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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#711

Post by threetonesun »

thepasch wrote: post #497
threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

From experience, whenever someone asks in that particular tone and is actually provided with examples, they proceed to bend over backwards to "prove" that it's secretly not much of an improvement at all/AI psychosis/a mirage/actually harmful / .

I asked - I don't have an opinion either way. I use LLMs, I just don't find them life changing, but I would never deny that in a world with infinite data something that can do a pretty good first pass at parsing and summarizing and organizing it with little effort on the creation end is a good thing.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#712

Post by WarmWash »

hliyan wrote: post #471
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

All the big banking players are in on this IPO

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup

They all know how idiotic Tesla investors are, and they all want those idiots to pick up their bags.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#713

Post by randomperson321 »

pryce wrote: post #355
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Have you contacted your government representatives yet? I will be doing so. The federal government can probably stop this but we need to act now.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#714

Post by d_burfoot »

alex_young wrote: post #94
d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

The U.S. Treasury publishes a daily total of the national debt, which as of May 2026 was $39 trillion. a little less than half of the total national debt is owed to the "Federal Reserve and intragovernmental holdings" In December 2020, foreigners held 33% ($7 trillion out of $21.6 trillion) of publicly held U.S. debt [~] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_St...

39T is just the outstanding value of all the Treasury instruments (T-bills, etc). The entitlement programs (SSA and Medicare) have made commitments to certain levels of service and payments that are far in excess of the revenues they bring in, that's what is meant by "unfunded liabilities".

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#715

Post by bluGill »

tshaddox wrote: post #398
bradleybuda wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

That ignores the actual issue here, which is the change in rules. Index funds already seek to own the entire market, and when most people chose these index funds there were rules about when newly listed stocks get purchased by the funds. And now those rules are being changed.

Index funds generally try to match the performance of the index, but most are not required to hold the same companies as the index itself does. They typically do, but managers often have choices.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#716

Post by sigmoid10 »

gitfan86 wrote: post #704
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This fundamentally misunderstand the point of an index. The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market ( the top 500 companies make up most of the entire market ). That is it. Period. They are not saying these 500 companies are going to be the most successful in 6 months or 10 years. At one point Enron was 0.6% of S&P500 because it was a large company, not because the directors at S&P500…

This disregards the fundamental reason why people buy index funds in the first place. Rules for consistent GAAP profitability and cooldown periods specifically prevent retail investors from being exposed to particular malicious stock market tactics and overall risks that otherwise could significantly hurt them in the short term. So it's more like saying "you don't like extra risk? too bad."

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#717

Post by jkarni »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now.

Is that true? It seemed to me that the most common opinion before the recent Chinese real estate crash was that it was a bubble; architect friends of mine who worked in China said the government had no doubt prices were unreasonably high; the thing they remained hopeful about is whether a soft landing was possible. Similarly it seems like it was by no means an uncommon opinion in the Japanese asset bubble, NFTs, beanie babies, and even the dotcom boom that this is (to use Greenspan’s phrase leading up to the dotcom bubble) “irrational exuberance”.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#718

Post by WarmWash »

philipallstar wrote: post #508
oblio wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX financials are a mess outside of the actual SpaceX part. xAI is losing money hand over fist, other random bits in there are doing the same. The valuation makes no sense. It's basically a money transfer from the average person to the poor richest person on the planet. The true Great Filter is mental illness, apparently.

> xAI is losing money hand over fist I wonder how much better Anthropic is doing.

I think there are around 7 people who pay for a grok subscription.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#719

Post by webdood90 »

gitfan86 wrote: post #704
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This fundamentally misunderstand the point of an index. The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market ( the top 500 companies make up most of the entire market ). That is it. Period. They are not saying these 500 companies are going to be the most successful in 6 months or 10 years. At one point Enron was 0.6% of S&P500 because it was a large company, not because the directors at S&P500…

Why would you accept this? Who does this serve?

I want to believe the world is full of good people but I read stuff like this and realize otherwise.

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