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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#911
post #744

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

Not convinced it will happen. What would prevent Saudi Arabia from retaliating and introducing a special fee on all ships coming from Iran. It's not like intercepting those massive cargo ships in a small sea is of any difficulty for a well funded military.

Isn't it already happening ?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#912

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

[dead]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#913
post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

$2M/ship is $100B/year at pre-war crossing rates.

Soon the dubai influencers will flock to Teheran.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#914

The ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hou…

The ceasefire was never between Israel and Iran, Israel did not stopped bombing even after first announcement.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#915

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

It's a messy situation but it basically kicked off when the Iranian people had mass protests and the government started shooting them whereupon Trump tweeted “Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! … help is on its way" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/13/trump-promises...

Not much about gas getting expensive there. I think the recent threats were mostly hyperbole for negotiating purposes.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#916

The ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hou…

Maybe. I'll wait for confirmation from sources outside of the usual "fast news" channels like X, which are full of disinformation.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#917
post #914

The ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hou…

The ceasefire was never between Israel and Iran, Israel did not stopped bombing even after first announcement.

Nope, Israel did stop its strikes on Iran. However, they did not stop bombing Lebanon.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-iran-truce-opp...

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#918

Let me articulate the thing which I believe is on many people's minds: What is the chance the president will order a nuclear strike on Iran as this war proceeds? We would hope the odds are vanishingly small, because doing so would be profoundly disadvantageous. But the same was true for initiating this war in the first place. The logic -- such as it is -- of some people in power may lead them to conclude once more th…

No chance. A nuclear strike on Iran won't achieve anything that a large number of conventional strikes would.

My real question is not whether it would achieve anything meaningful, but what would be the side effects of such a strike on allies in the region.

I don't have a remotely decent mental model of fallout etc from modern nuclear weapons - my assumptions are they're still toxic enough to be a bloody terrible idea anywhere near someone you like.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#919
post #914

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ceasefire was never between Israel and Iran, Israel did not stopped bombing even after first announcement.

Nope, Israel did stop its strikes on Iran. However, they did not stop bombing Lebanon. https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-iran-truce-opp...

The poor people in Lebanon, seems Israel is targeting everything from funerals to medics.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#920

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

Aljazeera is sharing roughly the same list
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