. You don't need any of them. They're all dishonest. We'd be better off having honest conversations with each other rather than tribally organizing behind ANY mainstream media (colloquially called news, but they aren't). And yet the only thing you can focus on is attacking your perceived ene…

The world is a lot more nuanced than your manichean view is making you see.

Yes it is, and that's exactly the problem I have with defending any news outlets. None of them have those complex conversations, and they prevent us from doing so. It's important we have them. Until that massive blinder is removed, they will be overjoyed for us to bicker about which news outlet is best, because it means we aren't looking square at them and everything we miss because they never talk about it.

We are better than the world they've given us.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#939

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a passive investor, I don't try to make money by playing the market. But yes, in mid-Feb I moved all my investments from growth funds into conservative ones, and avoided a major haircut.

Congratulations, you are smarter than I am and smarter than Wall Street. But my point still stands - if it was obvious to people, the market would have dumped earlier than mid-Feb.

I don't claim to be smarter than anyone, I'm just some guy. I just think the "no-one could have seen this coming" is obviously bogus when it was literally occurring at the time, just in different regions.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#940

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, of course they had reasons. It's not obvious what to do in a disaster. But did people die because of that decision? Probably. Maybe a lot. Tough calls. It comes down to who made those tough calls earlier. And that's not a partisan thing, or a smart/dumb thing. Plenty of bad decisions to go around, but we probably shouldn't lay the blame to thick anywhere. Because it's chaos and people are adapting and changing i…

> Look at someone like Newsom. One minute he's the mayor of SF, the next he's the governor of 40M people “The next minute” is off by something more than 6 orders of magnitude. You kind of skipped over ~4.2 million minutes he spent as Lieutenant Governor between those jobs.

Wow. Time flies when I'm paying attention to other stuff ;-)
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