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> The news is full of stories of corporations that are throttling the employee use of AI since the costs to use the software are a lot higher than expected
is not something I've seen. News is not "full of stories" of this behaviour. There are a few anecdotal stories here and there.
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I think there's a few things going on and I also believe that in many (if not most, and dare I say ALL) cases AI as an excuse for lay offs is simply a scapegoat. If AI is so great, why aren't you re-training those who are ineffective at using it, and then cutting those who still don't make the cut? If it's this amazing thing for your company, wouldn't it drive revenue up drastically? I wish the SEC would start auditi…
This is a good example. If AI increases productivity so much, then having more employees would be beneficial, because each can produce even more output. So the firm would only be limited by the imagination of their product managers and marketing team finding new things to produce with this vast capability. And yet...
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> what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash Junior programmers will be in demand again. Someone will have to fix the mountains of vibe coded technical debt.
I'm not sure that you're going to fix that with juniors...
When it comes to the AI crash honestly my biggest concern is what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash. Not sure how things are in the rest of the world, but as someone in their early 30s working in the IT industry in Sweden I’ve never seen the market this competitive before, even for mid level and senior roles, and it worries me what the future of employment is going to look…
We already have disruptions in Software engineering, image generation, video generation, etc.
Humans might not like AI, Companies do and with Claude we are no longer sitting on the right side, if a Product manager tells a Boss that the PM now can do also code, the boss will listen.
But we will see other effects in the next 5-15 years: population pyramid is crashing which will increase demand for people. We already have high demand for other jobs.
so i can see a transition for a lot of white collar workers to blue collar workers which will continue the disruption for everyone.
Then the robots come along and AI integration is done and we will have a real issue on our hand. When will this come? No clue i don't think its unrealistic to expeirernece this in my lifetime.
It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for that eventuality before things are allowed to blow. It’s been a dramatic shift these last six months but everywhere I look now folks are quietly preparing their battle armor to su…
How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?
It’s likely to be bumpy for all but stay the course with diversified strategy. The .com bust and 2008 are just blips and cheap buying opportunities for most folks with diversified portfolios and index funds. We’ll likely see similar messy markets for a while but the world will eventually recover and move on.
The ones that get truly wiped out are those with a lot of paper wealth now that implodes, but have little liquid wealth. These types go from “super rich” to can’t pay their bills almost overnight. Cash is king for times like those ahead so if you don’t have a lot of cash on hand, now is the time to secure that if you can.
> Circular Revenues: A small handful of tech firms, chip manufacturers, and AI companies are propping each other up by investing and buying from each other. > Increasing Corporate Skepticism: The news is full of stories of corporations that are throttling the employee use of AI since the costs to use the software are a lot higher than expected. Real AI spend is out of control, with the news is full of stories about c…
It’s not the same people doing both.
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what exactly is this finish line? AGI?
Yes. Investors for sure don't care about people. Replace Accenture with OpenAI and you replace 800k people immediadly. Geoffrey Hinton said it in his Videos: a normal person costs A LOT of money to train, educate, onboard, keep etc. they forget things etc. AGI you train once, teach once then clone and copy and just run it. We even might already crossed the line were it is already more cost efective to train 1-5 front…
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That's what they'll sell you. But fundamentally current LLM implementations seem to be the wrong methodology for 'AGI' and I don't think we're remotely close to having this.
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AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.
what exactly is this finish line? AGI?
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One of the strong arguments in favor of AI accelerationism is net pain reduction by making the transition period as short as possible. Ideas like “pacing” or a crash and reboot will prolong the inevitable.
That is an absurd position to take. Nobody benefits by having less time to adapt to changes in their employability I am not calling you out personally here, but this comment bears many hallmarks of the "accelerationist disease": thinking in abstract models rather than in concrete terms; optimising for the fangs of capital rather than human beings, imaginary infinite bets that lead participants to nonsensical conclusi…
You are in denial. If you don’t like this the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time.