One of my formative impressions of AI came from the depiction of the Colligatarch from Alan Dean Foster's The I Inside. The AI in the book is almost feels like it is the main message masquerading as a subplot. Asimov knew the risks, and I had assumed until fairly recently that the lessons and explorations that he had imparted into the Robot books had provided a level of cultural knowledge of what we were about to fac…
I think people broadly feel like all of this is happening inevitably or being done by others. The alignment people struggle to get their version of AI to market first - the techies worry about being left behind. No one ends up being in a position to steer things or have any influence over the future in the race to keep up. So what can you and I do? I know in my gut that imagining an ideal outcome won't change what ac…
The Adolescence of Technology
91–100 of 159 posts
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#92Good to know the only thing preventing the emergence of potentially catastrophically evil AI is a single sentence! The pen is indeed mightier than the sword.
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#93Occasionally, I read these types of essays and get awfully depressed. As someone just starting out in the technology field (and I guess white-collar work in general), it feels as if I suddenly have no hope of ever living a fruitful and meaningful life. The means by which I could ever potentially earn a living are slowly destroyed. I do wonder if others in my age group ever feel the same, if basically everyone under 3…
> no hope of ever living a fruitful and meaningful life
This is wrong. Fruitful and meaningful life can be lived anyway independently from your career and from your financial situation. Since it seems that job opportunity and growth might shrink without "hustling" or "grinding", it's extremely important to learn from a young age what really gives meaning to life, and this task has to be done entirely by you. No quick course, no AI or tutorial can teach you this. You need to learn it by yourself when you're young because it would probably make a real difference for the rest of your life. There are some tools for it, and the best one are probably books, and fiction can be really powerful to shape your thinking. I don't know you but I'll start from this one if you haven't read it before (don't think too much about the title and the tone, concentrate on the topic): The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck
> get awfully depressed
Yes, this is a bit the feeling that over-exposition to social media provokes in a lot of people. Everything seems going shit; politics, climate, wars, nothing is right anymore. Idk you but my life is pretty stable, go out with friends, cook nice meals, traveling, stuff like that. So yes this are real problem in the world, but media currently over-expose us to this things (because it helps them sell articles and make you click). The easiest solution might be detoxing from media, and replace that with learning how things work for real trough books.
> The means by which I could ever potentially earn a living are slowly destroyed.
Unfortunately no-one know this for sure, so it doesn't make sense to overthink it. The technology field is changing but AIs are not near replacing humans yet. Technology has the power to automate and so replace every single job out there, so it's a field that still has work to be done and so investment will come in. It's just the current time that seems not right, and mostly it's because rich entrepreneurs tied themself with politics, to save their ass and make even more money in a period of political instability.
The future doesn't look bright, but learn how not to fall in a negativity trap created by media and internet.
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#94> we may have AI that is more capable than everyone in only 1-2 years There's no evidence this will be the case...
What would you consider such evidence to look like?
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#95I don't think we have much to worry about in terms of economic disruption. At this point it seems pretty clear that LLMs are having a major impact on how software is built, but for almost every other industry the practical effects are mostly incremental. Even in the software world, the effect of being able to build software a lot faster isn't really leading to a fundamentally different software landscape. Yes, you ca…
> I don't think we have much to worry about in terms of economic disruption. At this point it seems pretty clear that LLMs are having a major impact on how software is built, but for almost every other industry the practical effects are mostly incremental. You clearly didn't read the post. He is talking about AI that is smarter than any human, not today's LLMs. The fact that powerful AI doesn't exist yet doesn't mean…
This kind of petty remark is like a reverse em dash. Greetings fellow human.
Anyway, I did read it. The author's description of a future AI is basically just a more advanced version of LLMs
> By “powerful AI,” I have in mind an AI model—likely similar to today’s LLMs in form, though it might be based on a different architecture, might involve several interacting models, and might be trained differently—with the following properties:
They then go on to list several properties that meet their definition, but what I'm trying to explain in my comment is that I don't accept them all at face value. I think it's fair to critique from that perspective since the author explicitly modeled their future based on today's LLMs, unlike many AI essays that skip straight to the super intelligence meme as their premise.
