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The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

forbes.com

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Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#81

Post by eisa01 »

operatingthetan wrote: post #31
adventured wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLM usage will largely replace traditional search, and that's stage one. To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. Search will more be a feature of Gemin…

> To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. We already have the tech for that, why hasn't it happened? People are revolted by the AI results in Google. A…

I find searching chatgpt.com and asking for sources, then visiting them, works much better than Google to find niche topics

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#82

Post by beachy »

mandevil wrote: post #67
cj wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a company bringing a new technology from zero to mainstream, I think it's pretty normal that there will be a lot of failed attempts at productization. The thing that isn't normal is the degree of experimentation relative to company valuation. Normally once a company reaches $700 B+ valuation, they've figured out their product and monetization strategy. ChatGPT is clearly still iterating heavily on that - not norm…

And not normal for a company that has been at it this long. The Apple II went on sale on June 10th, 1977. Visicalc went on sale October 17th, 1979- 860 days separate the two. ChatGPT was opened to the public on November 30th, 2022, which was 1219 days ago- almost 50% more time has elapsed than between the Apple II and Visicalc.

The Apple II was so simple (by today's standards) that it came with a complete printed circuit diagram. Visicalc was so simple it was written by two guys in a year.

AI is so many orders of magnitude more complex that the comparison is not really useful.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#83

Post by delecti »

rchaud wrote: post #79
adventured wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The LLM usage will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in ad revenue, which will be wildly lucrative in terms of margins (not as good as Google search used to be). If GPT is a leader in that, they'll take a sizable share of that pot. There's a lot more money in being Google -> consumer ads, or Amazon -> consumer ads, or Meta -> consumer ads, than there is in being Anthropic -> enterprise. Just take a look at the…

Google launched in 1998 and were running ads by 2000. Considering how much more access to adtech product talent there is for OAI a quarter of a century on, what explains their hesitation to pick that route and make billions? After all they had billions avaiable to acquire designer bauble maker Jony Ive's company.

The first AI company to cram their product full of ads will get roasted over the coals for it. My guess is they're all playing chicken and waiting to be the second to do it. I'd also guess that they're all already thinking about ways to introduce it that will generate the least backlash.

Google could do it in 2000 because their search was legitimately so much better, and also because their ads were comparatively more relevant and unobtrusive than modern ads. In comparison, LLMs are relatively similar in performance unless you're picky enough that you're probably already paying and thus wouldn't be in the ad-supported tier.

That said, I wonder if ads are even lucrative enough to move the needle relative to how much training costs are increasing with each generation.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#84

Post by ProfessorLayton »

satvikpendem wrote: post #56
operatingthetan wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be specific, search will be consumed by the LLMs, it'll be merely an aspect of what they do for the user, and that'll include handling the more intricate details of the search, refining the search, understanding the results of search, etc. The age of the typical user handling any of that is about to end. We already have the tech for that, why hasn't it happened? People are revolted by the AI results in Google. A…

Who is revolted? I use the AI Google results every day when asking for specific questions, I rarely visit the webpages before anymore. Also Google already injects ads into conversations in the form of Google Shopping affiliate links.

>I rarely visit the webpages before anymore.

And what do you think this'll do for future LLM models that need to train on new content if web page traffic collapses?

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#85

Post by Razengan »

dgellow wrote: post #3
cmiles8 wrote: post #2

This is important context in the wake of yesterday’s “raise” announcement. A lot of this stuff seems to just quietly never happen once the ink on the PR puff dries. The AI industry increasingly looks in scramble mode to keep the hype going as those storm clouds of financial and business reality get darker and darker on the horizon.

Anthropic does look healthier, with their enterprise focus. Or am I missing something?

Holy f'n Hell, there's such a blatant bias on HackerNews in favor of Anthropic and against OpenAI.

I'm just a user, and in my experience Claude has been consistently crap compared to ChatGPT/Codex.

I use both side-by-side, and have paid for a ChatGPT subscription every month for around 1 year, but only 2 months for Claude; once last year, and again since last month.

Everything from the sign up, the sign in, the payment, the UI, the UX, gosh, just sucks on Claude.

And the AI itself: SO. MUCH. "OoPs you're right! I was mistaken" BACKTRACKING! It's downright DANGEROUS to listen to it! God I can post screenshots of working on the same project and the same prompts with both agents and prove how worse Claude is.

Of course this comment will be downvoted by Anthropic's paid PR machine, because there's no way actual users who have tried both products would be so in favor of Claude.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#86

Post by satvikpendem »

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #84
satvikpendem wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is revolted? I use the AI Google results every day when asking for specific questions, I rarely visit the webpages before anymore. Also Google already injects ads into conversations in the form of Google Shopping affiliate links.

>I rarely visit the webpages before anymore. And what do you think this'll do for future LLM models that need to train on new content if web page traffic collapses?

I understand the concern but it's frankly not my problem as a user, that is for the authors and corporations to figure out. No one would (or should) blame car buyers for putting horse and buggies out of business, they're merely participating in the market as a consumer not the producer.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#87

Post by darth_avocado »

dgellow wrote: post #3
cmiles8 wrote: post #2

This is important context in the wake of yesterday’s “raise” announcement. A lot of this stuff seems to just quietly never happen once the ink on the PR puff dries. The AI industry increasingly looks in scramble mode to keep the hype going as those storm clouds of financial and business reality get darker and darker on the horizon.

Anthropic does look healthier, with their enterprise focus. Or am I missing something?

> healthier

Correct. As compared to other AI companies. Tangible product, specific market segment and stable user base.

But whether it is worth a trillion dollars (like some of the peers are pretending to be) is yet to be seen. A lot of companies are using Anthropic products, but whether the spend is worth it, is also yet to be seen. A more realistic end state for Anthropic would be that they’d enterprise customers, with limited but steady spend due to Anthropic finally having to stop subsidizing tokens and a valuation in around $200-350B.

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#88

Post by harmonic18374 »

bdangubic wrote: post #45
harmonic18374 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's tempting to look at trends and assume there must be a rule behind them, but it's also intellectually lazy. Please do the hard work of justifying your stance like GGP did.

it is a simple stance - if you have a product that is used by hundreds of millions of people ad monetization strategy will be found cause there are people a lot smarter than you and me that will get it done. here’s intellectual challenge - find a business with comparable number of users to openai which is not swimming in ad revenue - one will do

Snapchat

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#89

Post by bcooke »

They’ve lost a whole lot of people in prominent roles over the past few years. I wonder how much of the misfires and general thrash in product direction is a result of brain drain and/or so many hands changing. Or maybe I’m confusing cause and effect… hard to tell

Re: The OpenAI graveyard: All the deals and products that haven't happened

#90

Post by Marazan »

ianbutler wrote: post #78
mandevil wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And not normal for a company that has been at it this long. The Apple II went on sale on June 10th, 1977. Visicalc went on sale October 17th, 1979- 860 days separate the two. ChatGPT was opened to the public on November 30th, 2022, which was 1219 days ago- almost 50% more time has elapsed than between the Apple II and Visicalc.

Without me trying to be snarky why do you feel spreadsheet software launching is comparable to this scenario?

VisiCalc was the killer app.
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