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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

dwarkesh.com

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#91

Post by thomasdziedzic »

nh23423fefe wrote: post #42
evandrofisico wrote: post #3

And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?

stop repeating that. first, it isn't true that intelligence is barely defined. https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.3639 second a definition is obviously not a prerequisite as evidenced by natural selection

> stop repeating that. first, it isn't true that intelligence is barely defined. https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.3639

I don't think he should stop, because I think he's right. We lack a definition of intelligence that doesn't do a lot of hand waving.

You linked to a paper with 18 collective definitions, 35 psychologist definitions, and 18 ai researcher definitions of intelligence. And the conclusion of the paper was that they came up with their own definition of intelligence. That is not a definition in my book.

> second a definition is obviously not a prerequisite as evidenced by natural selection

right, we just need a universe, several billions of years and sprinkle some evolution and we'll also get intelligence, maybe.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#92

Post by fbrchps »

czk wrote: post #73
Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

like leveling to 99 in old school runescape

The first 92% and the last 92%, exactly.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#93

Post by tauchunfall »

sosodev wrote: post #77

I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.

there is a transcript, people can skim for interesting parts and read for 30 minutes and then comment.

edit: typo fix.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#94

Post by flyinglizard »

6d6b73 wrote: post #65

Even without AGI, current LLMs will change society in ways we can't yet imagine. And this is both good and bad. Current LLMs are just a different type of automation, not mechanical like control systems and robots, but intellectual. They don't have to be able to think independently, but as long as they automate some white-collar tasks, they will change how the rest of society works. The simple transistor is just a sma…

The same thing you described that makes LLM great also make them entirely non-deterministic and unreliable for serious automated applications.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#95

Post by markbao »

sosodev wrote: post #77

I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.

Just as the core idea of a book can be (lossily) summarized in a few sentences, the core crux of an argument can be quite simple and not require wading though the whole discussion (the AGI discussion is only 30 minutes anyhow).

Granted, a bunch of commenters are probably doing what you’re saying.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#96

Post by sdenton4 »

adastra22 wrote: post #37
hnuser123456 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a valid term that is worth introducing to the layperson IMO. Let them know how the magic works, and how it doesn't.

Machine learning is only part of how an LLM agent works though. An essential part, but only a part.

I see a fair amount of bullshit in the LLM space though, where even cursory consideration would connect the methods back to well-known principles in ML (and even statistics!) to measure model quality and progress. There's a lot of 'woo, it's new! we don't know how to measure it exactly but we think it's groundbreaking!' which is simply wrong.

From where I sit, the generative models provide more flexibility but tend to underperform on any particular task relative to a targeted machine learning effort, once you actually do the work on comparative evaluation.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#97

Post by zeroonetwothree »

Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

When I worked at Facebook they had a slogan that captured this idea pretty well: “this journey is 1% finished”.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#98

Post by jasonthorsness »

sosodev wrote: post #77

I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.

This one does have the full transcript underneath (wonderful feature). But it's a long read too so I think your assumption is correct :P.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#99

Post by jacobolus »

CSSer wrote: post #27
Topgamer7 wrote: post #5

Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.

The best part of this is I watched Sam Altman say he really thinks fusion is a short period of time away in response to a question about energy consumption a couple years ago. That was the moment I knew he's a quack.

Altman recently said, in response to a question about the prospect of half of entry-level white-collar jobs being replaced by "AI" and college graduates being put out of work by it:

> “I mean in 2035, that, like, graduating college student, if they still go to college at all, could very well be, like, leaving on a mission to explore the solar system on a spaceship in some completely new, exciting, super well-paid, super interesting job, and feeling so bad for you and I that, like, we had to do this kind of, like, really boring old kind of work and everything is just better."

Which should be reassuring to anyone having trouble finding an entry-level job as an illustrator or copywriter or programmer or whatever.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#100

Post by zeroonetwothree »

czk wrote: post #73
Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

like leveling to 99 in old school runescape

Or Diablo 2
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