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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#911
You want to massively decrease the deathrate of COVID? (and death rates in general)

Deal with the 40% obesity rate in the US.

Death rates are extremely low if you're not geriatric or not fat. All the top killers are attributable to being fat and living unhealthy lifestyles. COVID is the scapegoat here.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#913
post #820
post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that clear that a lockdown helps. NY closed the earliest in the US but was the hardest hit nevertheless. It has now mostly reopened and cases aren't going up. Chances are we may have reached herd immunity there. I have seen recently that serology tests in Italy have shown the same outcome for people who were locked down than essential workers who were not locked down (and mortality stats in the UK told a sim…

> It's not that clear that a lockdown helps Thank you ! I am all for the lockdown. I am all for wearing masks. Contact tracing is great and d=should be done more rigorously. I am all for proven methods working well for a disease that is both more and less well-understood than we think. However, amidst genuinely useful health policy, we also have a seriously large amount of security theater. As of this moment, any sta…

> As of this moment, any stance outside "covid is the next coming of the black death" is met with a lot of pushback.

Probably because anything less and everyone thinks they're special enough that special health measures don't apply to them.

Not that I'm ordinarily in favor of dramatizing things, but I'm at a loss about how to handle the lot of regular people that I know personally, who aren't capable of nuance and instead will use any excuse to justify ignoring lockdown & social distancing measures. The pictures coming from Italy in March scared the shit out of everyone, but now that we don't see trucks full of bodies in the news on a regular basis, this significant fraction of the population is back to ignoring all safety measures and whining about "covid craze".

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#914
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US didn't have a federal strategy to deal with the pandemic. They shot at their own foot and didn't give themselves a chance to be successful. The rest of the (developed, and many underdeveloped) world dealt with it and are moving on. I'm watching Champions league finals on TV and Wuhan pool party clips on twitter, thinking wtf went wrong here.

> The rest of the (developed, and many underdeveloped) world dealt with it and are moving on. I'm not really sure on that, lets take greece, which was praised for their strategy (I was in greece during the lockdown). They didnt have a strategy, they just locked down before there was an outbreak and blocked flights, so no spread. Now they have an outbreak because they stopped all there restrictions. They were just luc…

I don’t understand how Sweden could be a good example to follow: they now are at 573 deaths per million, close to Italy 585. (France is 466, Germany 110, Norway 48, all flat. US 585 and rising fast)

If you look at Belgium 859 deaths per millions, Sweden (and the US) could go much higher without any preventive action (I believe Sweden is now acting more in line with other countries?).

(Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-mi... )

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#915

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

To preface, I disagree on the pandemic damage vs lockdowns damage (other than the economy, projected increase in deaths from heart disease, cancer, increase in suicides and domestic violence and (in the developing world) starvation, malaria, tuberculosis, reported by UN and WHO).

I also estimate the risks of COVID to be 10-20x of flu (and I had a relative who died from flu complications - maths is still maths), so I take 20x the precautions compared to what I do for flu in a year when I forget to get the shot... 20x of almost nothing is just a little more than nothing.

But that has been discussed above, with much better words and numbers.

I only have one unique contribution. A little bonus that made me happy to go outside to closed outdoor areas during stay-home orders, visit (willing) friends at the height of the lockdown, and hit the gyms and restaurants as soon as they opened with work-to-rule mask wearing and distancing, is that it makes unjustifiably sanctimonious people angry.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#916

You want to massively decrease the deathrate of COVID? (and death rates in general) Deal with the 40% obesity rate in the US. Death rates are extremely low if you're not geriatric or not fat. All the top killers are attributable to being fat and living unhealthy lifestyles. COVID is the scapegoat here.

Old age isn’t attributable to living unhealthy lifestyles, so I consider COVID a threat in its own right and not just a scapegoat. But I agree with your broader point that fighting obesity, smoking, and other health risks should also be priorities even though COVID has greater mindshare at the moment.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#917
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The rest of the (developed, and many underdeveloped) world dealt with it and are moving on. I'm not really sure on that, lets take greece, which was praised for their strategy (I was in greece during the lockdown). They didnt have a strategy, they just locked down before there was an outbreak and blocked flights, so no spread. Now they have an outbreak because they stopped all there restrictions. They were just luc…

I don’t understand how Sweden could be a good example to follow: they now are at 573 deaths per million, close to Italy 585. (France is 466, Germany 110, Norway 48, all flat. US 585 and rising fast) If you look at Belgium 859 deaths per millions, Sweden (and the US) could go much higher without any preventive action (I believe Sweden is now acting more in line with other countries?). (Source: https://ourworldindata.o…

Belgium is counting every suspected case as a Covid case.

So the numbers are bigger, on purpose.

Source: I'm from belgium

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#918
post #26
post #6

I don't get it. Unless you're training for a very specific purpose (like an MMA fight or football season), why do you need specific indoor gym equipment? Shelter in place orders are largely lifted, so you can workout outside: run, do pull ups on a tree branch, ride a bike, lift a heavy stone, do an outdoor yoga class, etc. Hell, you only need maybe a 6' x 6' area for a perfectly effective body weight routine, even in…

Two points stand out to me. It can be very hard to keep the same high quality of workouts without going to a specific facility and training with the guidance and motivation from peers. Not to be rude, your suggestions sound like ideas from someone who doesn't really work out much. Pull up on a tree branch? Lift a heavy stone? Everyone's risk profile is different. I work in statistics and data, so I certainly have a d…

It sort of reminded me of Rocky 4.

“Can’t go to the high tech gym? Just strap a fallen tree to your torso and drag it up a mountain!”

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#920
Choose your own adventure

1. Go to the gym during a pandemic

2.a. Your lungs are permanently damaged, with lower lung capacity for life. Your life expectancy is shortened.

2.b. You are dead.

2.c. You did not develop symptoms.

3. You passed on the disease to many people, including your friends and family.

4. Everything you wanted to achieve by going to the gym turned out wrong and everyone now thinks you are/were a selfish jerk.

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