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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#91

Post by traderj0e »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #84
traderj0e wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. But also a lot of those stats thrown around are misleading.

If the average no costs less than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that the nothing-ever-happens strategy here is profitable. Are you claiming that it is profitable? Or are one of those premises incorrect? Edit: conversely, if the average no costs _more_ than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that an everything-always-happens strategy is p…

From what I've seen and tested, it's been profitable, for the reason you said. Variance and other caveats caused me to not pursue it further. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754918

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#92

Post by [deleted] »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #51
baq wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One loss sets you back 10-20 wins. didn't look at the numbers, but this one sentence reminds me of selling options for 'passive income' (don't do that)

Quintessential hustler logic: inability to compare the gains from wins to inevitable losses.

[deleted]

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#93

Post by kristopolous »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #74
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.

Why would outcomes match perceptions?

The whole premise of gambling is that they don't

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#94

Post by traderj0e »

raincole wrote: post #56
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I wonder what it means exactly. Typical Polymarket looks like this: X happens before May. [Yes][No] X happens before June. [Yes][No] X happens before July. [Yes][No] ... So even if X ended up happens in December, it's still 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No?

That's one event containing three markets, each yes/no. And in a way each market is two separate markets, buy/sell yes and buy/sell no, but they mirror each other.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#95

Post by bredren »

suzzer99 wrote: post #31
wormpilled wrote: post #4

Basically arbitraging human imagination. People love coming up with fantastical concepts because they get attention, but the more exciting a market is, the less likely it is to actually happen. Reality is usually boring.

My general observation is that people tend to underestimate the likelihood of black swan events (covid, financial crisis) even as it's pretty obvious they're happening. And then when they do accept it, they react too far the other way and assume it's never going to end. I've had success playing the markets in these specific cases. I did fritter away a lot of my gains from the financial crisis thinking I was a genius…

They underestimate the likelihood of black swan because it is very hard for adults to concretely imagine things that have not happened before and then even temporarily fully believe ~"dreams will come true."

One of my go-tos on this is the Fukushima nuclear accident. IIUC there were plenty of folks in Japan who knew of the high risk. Perhaps many interested in nuclear energy outside of Japan, too.

But the average adult if asked about the prospect of a major nuclear incident occurring say, "tomorrow," would narrow their eyes in skepticism. There's almost an instinctual level seeding of doubt.

This can be a good thing. LK-99 was an excellent test of the dissonance from dramatic changes in reality and costs of inaccuracy.

The greatest VCs I have known are exceptional at suspending disbelief to test their ability to basically shape world building.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#96

Post by craftkiller »

tekno45 wrote: post #83
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

its funny, tells you it barely works, and its a good meme. Successful project imo.

In addition, it serves as a good template for writing your own polymarket bot with whatever logic you want.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#97

Post by lordnacho »

hoerzu wrote: post #28
m-hodges wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author also noted: > yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436

For this question I'm working on https://polygains.com What other question would you like to be backtested? This one is fairly easy

For every bucket of probability, what is the chance it resolves correctly?

For example, for markets that are between 60 and 70, is it the case that around 65% of them resolve to yes?

I guess you want to take a certain time before out finishes, so focus on sports.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#98

Post by xboxnolifes »

withinrafael wrote: post #77

Very confusing. Polymarket doesn't allow US use/users. How are folks in the US participating on Polymarket? (VPNs and the like reportedly don't help either due to KYC policies.)

Idk if there is new KYC I dont know about, but you just needed a VPN.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#100

Post by gruez »

fer wrote: post #90
gruez wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Sure, you might try to filter that out with some sort of "seasoning" period (ie. don't buy new markets), but then that means more time for arbitrageurs to correctly price the market, depriving you of any price advantage you might have had.

There are quite a few of those, my favourite: https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before... If you put all your money on no, you get 4% if you win, and if Jesus comes back and you lose, money won't matter.

>you get 4% if you win,

This locks up your money in the meantime, right? If so, considering the fed funds rate is 3.64% (and you can probably get higher rates on stablecoins), a huge chunk of those "winnings" is going to be eaten up by the opportunity cost of the money.

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