This decade is going to end with Chinese dominance in everything. Trump and AI handed them everything they need on a platter.
CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
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Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#12This feels like a classic business blunder. Focus hard on a single business segment, leaving an opening in the market for your competitors. Not because it wasn't profitable, but because it wasn't profitable enough for you, right now. Only downside is that now you've created an opening for a new player in the market. This feels like a short coming of western business/stock market thinking. Focusing on profit within th…
CXMT sells the vast majority of their bits at the prevailing market rate, just like everyone else. They are adding capacity as quickly as they can, with a 5-10 year planning horizon, just like everyone else. It’s really not that deep!
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#13This is good news. The price you pay for jacking up your prices is losing market share. Once established, the Chinese vendors will retain most the market share if the quality is ok. The SK/JP vendors are making a big mistake.
Everyone is completely sold out and adding capacity as quickly as possible.
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#14This feels like a classic business blunder. Focus hard on a single business segment, leaving an opening in the market for your competitors. Not because it wasn't profitable, but because it wasn't profitable enough for you, right now. Only downside is that now you've created an opening for a new player in the market. This feels like a short coming of western business/stock market thinking. Focusing on profit within th…
CXMT sells the vast majority of their bits at the prevailing market rate, just like everyone else. They are adding capacity as quickly as they can, with a 5-10 year planning horizon, just like everyone else. It’s really not that deep!
> They are adding capacity as quickly as they can [...], just like everyone else
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/memory-maker...
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
CXMT sells the vast majority of their bits at the prevailing market rate, just like everyone else. They are adding capacity as quickly as they can, with a 5-10 year planning horizon, just like everyone else. It’s really not that deep!
> They are adding capacity as quickly as they can [...], just like everyone else Are you sure? In the past they explicitly said they are not going to increase production. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/memory-maker...
Yes of course their messaging to customers and the investment community is that they will be rational and measured in their investments. In reality, they are adding capacity as quickly as possible as margins are too high. However, capacity addition leading edge semiconductor manufacturing has a multi-year lead time.
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#16This is good news. The price you pay for jacking up your prices is losing market share. Once established, the Chinese vendors will retain most the market share if the quality is ok. The SK/JP vendors are making a big mistake.
Everyone is completely sold out and adding capacity as quickly as possible.
Are they really adding capacity?
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#17As a outside observer, NAND and DRAM prices have skyrocket ed with the AI infrastructure boom just as the China-based fabs are coming online. It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM. But right now it seems they can max out their supply capacity without selling below cost. Appears to me like China…
I personally fail to see the downside of any manufacturer selling forever at a loss, except for the manufacturer itself.
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#18Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#19This is just marketing. Why would you sell at 50% of market rate? Chinese production of NAND and DRAM is not significant, it's single digit %
Re: CXMT has been offering DDR4 chips at about half the prevailing market rate
#20DDR4 going from $1.35 to $11.50 in a year shows this market was already distorted before CXMT showed up.
Legacy DRAM is still over half of Samsung and SK hynix's production capacity. That's where the volume pain actually lands while they're betting everything on HBM4.