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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#81

Post by cess11 »

lokar wrote: post #68
CalRobert wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy can get better while life gets worse for most people. After all, an economy where 95% of the work was done by enslaved people might produce amazing profits and a very high GDP....

The use of GDP, or GDP/Population as the primary metric is a real problem. We need to use a metric that is closer to "total economic benefit for the median person", that would include income, as well as government services.

The Gini coefficient and sometimes its' velocity would be a better alternative.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#82

Post by david422 »

mikeyouse wrote: post #44
arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

This ratchet effect of partially righting the ship every four years followed by drunken sailors YOLOing further into a reef because the ‘responsible party’ didn’t fix things fast enough is unsustainable. No clue how it ends but it’s so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage.

> so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage

Tangentially related, there was a local property nearby that had these large, aesthetic trees in the yard. The house was sold, a developer cut them all and flipped the house for sale.

Probably took 50+ years to grow, gone in an hour.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#83

Post by hattmall »

alexfromapex wrote: post #50

[flagged]

The issue is that this isn't really supply constrained inflation. This is price discovery and discrimination by major retailers. The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed. I have paid rather intense attention to the price of groceries since 2015 when I started purchasing for my business kitchen as we started providing prepared meals. In general, prices are very close to 2015 levels for the important goods.

I have some basic guidelines for an acceptable range that are from when I started in 2015.

Milk: $2.50 / g Frozen Fruit $2/ lb Cheese $3 / lb Wheat $3 / 5lb Oats $3 / 40 40 oz Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast $2 / lb

These are all prices that I am still able to routinely meet or exceed in 2026.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#84

Post by fhdkweig »

zzleeper wrote: post #17
booleandilemma wrote: post #2

It's what we regularly accuse China of, right? While we're on the topic, why is it that we love to point the finger at other countries' corruption and we completely ignore the very obvious, rampant corruption in our own government? And I mean on both sides - Democrat and Republican. Insider trading, revolving door policies, etc. That's not even mentioning why we have people like Luigi Mangione. That's a whole separat…

Please don't "both side" this. As much as there is corruption in any administration, R or D, the levels we are seeing now are completely unprecedent and blunt. EG: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/13/politics/trump-fundraise-emai... (from earlier this morning on the HN frontpage)

On that topic, how many presidents in the past have had merch stores after elected? I can understand fundraising during a campaign, but after winning or losing, the fundraising usually stops.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#86

Post by leet_thow »

Dumblydorr wrote: post #66
jjtwixman wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Who deserves it? What is it? Wishing bad things onto others is not a wise policy.

He's just an edgelord, ignore. The point is to get people riled up and spread the misery.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#88

Post by watwut »

gmueckl wrote: post #43
echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

This is an downright evil take on the current situation. The supply chains are so complex that no single country is capable of replicating them entirely. It starts with the fact that the required natural resources are distributed around the globe in a way that no country has access to all of them. The production chains from resources to finished machines are downright byzantine. And this becomes recursive with the ne…

> Any Western strategy that sees this as both "us vs. them" and also pursues reduced international collaboration is bound to lose bitterly in the long run.

The problem is that Europe does not have a choice here. The Greenland steal crisis is on hold, but not fixed. America clearly shown it will abuse any ties there are - it will lock accounts to tech to bully and get what they want. It will use tariffs to bully countries to make laws, release presidents friends criminals from prisons, you name it.

Meanwhile, America seems to take Russian side in Russian expansion. Meanwhile, America is just cause major oil issue and potentially triggered next refugees crisis. Meanwhile, America clearly shown it does not even pretend to care bout war crimes and international law at all. It is sponsoring afd and other fascist parties all around the Europe while openly insulting Europe. Maybe it is too late for disconnect, but not trying would basically be a suicide for Europe.

It would be great if it was not "us vs them". But it is "us vs them". Trust toward American made Europe super vulnerable.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#89

Post by tehjoker »

varispeed wrote: post #79
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

[flagged]

We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#90

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

jeffbee wrote: post #74
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

I don't say stuff like this very often, but are you actually blaming a victim for dealing with the reality of government bsing its own stats instead of the government that allowed this bs to continue? BLS had only one thing going for it and it is mostly that it was used for long enough time that changing methodology would prevent us from being able to compare it prior time ranges. That is it. Otherwise, the methodology itself is seriously flawed ( and likely was from get go, but these days, it is absolutely the worst possible mix of options ).

Honestly, your comment made me mildly angry. That said, can you say why you believe parent's comment is misleading?

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