Earlier quoted context omitted.
Without me trying to be snarky why do you feel spreadsheet software launching is comparable to this scenario?
VisiCalc was the killer app.
Ah got it. I wasn’t drawing that connection. Thanks
The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
91–100 of 208 posts
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#92What they really should focus on is making those models more efficient. With them most likely losing money on inference (+model training + salaries + building data centers), I can't see why they would want more compute and more products, since more tokens spent is actually bad for them.
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
Anthropic does look healthier, with their enterprise focus. Or am I missing something?
Holy f'n Hell, there's such a blatant bias on HackerNews in favor of Anthropic and against OpenAI. I'm just a user, and in my experience Claude has been consistently crap compared to ChatGPT/Codex. I use both side-by-side, and have paid for a ChatGPT subscription every month for around 1 year, but only 2 months for Claude; once last year, and again since last month. Everything from the sign up, the sign in, the payme…
I’ve been a paid subscriber for all three players since day 1. CC (Opus) has been a clear winner for agentic coding starting about 6 months ago. GPT5.4 reduced the gap somewhat but the gap is still there.
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#94What they really should focus on is making those models more efficient. With them most likely losing money on inference (+model training + salaries + building data centers), I can't see why they would want more compute and more products, since more tokens spent is actually bad for them.
Making existing models more efficient won't make them God in a Box.
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
And not normal for a company that has been at it this long. The Apple II went on sale on June 10th, 1977. Visicalc went on sale October 17th, 1979- 860 days separate the two. ChatGPT was opened to the public on November 30th, 2022, which was 1219 days ago- almost 50% more time has elapsed than between the Apple II and Visicalc.
Without me trying to be snarky why do you feel spreadsheet software launching is comparable to this scenario?
Visicalc is often described as the killer app of the first generation Personal Computer(1). It was the product that drove them into every small business in the country, that blew up sales of personal computers and brought them out of the realm of hobbyists into enterprise. And, honestly, I think Visicalc and spreadsheets are still a greater benefit than what I've seen out of generative AI today. And that happened a lot faster than where we are today with generative AI. Apple had enormous actual profits by 1980 (Apple IPO'd in 1980 with a 21% operating margin). So I think that a lot of the "just got to give it more time" argument misses that the previous computer based revolutions that we know about productized and threw off gobs of cash a heck of a lot faster than this one has.
If the end result of this is "certain classes of white collar workers are 10-25% more productive" (which is the best results I can extrapolate from what I've seen so far) then it's really hard to imagine how OpenAI can return a profit to their investors.
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc#Killer_app is pretty much the normal narrative on Visicalc and its importance to the Personal Computer.
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). This seems like ... not the situation we are in. LLMs are great for coding now but their text generation capabilities aren't exactly capturing the masses or replacing their jobs yet. People are already tired of the deluge of fake content on the inter…
LLM usage will largely replace traditional search, and that's stage one. To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. Search will more be a feature of Gemin…
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Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
> To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. We already have the tech for that, why hasn't it happened? People are revolted by the AI results in Google. A…
I find searching chatgpt.com and asking for sources, then visiting them, works much better than Google to find niche topics
Every year I ask the latest version of Chat GPT a basic facts question about rugby results. It almost always gets it wrong - even when it does web search and cites sources. Wrong scores, hallucinated matches, wrong locations - just gob smacking amounts of wrongness.
The latest "Thinking" version gets it reliably right but spent about 3 minutes coming up with the answer that 10 seconds of googling answers.
So I don't believe we are currently in a situation where LLMs are an effective replacement for search engines.
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#98> GPT-4o Why is this on the list? Like... what? How about including GPT 3.5 and GPT 2 here too?
It's Forbes, lads.
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#99This is important context in the wake of yesterday’s “raise” announcement. A lot of this stuff seems to just quietly never happen once the ink on the PR puff dries. The AI industry increasingly looks in scramble mode to keep the hype going as those storm clouds of financial and business reality get darker and darker on the horizon.
For a company bringing a new technology from zero to mainstream, I think it's pretty normal that there will be a lot of failed attempts at productization. The thing that isn't normal is the degree of experimentation relative to company valuation. Normally once a company reaches $700 B+ valuation, they've figured out their product and monetization strategy. ChatGPT is clearly still iterating heavily on that - not norm…
Which is a good thing. Elon has showed the world, the only thing that limits the upper bound is bureaucracy, extreme risk-averse and no culture for experimenting.
More and more companies will start operating on the correct reward/risk curve or else getting crushed by firms who do. OpenAI has forced Google, Apple, Meta out of their comfort zone because they know OpenAI will eat their lunch
Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
And not normal for a company that has been at it this long. The Apple II went on sale on June 10th, 1977. Visicalc went on sale October 17th, 1979- 860 days separate the two. ChatGPT was opened to the public on November 30th, 2022, which was 1219 days ago- almost 50% more time has elapsed than between the Apple II and Visicalc.
Without me trying to be snarky why do you feel spreadsheet software launching is comparable to this scenario?
I took it the other way, spreadsheets shook up the world way more than AI has (to date) - it's possible that history will look back and count AI as the bigger "thing" but if I had to pick a killer app, VisiCalc and computer spreadsheets in general would beat ChatGPT.