CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate • Hacker News Board

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#91

Post by overfeed » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:32 PM UTC

xadhominemx wrote: post #15

orphea wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are adding capacity as quickly as they can [...], just like everyone else Are you sure? In the past they explicitly said they are not going to increase production. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/memory-maker...

Yes of course their messaging to customers and the investment community is that they will be rational and measured in their investments. In reality, they are adding capacity as quickly as possible as margins are too high. However, capacity addition leading edge semiconductor manufacturing has a multi-year lead time.

> In reality, they are adding capacity as quickly as possible [...]

Even if we ignore the fact that you can't build out factories in secret, this would be securities fraud by publicly listed companies.

> ...as margins are too high

This is not the first RAM boom-bust cycle, and memory makers are an actual cartel convicted of coordinating in the past - none if them are going to break rank when they can invest the minimum and reap outsized benefits. Also, no one wants to invest in additional capacity when the bottom can fall out at anytime, and shareholders demand your head- not even the AI companies want to bear that risk, which is saying something.

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#92

Post by timschmidt » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:33 PM UTC

youarentrightjr wrote: post #71

zozbot234 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The domestic industry is still there, only instead of mass-market DRAM it has started making higher-valued varieties of the same stuff. If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff, just at much higher cost. You can't expect more than that, since they never really were as big or as low-cost as the lowest cost suppliers can be in normal times. That's not "losing" capacity, it's jus…

> If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff Factories, tooling, supply chains, and engineering knowledge aren't fungible in the way they would need to be for your statement to be true.

Different types of DRAM can literally be made from the same already-etched wafer. The DRAM bits themselves don't change at all. What's different between DDR4, DDR5, and HBM is the IO interface to the chip. Changing this does not require significant retooling or relearning.

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#93

Post by Forgeties79 » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:34 PM UTC

decryption wrote: post #79

That explains the cheap DDR4 DIMMs on AliExpress. Can get 2x 16GB DDR4-3200 DIMMs for A$252 delivered to Australia. A local PC store has same spec “name brand” RAM for around $380-$400. https://a.aliexpress.com/_mssanU1

These prices are insane. I can’t believe that’s what constitutes a good deal right now.

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#94

Post by yellowapple » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:35 PM UTC

wrsh07 wrote: post #47

nutjob2 wrote: post #8

This is good news. The price you pay for jacking up your prices is losing market share. Once established, the Chinese vendors will retain most the market share if the quality is ok. The SK/JP vendors are making a big mistake.

It's not clear that raising your prices to match the supply/demand curve is a mistake They will compete on price if they are forced to, but they aren't forced to right now

It ain't the price raise that's the mistake (even if that's what's currently painful for those of us looking to buy RAM). It's the willingness to only raise prices, and not meaningfully expand production, that's the mistake.

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#95

Post by pdhborges » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:39 PM UTC

timschmidt wrote: post #92

youarentrightjr wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff Factories, tooling, supply chains, and engineering knowledge aren't fungible in the way they would need to be for your statement to be true.

Different types of DRAM can literally be made from the same already-etched wafer. The DRAM bits themselves don't change at all. What's different between DDR4, DDR5, and HBM is the IO interface to the chip. Changing this does not require significant retooling or relearning.

Does that mean CXMT is one inch away from also eating into the DDR5 market?

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#96

Post by RobotToaster » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC

dygd wrote: post #40

someperson wrote: post #4

As a outside observer, NAND and DRAM prices have skyrocket ed with the AI infrastructure boom just as the China-based fabs are coming online. It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM. But right now it seems they can max out their supply capacity without selling below cost. Appears to me like China…

> It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM. Crucial's departure from the consumer market left such a gaping hole, that CXMT doesn't even need to push other players out to gain a footing.

It's more like everyone else abandoned the market, and CXMT realised it was free real estate.

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#97

Post by overfeed » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

zozbot234 wrote: post #43

mrweasel wrote: post #3

This feels like a classic business blunder. Focus hard on a single business segment, leaving an opening in the market for your competitors. Not because it wasn't profitable, but because it wasn't profitable enough for you, right now. Only downside is that now you've created an opening for a new player in the market. This feels like a short coming of western business/stock market thinking. Focusing on profit within th…

It's not really a blunder though. Given that total capacity is tightly constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix are happy to focus on what they do at their best and with the highest margins. Why shouldn't they supply the HBM market?

It's putting all eggs in one basket. If/when the higher-margin category collapses, they'll have no fallback. Imagine Chevrolet had discontinued Impalas and other low-margin cars, and switched to Corvettes during the pandemic

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#98

Post by RobotToaster » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC

someperson wrote: post #4

As a outside observer, NAND and DRAM prices have skyrocket ed with the AI infrastructure boom just as the China-based fabs are coming online. It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM. But right now it seems they can max out their supply capacity without selling below cost. Appears to me like China…

It's amazing what can be achieved when you can plan 5 years in advance, instead of just making the line go up for the next quarter.

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#99

Post by kristianp » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC

Also moving into HBM:

> CXMT is in the process of converting wafer capacity equivalent to about 20 percent of its total DRAM output — some 60,000 wafers per month — at its Shanghai plant to the fourth-generation HBM3 chip production

Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate

#100

Post by yellowapple » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:55 PM UTC

hyperman1 wrote: post #39

ThrowawayTestr wrote: post #11

This decade is going to end with Chinese dominance in everything. Trump and AI handed them everything they need on a platter.

Western European countries got dominant, then got arrogant, letting the USA eat their lunch. USA got dominant, got arrogant, letting China eat their lunch. China is indeed getting dominant. They will get arrogant one day. Meanwhile, Western Europe and the USA are still very good places to live.

The pertinent question, then, is who's gonna eat China's lunch?

My guess would be south/southeast Asia (India and Vietnam seem especially promising), but if the US was smart it'd put its efforts fully toward as many infrastructure investments and trade agreements and immigration agreements as possible to create a pan-American economic union. We have the resources and technology to turn every country in North and South America into an industrial and technological powerhouse. We have the resources and technology to finally conquer the Darién Gap and connect North and South America with highways and high-speed rail. We have the resources and technology to go on the offense against drug cartels (while also eliminating the failed border controls and drug prohibitions that keep those cartels in business in the first place).

If we're gonna be imperialists, then by golly let's at least be productive about it.