Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are a lot of retirements on the line just by this fact 1) I would expect anyone close to retirement to have a fairly balanced portfolio. 2) if they don't include SpaceX and the stock does >10x in the next year, they'll end up doing terribly on the benchmarks. SpaceX is big, but if they invest early, it won't be a ridiculous % of the portfolio. Even if one overpays by 2x, since it's under .1% of the total port…
No cfpa would claim #1. At retirement you are not balanced, you are in low risk funds or bonds.
Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
931–940 of 1001 posts
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#932Earlier quoted context omitted.
This kind of doesn't make sense. You don't park "money" "in" crypto. Crypto sits there, with its value set at the last sale price. There's nothing to stop the next sale price taking its value to zero without anything happening to real money other than some of it changing hands. It's not like crypto holders can sell $2.5T of crypto and plough it into equities, for a start some other investor will have to buy it from t…
Explain to me how crashes work then, isn't it when there is an inconsistency on supply vs. demand? It just takes a narrative shift to tumble it - ex: quantum to break crypto security.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#933Earlier quoted context omitted.
This should trigger all of us to be spinning up lawsuits. This whole thing is an absurd grift.
> This should trigger all of us to be spinning up lawsuits On what grounds? What tort have you suffered? If you want change (and who wouldn't?) you need to talk to your representatives, not the courts.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#934Earlier quoted context omitted.
This kind of doesn't make sense. You don't park "money" "in" crypto. Crypto sits there, with its value set at the last sale price. There's nothing to stop the next sale price taking its value to zero without anything happening to real money other than some of it changing hands. It's not like crypto holders can sell $2.5T of crypto and plough it into equities, for a start some other investor will have to buy it from t…
Explain to me how crashes work then, isn't it when there is an inconsistency on supply vs. demand? It just takes a narrative shift to tumble it - ex: quantum to break crypto security.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#935All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?
In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…
Math problems being solved doesn't make necessities easier to afford.
New healthcare discoveries seem moot when only the wealthy get access (Elysium anyone?).
I'm not seeing how a typical person is getting any benefit. The only visible change they are seeing is getting exposed to more elaborate scams.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#936If I buy the SpaceX stock it's 100% certain to go down. If I don't buy it it will rocket to the moon. Is there some sort of way I can positively monetise this?
I think it's actually 100% certain to go up no matter what, at least in the near term. In today's market, it doesn't matter what a company is worth or how much money they make or lose. All that matters is what global attention share they make up. How many people are thinking about them at any given time. Money flows where attention goes.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#937Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…
I just gave you several non-dev examples of how AI is used or has achieved things we could only dream about. Not to mention how Qualia is using it within the Real Estate sector. https://cloud.google.com/customers/qualia
Now there's an honest sector that is sure to use these tools to benefit humanity!
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#938Earlier quoted context omitted.
One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?
> One third of all software code is written by AI. I find it interesting that using lines of code as a metric is making a comeback.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#939Earlier quoted context omitted.
SpaceX financials are a mess outside of the actual SpaceX part. xAI is losing money hand over fist, other random bits in there are doing the same. The valuation makes no sense. It's basically a money transfer from the average person to the poor richest person on the planet. The true Great Filter is mental illness, apparently.
XAI is now printing revenue thanks to the Anthropic compute deal. Moreso than SpaceX itself.
We have 0 proof that selling shovels is a sustainable business strategy since none of the gold prospectors are bold enough to publish GAAP + audited financial numbers.
Right now we have lots of people spending lots of money at the lower layers and none of the end-game companies, the ones selling to actual customers, private or companies, publishing any quarterly or yearly numbers that show that the end-state of current LLMs is profitability.
Keep in mind that Nvidia, Azure, AWS can't really pivot to something else once they can't stop selling shovels. Nvidia goes back to being a $10bn company selling GPUs to gamers and Azure/AWS probably see their earnings drop by a quarter or more if the AI bubble pops. At least shovel sellers during the gold rushes could cash in and invest in land or cattle or something and have long term sustainability.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#940Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…
Dominating most of global oil and gas traffic is indeed very much a point that the US is trying to serve, albeit with arguable success. The same reasoning explains other crazy adventures like Venezuela and Greenland, as well as other more diplomatic endeavors in Panama, Gibraltar and the strait of Malaka.
The notion that the mighty US is going through all this for the sake of another country is bonkers.