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#96One of my formative impressions of AI came from the depiction of the Colligatarch from Alan Dean Foster's The I Inside. The AI in the book is almost feels like it is the main message masquerading as a subplot. Asimov knew the risks, and I had assumed until fairly recently that the lessons and explorations that he had imparted into the Robot books had provided a level of cultural knowledge of what we were about to fac…
Don't expect anyone building these systems to know what Bladerunner is, or "I have no mouth and I must scream" or any other great literature about the exact thing they are working on!
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#97You can only post-train so much... Try telling a child that martial arts isn't the solution to everything right after they've watched karate kid. A weak analogy, but it seems very clear that the healthy psychological development of frontier models is something necessary to solve.
Some good insights could come from those working at the coalface of child-psychology.
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's because few realize how downstream most of this AI industry is of Thiel, Eliezer Yudkowsky and LessWrong.com. Early "rationalist" community was concerned with AI in this way 20 years ago. Eliezer inspired and introduced the founders of Google DeepMind to Peter Thiel to get their funding. Altman acknowledged how influential Eliezer was by saying how he is most deserving of a Nobel Peace prize when AGI goes well (…
It is very weird to wonder, what if they're all wrong. Sam Bankman-Fried was clearly as committed to these ideas, and crashed his company into the ground. But clearly if out of context someone said something like this: "Clearly, the most obvious effect will be to greatly increase economic growth. The pace of advances in scientific research, biomedical innovation, manufacturing, supply chains, the efficiency of the fi…
Absolutely comical. Do you realise how much that is in absolute terms? These guys are making up as they go along. Cant believe people buy this nonsense.
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#99One of my formative impressions of AI came from the depiction of the Colligatarch from Alan Dean Foster's The I Inside. The AI in the book is almost feels like it is the main message masquerading as a subplot. Asimov knew the risks, and I had assumed until fairly recently that the lessons and explorations that he had imparted into the Robot books had provided a level of cultural knowledge of what we were about to fac…
My interpretation is that Asimov assumed that humans would require understanding at the deepest levels of artificial intelligence before it could be created. He built the robot concepts rooted in the mechanical world rather than the world of the integrated circuit. He never imagined, I suppose, that we would have the computing power necessary to just YOLO-dump the sum of all human knowledge into a few math problems a…
>But the specific issues we are dealing with have little to do with us feeling safe and protected behind some immutable rules that are built into the system
If your interpretation of the Robot books was that was suggesting a few immutable rules would make us safe and protected, you may have missed the primary message. The overarching theme was an exploration of what those laws could do, and how they may not necessarily correlate with what we want or even perceive as safe and protected. If anything the rules represented a starting point and the books were presenting a challenge to come up with something better.
Anthropic's work on autoencoding activations down to measurable semantic points might prove a step towards that something better. The fact that they can do manipulations based upon those semantic points does suggest something akin to the laws of robotics might be possible.
When it comes to alignment, the way many describe it, it is simply impossible because humans themselves are not aligned. Picking a median, mean, or lowest common denominator of human alignment would be a choice that people probably cannot agree. We are unaligned on even how we could compromise.
In reality, if you have control over what AI does there are only two options.
1. We can make AI do what some people say,
2. We can make them do what they want (assuming we can make them want)
If we make them do what some people, that hands the power to those who have that say.
I think there will come a time when an AI will perceive people doing something wrong, that most people do not think is wrong, and the AI will be the one that is right. Do we want it to intervene or not? Are we instead happy with a nation developing superintelligence that is subservient to the wishes of say, Vladimir Putin.
Re: The Adolescence of Technology
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is very weird to wonder, what if they're all wrong. Sam Bankman-Fried was clearly as committed to these ideas, and crashed his company into the ground. But clearly if out of context someone said something like this: "Clearly, the most obvious effect will be to greatly increase economic growth. The pace of advances in scientific research, biomedical innovation, manufacturing, supply chains, the efficiency of the fi…
"In Machines of Loving Grace, I suggest that a 10–20% sustained annual GDP growth rate may be possible."" Absolutely comical. Do you realise how much that is in absolute terms? These guys are making up as they go along. Cant believe people buy this nonsense.
I somewhat don't disagree, and yet. It feels like more people in the world buy into it than don't? To a large degree?