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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#911

Post by prepend »

delfinom wrote: post #285
irjustin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

>And this is the more important part. As long as you're But why? The US population is set to dramatically shrink in the next 30 years. Where does all the money come from?

The US population is projected to 385M in 2055. [0] What makes you think the population will dramatically shrink?

Even if it did, the money would come from global investors who find the US more attractive than their home markets.

[0] https://database.earth/population/by-country/2055

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#912

Post by prepend »

bdangubic wrote: post #65
irjustin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

no one is going to get wealthy buying SPY/VOO. you might get rich, but not wealthy. things have changed now in a sense that handful of companies are large percentage of the stock market to the point where one has to question why invest in “s&p 500” vs “s&p 25-ish” while going with the tried&true makes some sense, I think we have to open our eyes to a different reality of our stock market… and this market concentratio…

> you might get rich, but not wealthy

What do you mean by this? It seems pretty likely to be wealthy by investing in these indices. Certainly a “normal” worker who started investing $10k/year in SPY when it started in 1993 has enough wealth to allow them to retire now.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#913

Post by kridsdale1 »

sharts wrote: post #858
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

Do those help starving or homeless people? I don’t think so.

Those people are not in the economy.

And they can get their diseases cured by an AI discovered fix, via medicare.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#914

Post by tomhow »

taurath wrote: post #837
tomhow wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several guidelines make it clear that this kind of comment is unwelcome here. Corruption and conspiracies are easy to insinuate, but we need more than insinuations to have intellectually gratifying discussions. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48364986 and marked it off topic.

It’s often telling what sort of thing is deserving of moderation. The timing is well documented as being extremely favorable to Musk and Altman and indeed directly benefits them. Suspicion is not only warranted it should be demanded.

We moderate whenever we see guidelines-breaking comments, no matter the topic. Anyone can see that from looking at our comments feeds. What happens to powerful figures in tech or politics makes no difference to my job or life. But this site only exists and can only continue to exist if the discussions are of high quality. Evidence-free insinuations of corruption are a hallmark of low quality discussion any day of the week.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#915

Post by matwood »

watwut wrote: post #529
matwood wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You shouldn't be downvoted because your point is completely valid. Matt Levine made the same point in the last Money Stuff podcast. These indexes are supposed to contain the largest, most significant, and in some cases all companies so people shouldn't be mad at the indexes for pulling in a company that's going to have a 1.5T market cap at IPO. Given the market cap, it would actually be weird to not have it in an ind…

The whole point of original rule was to have market discover price over time before adding a company. It is absurd to blame "market" that did not had enough time to settle. "Bankers" are to blame for making this rules change happen. It is entirely valit to blame people who changed the rules to allow this to happen.

> The whole point of original rule was to have market discover price over time before adding a company.

IPOs and indexes were not really built to handle companies that stay private as long as we are now seeing. SpaceX is trading at crazy levels in the private market right now. Even if it prices down to something ~1T, it would be silly for an index that is a total market or the biggest 500 companies to ignore it. With that said, it'll be float weighted and have about as much impact on the s&p 500 as something like DoorDash.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#916

Post by margalabargala »

d_burfoot wrote: post #714
alex_young wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. Treasury publishes a daily total of the national debt, which as of May 2026 was $39 trillion. a little less than half of the total national debt is owed to the "Federal Reserve and intragovernmental holdings" In December 2020, foreigners held 33% ($7 trillion out of $21.6 trillion) of publicly held U.S. debt [~] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St...

39T is just the outstanding value of all the Treasury instruments (T-bills, etc). The entitlement programs (SSA and Medicare) have made commitments to certain levels of service and payments that are far in excess of the revenues they bring in, that's what is meant by "unfunded liabilities".

That's not debt, though. Congress can just declare SS/Medicare null and void, or change the amounts, etc. They can't do that with actual Treasury debt.

If you signed up for some expensive monthly subscription, you don't need to do the math about how much it would cost if you keep paying it every month until you die 60 years from now and then freak out about how big that number is. You can just...cancel the subscription.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#917

Post by nitwit005 »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> The valuations of these companies are probably on the high side and I'd expect post IPO share values to drop quite a bit and would not personally consider buying anything until after that happens

You criticized the doom and gloom, but when it comes to your actual money, you're embracing pessimism here.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#918

Post by 8note »

rjh29 wrote: post #746
cj wrote: post #729

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market And why do people want to buy the entire market in the first place? They want to diversify and insulate themselves from a single company crashing their portfolio value. What are people afraid of right now? They're afraid of a single company crashing their portfolio value. Why are people afraid of their portfolio value crashing? Because the…

The problem is people equating S&P 500 with "set and forget" investment when that's never what it was. It's an index. You're not paying anyone to balance it with a particular risk profile. There are indexes that invest equal amounts of money into all companies, so Nvidia doesn't dominate. Or you can pick low growth high dividend indexes to insulate against AI. Or just grab Vanguard LifeStrategy if you don't want to t…

well, i had that, and now they're making me think, when they could instead keep it the way it was

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#919

Post by riffraff »

killbot5000 wrote: post #604
Npovview wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We Uncovered a Hidden Wealth Transfer in the SpaceX IPO. You're Holding the Bag. https://youtu.be/sYA-z0Y8WRQ There is video explaining the process

I’ve always suspected the “index funds are the safest investment” system is ripe for exploitation.

if you're invested in a broadly diversified index you can be annoyed by this thing, but it won't impact you a lot.

E.g. if you owned something based on MSCI ACWI, which is free float weighted and global, SpaceX will end up being less than 1% of your portfolio even at a trillion dollar valuation.

It's just NASDAQ which is complicit in this scam by overweighting SpaceX.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#920

Post by rtkwe »

killbot5000 wrote: post #604
Npovview wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We Uncovered a Hidden Wealth Transfer in the SpaceX IPO. You're Holding the Bag. https://youtu.be/sYA-z0Y8WRQ There is video explaining the process

I’ve always suspected the “index funds are the safest investment” system is ripe for exploitation.

It was much safer before the indexes decided to throw off all the safety hurdles designed to make sure stocks were relatively healthy and the price was reasonably well settled before they were included. And the core idea that a random investor probably can't reliably pick stocks that will out perform the broad indexes is probably going to remain true, even at the high evaluation SpaceX is a relatively small piece of the total index, it's just disasterous for public trust to see the safe guards thrown down like this imo.
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