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Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

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Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#91

Post by fallingfrog »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #16
fallingfrog wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, bitcoin, having no intrinsic value, is priced entirely by vibes. Right now the vibes are generally negative. The latest bubble of interest has faded. I would wait, the world could become interested again but it may be 2 or 3 years. The bottom will probably be around 70k.

The trouble with vibe-based pricing is it’s really hard to time the vibes. And hard to time the vibe dip.

Yes this is absolutely true. Difficult to impossible, I would say.. my prediction of "2 to 3 years" could very well be totally wrong.

The dominant narrative around bitcoin right now is "hodl because in the long term it always goes up." Thats the core premise that the bitcoin price is based on. If that premise were to crack, bitcoin could drop to near zero for all we know.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#92

Post by Esophagus4 »

fallingfrog wrote: post #91
Esophagus4 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trouble with vibe-based pricing is it’s really hard to time the vibes. And hard to time the vibe dip.

Yes this is absolutely true. Difficult to impossible, I would say.. my prediction of "2 to 3 years" could very well be totally wrong. The dominant narrative around bitcoin right now is "hodl because in the long term it always goes up." Thats the core premise that the bitcoin price is based on. If that premise were to crack, bitcoin could drop to near zero for all we know.

Yeah, exactly.

While I’ve been watching it, it seems like the narrative of value has rotated between:

- BTC will be a global currency (this has only proven true for illicit activity)

- BTC will be a hedge against inflation like gold (this has also not been correct recently)

- BTC is a store of value??? Which is just circular reasoning… you should buy it because other people are buying it

Idk man, what do I know

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#95

Post by anupamchugh »

jfengel wrote: post #43
woeirua wrote: post #10

My working hypothesis is that people are dumping Bitcoin for AI adjacent stocks because the hype around agents is growing. There’s no way to prove this, but I’m seeing unexpected behaviors on the secondary markets for privately held AI companies.

At least AI produces something. Maybe not what everyone hopes for, but there is some output that people are worth paying for. Cryptocurrency lived entirely in the hopes that people wanted to replace regular money, and it turns out not to be a big use case outside of criminals and refugees. The AI bubble will one day collapse too. But the Bitcoin bubble could just plain vanish.

Not a big use case outside of criminals and refugees" - the refugee use case alone matters to hundreds of millions living under capital controls or currency collapse. Argentinians escaping peso devaluation aren't criminals. Ukrainians moving value during invasion aren't edge cases.

Whether Bitcoin is good at this is debatable. Whether it's a real use case isn't.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#96

Post by SkyeCA »

SkyeCA wrote: post #44
fooker wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can easily trade gold until someone can force it from you. The amount of gold you can realistically conceal is less than a year of your salary.

A year of my salary is between 1lbs to 2lbs of gold at current prices. Hiding a few pounds of something isn't very difficult, I do it every Christmas.

Fur future readers: I was making a joke about Christmas dinner if that wasn't clear.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#98

Post by harambae »

blargthorwars wrote: post #29
GCA10 wrote: post #17

Vibes guy here. I dabbled in Bitcoin for about a year, on the notion that if the world's overall financial system got degraded, more people would view Bitcoin holdings as a safe way to preserve value. Maybe better than owning physical gold. Why not get in early before the next stampede? But I was wrong about bitcoin > gold. It's worked the other way around. There's also persistent chatter that the supposedly uncracka…

Don't even need quantum to worry: Satoshi's wallet could be a massive rug pull by the CIA/FBA/NSA when the time comes.

No one thinks the FBI is competent enough for it to be them.
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