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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#91

Post by whateveracct »

smitty1e wrote: post #58
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Depending upon which party controls the White House, numbers seem to be released to support a predictable narrative, then adjusted later. But that's probably just my lying' eyes.

this admin is different

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#93

Post by hattmall »

mikeyouse wrote: post #44
arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

This ratchet effect of partially righting the ship every four years followed by drunken sailors YOLOing further into a reef because the ‘responsible party’ didn’t fix things fast enough is unsustainable. No clue how it ends but it’s so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage.

I really have a hard time understanding the analogy of the "responsible party" existing, when it was objectively the Biden administration that did the most damage to the average American.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#94

Post by ndr42 »

lpa22 wrote: post #53
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

The US is the best 400 mil population country in the world

What does "best" means? Which population size would you consider comparable to the US (i assume you don't meant it in a way in which Germany would be the best 83,6 mil population country in the World)?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#95

Post by bcrosby95 »

alexfromapex wrote: post #50

[flagged]

I track my grocery spend and even with three growing kids it's gone up 18% the last 6 years. It's not scientific but I don't see how your statement can be true unless by "many items" you're not talking about the bulk of what my family spends

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#96

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

culi wrote: post #62
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#98

Post by jeffbee »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #90
jeffbee wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

I don't say stuff like this very often, but are you actually blaming a victim for dealing with the reality of government bsing its own stats instead of the government that allowed this bs to continue? BLS had only one thing going for it and it is mostly that it was used for long enough time that changing methodology would prevent us from being able to compare it prior time ranges. That is it. Otherwise, the methodolo…

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#99

Post by estimator7292 »

fifticon wrote: post #87

the comment section for this post is a shit show, most of the main comments have been downvoted to gray-land.

No, the bad, lazy, and outright incorrect takes are downvoted to oblivion. They just have a lot of child comments because HNers like nothing more than rebutting the dumbest opinions.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#100

Post by _zagj »

Negitivefrags wrote: post #55
throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

I’m curious how you would respond to the arguments in this video. https://youtu.be/9KJTWmRrneo?si=I9mvSPfDnhkckb9n

This chart: https://www.longtermtrends.com/home-price-vs-inflation/

And Case-Shiller is based on price-per-square footage, so the argument that houses are bigger is moot.

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