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Seems obvious. AI is useful. But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be.
Why is that obvious? Even with effectively complete stagnation and just existing technology + limited RLVR, I can see how this could be trillion-dollars level useful.
AI is a risk. The thing we know is going to bite us in the butt is our continued massive sovereign debt burden and lack of any political will whatsoever to either increase taxes or reduce spending. The dollar is not going to do well this century and creditors confidence is already starting to decline. In fact, the further we go into debt - the more we are implicitly betting our society on an AI hail mary.
>> sovereign debt burden So all the entities that want to hold the debt (social security administration, mutual funds, pension funds etc) where should they go instead? Riskier assets is what you're saying right? Is that a great idea?
Probably the closest US bond equivalent would be debt from well-run Asian countries. I would avoid fixed-income dollar denominated assets.
From the actual report[1] >>> Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. Measures of risk premia across many risky asset classes have tightened further since the last FPC meeting in June 2025. On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused o…
AI is a risk. The thing we know is going to bite us in the butt is our continued massive sovereign debt burden and lack of any political will whatsoever to either increase taxes or reduce spending. The dollar is not going to do well this century and creditors confidence is already starting to decline. In fact, the further we go into debt - the more we are implicitly betting our society on an AI hail mary.
> either increase taxes or reduce spending I see this sentiment a lot, they are not equivalent. The US must reduce spending, if it wants to protect the dollar. Tax increases may also help. The relationship between tax rates, GDP, government revenue, the market value of new US debt, and the value of the dollar, is complicated and depends on uncertain estimates and models of the economy. Increasing taxes can reduce GDP…
A lot investment is banking on agi. There’s no sign agi is going to happen this decade.
What's a sign it's going to happen ever?
Human intelligence must be deterministic, any other conclusion is equivalent to the claim that there is some sort of "soul" for lack of better term. If human intelligence is deterministic, then it can be written in software.
Thus, if we continue to strive to design/create/invent such, it is inevitable that eventually it must happen. Failures to date can be attributed to various factors, but the gist is that we haven't yet identified the principles of intelligent software.
My guess is that we need less than 5 million years further development time even in a worst-case scenario. With luck and proper investment, we can get it down well below the 1 million year mark.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is that obvious? Even with effectively complete stagnation and just existing technology + limited RLVR, I can see how this could be trillion-dollars level useful.
The existing technology can’t even replace customer support systems, which seems like the lowest bar for a role that’s perfectly well suited to LLMs. How are you justifying the trillion dollar value?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is only 1 solution to the global debt crisis and thats inflating the currency. They did it after WW2 and they will have to do it now. There is no other option. They can do it sneaky through fake measures of inflation, keeping a lid on cost of living adjustments, but ultimately they soak bond holders and standard of living. You see it everywhere in things they can’t inflate. The price of houses and gold most obv…
Monetizing a debt of this magnitude would be disastrous, but agreed this appears to be the path we are going on by default - given that we are consistently above the inflation mandate yet still lowering rates. It's no longer the early 20th, there are other competitive & well-run jurisdictions for creditors to dump their money in if they lose faith in the US.
Where, pray tell are these competitive and well-run jurisdictions?
China has capital controls so that probably won't work. The EU might work if they ever get their sh*t together and centralise their bonds and markets, otherwise no.
Like, I too believe that the US is on an unsustainable path, but I just don't see where all that money is gonna go (specifically referring to the foreign investment in the US companies/markets here).
this is how capitalism does things. no one wants to overinvest but no one wants to be left behind and everyone is sure that either there's not gonna be a pop or they can sell before it pops. it has been educational to see how quickly the financier class has moved when they saw an opportunity to abandon labor entirely, though. that's worth remembering when they talk about how this system is the best one for everyone.
Leaving large portions of the population jobless surely can't be good for business and political stability.
Seems obvious. AI is useful. But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be.
> But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be. The market disagrees. But if you are sure of this, please show your positions. Then we can see how deeply you believe it. My guess is you’re short the most AI-exposed companies if you think they’re overvalued? Hedged maybe? You’ve found a clever way to invest in bankruptcy law firms that handle tech liquidations?
A lot investment is banking on agi. There’s no sign agi is going to happen this decade.
What's a sign it's going to happen ever?
It’s very possible that human beings today are already doing the most intelligent things they can given the data and resources they have available. This whole idea that there’s a magic property called intelligence that can solve every problem when it reaches a sufficient level, regardless of what data and resources it has to work with, increasingly just seems like the fantasy of people who think they’re very intelligent.