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Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

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Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#91

Post by ndsipa_pomu »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #45
bartlettD wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever heard that "the market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent"? The thing about bubbles is, you can often easily spot them, but can't so easily say when they'll pop.

No. Then you haven’t spotted a bubble. You’ve just made a comment that “wow, things are going up!” That’s not spotting bubble, that’s my non-technical uncle commenting at a dinner party, “wow this bitcoin thing sure is crazy huh?” Talk is cheap. You learn what someone really believes by what they put their money in. If you really believe we’re in a bubble, truly believe it based on your deep understanding of the mark…

Surely you can spot a bubble if you see that it is rapidly expanding and ultimately unsustainable. Being able to predict when it finally pops would be equivalent to winning a lottery and people would be able to make a lot of money from that, but ultimately no-one can reliably predict when a bubble will pop - doesn't mean that they weren't bubbles.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#92

Post by diffeomorphism »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #35
estomagordo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's a sign it's going to happen ever?

Humans. There are arrangements of atoms that if constructed and activated, act perfectly like human intelligence. Because they are human intelligence. Human intelligence must be deterministic, any other conclusion is equivalent to the claim that there is some sort of "soul" for lack of better term. If human intelligence is deterministic, then it can be written in software. Thus, if we continue to strive to design/cre…

> if deterministic, then can be done in software.

You just need a few Dyson spheres and someone omniscient to give you all the parameter values. Easy peazy.

Just like cracking any encryption: you just brute force all possible passwords. Perfectly deterministic decryption method.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#93

Post by whitehexagon »

For me the question is who is going to subscribe who hasnt already. And that is before we consider the next gen hardware that can run this stuff locally.

But from what I see of the economy around me here, people just dont have the spare funds for LLM luxuries. It feels like 15+ years of wage deflation, and company streamlining, has removed what little spare spending power people had here. Not forgetting the inflation we have seen in the euro zone.

Even if the bet is now an 'all in' on AGI, I see that more as an existential threat than an economic golden egg bailout.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#94

Post by ratelimitsteve »

forinti wrote: post #19
ratelimitsteve wrote: post #10

this is how capitalism does things. no one wants to overinvest but no one wants to be left behind and everyone is sure that either there's not gonna be a pop or they can sell before it pops. it has been educational to see how quickly the financier class has moved when they saw an opportunity to abandon labor entirely, though. that's worth remembering when they talk about how this system is the best one for everyone.

Leaving large portions of the population jobless surely can't be good for business and political stability.

I feel like a lot of people aren't fully examining what AGI would mean for labor. As of right now labor exists separate from capital, which is to say the economy is made of workers, stuff and money. Workers get stuff, put labor into it and turn it into more valuable stuff, capital owns that stuff so they sell it to other workers (usually) and give their workers some portion of the increase in value. AGI would mean that capital is labor. The stuff can go get more stuff and refine it. Capital won't make stuff to sell, they'll just make stuff they want and stuff to go get and make stuff they want. It will, of course, be wildly bad for political stability but I feel like a lot of people think they've found some sort of catch 182 in AGI when labor has no money to buy stuff. They think "That'll shut the whole economy down" but what would really happen is instead of building a machine that makes boots, hiring someone to run it, selling boots and using the money to buy a yacht they'll just build a machine that makes yachts and another machine that kills anyone who interferes with the yacht machine. An economy made of workers, stuff and money will become an economy just made of stuff, as workers will be replaced by stuff and money was only ever useful as a way to induce people to work.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#95

Post by whimsicalism »

alphazard wrote: post #90
whimsicalism wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

pretty much all modern economists disagree with you https://kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/laffer-curve/

Just a reminder that professional macro-economists are paid to justify political decisions. That's the job. Find data that can arguably make this policy (made for other reasons) make sense to the voters, who have a much worse understanding of economics. As always, the question with economists is "why aren't you rich?". You would get much better answers about macro-economic counterfactuals by going to a macro-trading…

putting aside the fact that that is not really true about bias in the economics profession, I have good friends who are ex-Bridgewater who would agree with me... and listen to what Ray Dalio says about our fiscal trajectory.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#96

Post by AnimalMuppet »

marbro wrote: post #54
CraigJPerry wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> sovereign debt burden So all the entities that want to hold the debt (social security administration, mutual funds, pension funds etc) where should they go instead? Riskier assets is what you're saying right? Is that a great idea?

All investors should choose gold over the dollar because paper money is always debased. Organizations like Apple, Microsoft, and Google bought government bonds 10 years ago when the price of gold was $1100 and have watched their investments erode while gold has increased to $4000.

I see this kind of idea a lot, and it's wrong.

The surface way it's wrong is that investors could have invested in Nvidia 10 years ago instead of gold. Because they didn't, their investments "eroded" even more.

The deeper way it's wrong is that people who say this almost always have the unstated premise that gold is "real" money, that every price should be measured against it. That premise is false.

When gold was allowed to float in terms of the US dollar, it went up to $200, then dropped down to $100. When it dropped to $100, the dollar didn't become worth twice as much. Or, to use a more recent example, there has not been a factor of 4 inflation over the last 10 years. So gold is not a fixed measuring stick, against which all other things are measured.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#97

Post by AnimalMuppet »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #37
whimsicalism wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Monetizing a debt of this magnitude would be disastrous, but agreed this appears to be the path we are going on by default - given that we are consistently above the inflation mandate yet still lowering rates. It's no longer the early 20th, there are other competitive & well-run jurisdictions for creditors to dump their money in if they lose faith in the US.

> It's no longer the early 20th, there are other competitive & well-run jurisdictions for creditors to dump their money in if they lose faith in the US. Where, pray tell are these competitive and well-run jurisdictions? China has capital controls so that probably won't work. The EU might work if they ever get their sh*t together and centralise their bonds and markets, otherwise no. Like, I too believe that the US is…

Switzerland?

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#98

Post by kragen »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #89
kragen wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, no, it isn't. They say it isn't necessarily possible, but not self-contradictory as far as we know. It's good that you aren't going to debate this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive

You failed reading comprehension.

You think I'm the one who's failing here?

You said:

"(...) if you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to figure out FTL warp drives, it would just explain to you how it's not going to happen. It is impossible, the end. In fact the request is fantasy, nigh nonsensical and self-contradictory."

"Isn’t that what the greatest minds in physics would say as well? Yes, yes it is."

That is not in fact what the greatest minds in physics would say. Your meta-knowledge of physics has failed you here, resulting in you posting embarrassing misinformation. I'm just having to correct it to prevent you from misleading anyone else.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#99

Post by reaperducer »

whitehexagon wrote: post #93

For me the question is who is going to subscribe who hasnt already. And that is before we consider the next gen hardware that can run this stuff locally. But from what I see of the economy around me here, people just dont have the spare funds for LLM luxuries. It feels like 15+ years of wage deflation, and company streamlining, has removed what little spare spending power people had here. Not forgetting the inflation…

But from what I see of the economy around me here, people just dont have the spare funds for LLM luxuries.

If you have to pick between Disney+ for your kids and a chatbot subscription, it's a pretty easy choice.

More and more people are making choices like that.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#100

Post by kragen »

throwacct wrote: post #86
kragen wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which models have you found most valuable? Are they still worse than the proprietary ones?

We're testing different models depending on the business case. Our initial tests using 3, 7, and 8B models are working fine. We're not using the big ones since our use cases don't demand them.

Like Qwen, or Tulu3, or what?
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