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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#921

Post by mhb »

diebeforei485 wrote: post #911
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

The 6 are only those we know of. There could be others, because these cerebral blood clots can happen two weeks after receiving the vaccine. As we analyze the data, and see if more data comes in the next two weeks, we'll have a better sense of the risk.

How many would there need to be in order to justify proceeding to use the vaccine? Proclaiming that there could be others is worthless without quantifying what you're willing to accept. Just saying to wait is a decision that will kill people.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#922

Post by electrondood »

slibhb wrote: post #828
js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

If there is solid evidence that a vaccine will kill people, it should not be used. It's intolerable that people die taking a prophylactic. It's much, much worse to kill someone with a vaccine than to allow that person to perhaps die of a virus. Thankfully, in this case, sanity prevailed.

Unfortunately, your comments exclusively address a hypothetical scenario. Even if there were solid evidence that "a vaccine will kill people," the likelihood of that occurring currently appears to be orders of magnitude less than the likelihood of having the same occur from actually having COVID. [0]

As someone else pointed out here, you're about as statistically likely to die in a car wreck on your way to get the vaccine than you are to have (not die from) a blood clot from it.

[0] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/cardiology/blood-clots...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#923

Post by fastball »

ryankemper wrote: post #842
fastball wrote: post #743

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not really true, as demonstrated by the PDF linked in the GC.

It is true; the PDF linked in the GC has to make a number of assumptions and is very obviously made from a point of bias (which does not invalidate its claims but warrants extra scrutiny). Also it's comparing raw ICU admissions, but there are a number of really nasty adverse reactions that don't throw you in the ICU. The general "second shot syndrome" that something like half of people getting Pfizer/Moderna experien…

Why do you assume that people who are getting second shot syndrome would be the same people who would have asymptomatic COVID-19? That seems... far-fetched at best.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#924

Post by fastball »

elihu wrote: post #807
josephcsible wrote: post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe good public health policy requires that there be restrictions on gatherings even where everyone is fully vaccinated, then what do you see as the path back to full normality? Or is this just how humanity has to live forever now?

I think the "return to normality" is when the number of new cases reported each day drops to almost nothing and deaths are uncommon. Currently, in the U.S. we're about 70 thousand new cases a day, which is about where we were at the height of the second wave in mid-summer. Deaths are around 750 a day. I think we'll get to normality eventually, but it may take longer than anyone has patience for, and that will only pu…

I think return to normalcy should be whenever everyone who wants a vax has received a vax.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#925

Post by electrondood »

captainredbeard wrote: post #224
hn8788 wrote: post #91

So this past year the government has been willing to let unemployment, suicides and drug overdoses jump due to isolation and loneliness caused by lockdowns, child abuse to skyrocket and mental health to plumment due to schools being kept closed, all because we needed to stop covid at any cost. Now one person dies out of almost 7 million who received the vaccine, and we need to stop administering the J&J vaccine "out…

Government over-reactions to COVID19 have been disastrous. There would have been an economic hit for sure but things would have returned to near normal by August 2020 if they had respected freedom (or if people had disobeyed in mass).

Or if they just followed the plan for this exact scenario that was handed to them by the last administration, if we're talking about the US, where more than half a million people died preventable deaths.

I'd argue that the "response" at the Federal level was a massive under-reaction. Months of denial didn't seem to work out so well.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#926

Post by electrondood »

theptip wrote: post #652
kaczordon wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Umm maybe because the blood clot issue is being underreported because no one is looking for it? We’re essentially doing mass experimentation with gene-based vaccines on the US population, all the vaccines use either mRNA or DNA insertion. Caution here is the logical and ethical thing. Also: the side effect profile for the moderna and pfizer vaccines in the clinical trials was far WORSE than the jnj vaccine. Edit: gen…

> Caution here is the logical and ethical thing. In this pandemic, inaction costs lives. The logical and ethical thing to do is evaluate the cost/benefit and choose the path that kills fewer people. You wouldn't say "we should exit the burning house one at a time in case we get hit by a meteor outside, caution here is the logical and ethical thing"; you're making the same kind of logical error, just with a less-absur…

> You wouldn't say "we should exit the burning house one at a time in case we get hit by a meteor outside, caution here is the logical and ethical thing"

I always appreciate an apt analogy.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#927

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #864
SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #844

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we've deal with vaccines for decades I don’t think that’s accurate in this case. The type of vaccine that J&J released had up until months ago only ever been deployed in animals. IIRC pigs had a problem with corona viruses that we solved” The J&J is not a heap of dead virus like the common ones we have had forever. But a live harmless (we think) virus dolled up to look like Rona Corona.

Live harmless vaccines aren't anything new. Some of the TB vaccines from the 60s are of that variety. Live virus vaccines have safely been used for at least the past 5 decades. Stop spreading bullshit.

Ok. Well, perhaps you aren’t actually aware of what the J&J is. I enjoyed the part about spreading bullshit though, good one.

No, there have been no previous live viruses that have been genetically modified to look like other viruses (embedding Covid spike proteins) injected in humans before three months ago in any scale.

We have treated animals with exactly this however, including pigs against piggy rona.

I recommend reading the whole post next time, not just stopping at “live virus”.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#928

Post by mywittyname »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #901
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #836

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ideal strategy without hindsight was conventional wisdom: Protect the vulnerable and stiff upper lip for the rest. China, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand used strict lockdowns to eliminate community spread, and then largely opened things up again. People in those countries have been able to live much more normal lives than people elsewhere during the pandemic. With hindsight, that was clearly the correct str…

2/4 of those examples are affluent island nations with low population densities. Another one of those examples has been actively censoring covid information from the start, and thus cannot be trusted. As for Vietnam, it is an interesting case, and we don't have enough data to rule out cross reactivity or other factors playing a role. Extrapolating these data points to the entire world with wildly varying sociological…

> As for Vietnam, it is an interesting case, and we don't have enough data to rule out cross reactivity or other factors playing a role.

They took shit seriously and everyone prepared the minute news reached them of a possible pandemic. A good friend of mine is from VN and he was shipping PPE back home to his parents around August or October of 2019.

I think most Americans don't realize how common pandemics have been in east Asia. To them, it's like preparing for any other natural disaster. It's like comparing the Michiganders response to a blizzard to that of Texans.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#929

Post by electrondood »

Interesting to find out if this is again correlated to blood type. Type O has a lower risk of clots from COVID in general, thought to be related to the amount of von Willebrand factor in the blood:

"...since the ACE2 receptor belongs to the renin-angiotensin system (it regulates blood pressure), the virus cannot but affect the blood vessels. Apparently, it is capable of causing local inflammation of the walls of blood vessels and capillaries. This results in an increased release of VWF into the blood, which, in turn, provokes clotting." [0]

[0] https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200706/COVID-19-complica...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#930

Post by electrondood »

coding123 wrote: post #501
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

By not stopping it will forever by 7 out of 7 million. By stopping they can at least find out if it's 5000 out of 7 million (and more deaths).

7 people got sick, not died.
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