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Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

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Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#41

Post by Retric »

torginus wrote: post #35
GCA10 wrote: post #17

Vibes guy here. I dabbled in Bitcoin for about a year, on the notion that if the world's overall financial system got degraded, more people would view Bitcoin holdings as a safe way to preserve value. Maybe better than owning physical gold. Why not get in early before the next stampede? But I was wrong about bitcoin > gold. It's worked the other way around. There's also persistent chatter that the supposedly uncracka…

The biggest problem with metals is the same as crypto - there's no fundamental underlying value like P/E or product announcements you can anchor the price to - so its free to fluctuate. How much of a problem that actually is we got to find out last Friday.

A large fraction of gold mined every year is used for its material properties in industrial and electronic applications. That presents a very real floor on price. If good was suddenly worth 1/10th as much we would use it in far more industrial applications thus driving up the price. Similarly mining would slow down from the current ~3,000 tons annually again driving the price up.

Gold is currently priced way above that level, but just like the stock market were dividends allow people to buy more stock when the price is low there is a very tangible feedback loop propping up the price which eventually kicks in.

Counterintuitively this means using gold as an investment vehicle makes the world a worse place because we fall back to less efficient methods in industry, and efficiency is ultimately the engine of progress.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#42

Post by josefx »

creetioc wrote: post #28
GCA10 wrote: post #17

Vibes guy here. I dabbled in Bitcoin for about a year, on the notion that if the world's overall financial system got degraded, more people would view Bitcoin holdings as a safe way to preserve value. Maybe better than owning physical gold. Why not get in early before the next stampede? But I was wrong about bitcoin > gold. It's worked the other way around. There's also persistent chatter that the supposedly uncracka…

You can easily trade gold today. You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts to the goons pressganging people into dying in the trenches so they take your bitcoin hoarding neighbor instead. You can easily trade gold after a nuclear apocalypse to your local warlord so you get access to non-irradiated food. Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-go…

> You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts

If you want something you can trade post ww3 also stockpile alcohol, tobacco, coffee, etc. . Small luxuries everyone will be willing to trade for in a post war country.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#43

Post by jfengel »

woeirua wrote: post #10

My working hypothesis is that people are dumping Bitcoin for AI adjacent stocks because the hype around agents is growing. There’s no way to prove this, but I’m seeing unexpected behaviors on the secondary markets for privately held AI companies.

At least AI produces something. Maybe not what everyone hopes for, but there is some output that people are worth paying for.

Cryptocurrency lived entirely in the hopes that people wanted to replace regular money, and it turns out not to be a big use case outside of criminals and refugees.

The AI bubble will one day collapse too. But the Bitcoin bubble could just plain vanish.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#44

Post by SkyeCA »

fooker wrote: post #37
creetioc wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can easily trade gold today. You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts to the goons pressganging people into dying in the trenches so they take your bitcoin hoarding neighbor instead. You can easily trade gold after a nuclear apocalypse to your local warlord so you get access to non-irradiated food. Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-go…

You can easily trade gold until someone can force it from you. The amount of gold you can realistically conceal is less than a year of your salary.

A year of my salary is between 1lbs to 2lbs of gold at current prices. Hiding a few pounds of something isn't very difficult, I do it every Christmas.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#46

Post by lm28469 »

This is good for bitcoin /s

When silver is behaving like a shitcoin you know we're in for a fun ride. I think the fact that anyone with a phone can now download countless apps that allows them to """invest""" with leverage &co was a mistake. My bank app now advertises memecoins as a way to build "wealth"...

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#47

Post by paxys »

Whether the price goes up or down from here, one notion has been sufficiently shattered over the last couple of years - that Bitcoin is a stable ~source~ store of value that acts has a hedge against inflation and currency control by governments. While assets like gold and silver have surged in the same time period due to political and economic uncertainty, as one may expect, Bitcoin has gone in the opposite direction and has been driven more by hype cycles and a small number of whales rather than any fundamentals.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#48

Post by amjnsx »

creetioc wrote: post #28
GCA10 wrote: post #17

Vibes guy here. I dabbled in Bitcoin for about a year, on the notion that if the world's overall financial system got degraded, more people would view Bitcoin holdings as a safe way to preserve value. Maybe better than owning physical gold. Why not get in early before the next stampede? But I was wrong about bitcoin > gold. It's worked the other way around. There's also persistent chatter that the supposedly uncracka…

You can easily trade gold today. You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts to the goons pressganging people into dying in the trenches so they take your bitcoin hoarding neighbor instead. You can easily trade gold after a nuclear apocalypse to your local warlord so you get access to non-irradiated food. Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-go…

This can’t be a serious comment. If ww3 starts the respective countries central banks will keep the gold for themselves. You are so naieve if you think any government is going to honour the fact that you have a piece of paper that saya you own some gold in their vault.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#49

Post by amjnsx »

jcfrei wrote: post #31

BTC failed to live up to it's own prophecy by not doubling from the last height of ca. 69420 to at least 140k in 2025. There was a last chance in October of last year, where it seemed to get close but ultimately it just didn't find enough buyers. Now with the narrative broken (bitcoin always goes up over the long term) one sell off will lead to the next as more and more people lose trust.

That isn’t something you can categorically say for sure though. If it hits 125k next month then Bitcoin does go up over the long term. Same if it hits 125k next year.
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